Key Takeaways
- • According to CryptoQuant's Oct. 13 report, large Bitcoin holders increased combined holdings to 3.03 million BTC, with accumulation reaching its fastest monthly pace since February.
- • US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $744.3 million in net outflows across six trading sessions through Oct. 12, per Farside Investors, with the heaviest selling of $484.9 million on Oct. 7.
- • ETFs drew $175.7 million in inflows on Oct. 13, led by Fidelity's FBTC at $103.1 million, reducing the net withdrawal total to $568.6 million across seven sessions.
- • Bitcoin trades near $83,000 ahead of the September CPI report, where Reuters-surveyed economists expect headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% from 3.4%.
- • Whale accumulation and ETF selling are diverging, leaving the market's direction dependent on Wednesday's inflation print and subsequent ETF flows.
Summary
Bitcoin's largest holders are accumulating again even as US spot ETFs post notable outflows, a split that sets up a test of the market's recovery ahead of Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index release. According to CryptoQuant's Oct. 13 report, whale balances (excluding exchange and mining pool addresses) recorded their highest 30-day growth rate since Feb. 11, and the annual change in whale holdings has moved back toward positive territory after contracting since September 2025. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, which combines 10 on-chain and market indicators, rose from 20 in late July to 90 on Sept. 26, before easing to 80, a level the firm considers consistent with an emerging bull market. Founder Ki Young Ju described the divergence between large and smaller participants as consistent with the early stages of a recovery.
Borrowing data points in the same direction. According to CoinRabbit, borrowers with loans above $10 million increased their USDT borrowing by 83.3% in September after a 9.2% contraction in July, while their average loan size rose 33.5%. Smaller borrowers pulled back, with loans below $100,000 down 17.2% and the $100,000 to $1 million category down 47.3%. The data does not show whether borrowed funds were reinvested in Bitcoin.
ETF flows have not confirmed this conviction. Farside Investors data shows $744.3 million in net outflows between Oct. 5 and Oct. 12, with $484.9 million leaving on Oct. 7 and $244.1 million the following day, as Bitcoin fell below $81,000. On Oct. 13, the funds attracted $175.7 million, with Fidelity's FBTC contributing $103.1 million and BlackRock's IBIT $65.9 million. CryptoQuant data shows US spot ETFs remain up roughly $1.5 billion year-to-date in 2026 after a $5.1 billion deficit in early July. Glassnode's Oct. 12 report showed Bitcoin perpetual futures traders as aggressive sellers, with cumulative volume delta at negative $681.8 million, while its monthly realized capitalization growth rose to 1.2% from 1.1%.
The macro backdrop centers on the CPI report, which could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy ahead of the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting. Reuters-surveyed economists expect headline inflation of 3.6% and core inflation of 2.5%, up from 2.4%, driven largely by energy costs. Elevated Treasury yields continue to weigh on risk assets. A hotter reading could reinforce restrictive policy expectations and extend selling pressure, while a softer print could ease yields and support renewed buying.
Technically, Glassnode identifies buying interest between $81,000 and $81,250 as support, while sellers are concentrated around $85,000 to $85,500, with further resistance near $86,500 to $86,750. A move above those levels could bring the $88,000 area into focus, where long-term holders have previously taken profits. Bitcoin has so far struggled to sustain a recovery above $85,000.
Borrowing data points in the same direction. According to CoinRabbit, borrowers with loans above $10 million increased their USDT borrowing by 83.3% in September after a 9.2% contraction in July, while their average loan size rose 33.5%. Smaller borrowers pulled back, with loans below $100,000 down 17.2% and the $100,000 to $1 million category down 47.3%. The data does not show whether borrowed funds were reinvested in Bitcoin.
ETF flows have not confirmed this conviction. Farside Investors data shows $744.3 million in net outflows between Oct. 5 and Oct. 12, with $484.9 million leaving on Oct. 7 and $244.1 million the following day, as Bitcoin fell below $81,000. On Oct. 13, the funds attracted $175.7 million, with Fidelity's FBTC contributing $103.1 million and BlackRock's IBIT $65.9 million. CryptoQuant data shows US spot ETFs remain up roughly $1.5 billion year-to-date in 2026 after a $5.1 billion deficit in early July. Glassnode's Oct. 12 report showed Bitcoin perpetual futures traders as aggressive sellers, with cumulative volume delta at negative $681.8 million, while its monthly realized capitalization growth rose to 1.2% from 1.1%.
The macro backdrop centers on the CPI report, which could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy ahead of the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting. Reuters-surveyed economists expect headline inflation of 3.6% and core inflation of 2.5%, up from 2.4%, driven largely by energy costs. Elevated Treasury yields continue to weigh on risk assets. A hotter reading could reinforce restrictive policy expectations and extend selling pressure, while a softer print could ease yields and support renewed buying.
Technically, Glassnode identifies buying interest between $81,000 and $81,250 as support, while sellers are concentrated around $85,000 to $85,500, with further resistance near $86,500 to $86,750. A move above those levels could bring the $88,000 area into focus, where long-term holders have previously taken profits. Bitcoin has so far struggled to sustain a recovery above $85,000.
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