Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin fell below $80,000 over the weekend of October 25-26, 2026, hitting a low of $79,280 before a small rebound, with roughly $400 million in long positions liquidated in four hours.
- • US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $442.6 million in weekly outflows, including $635.5 million on October 22, the largest single-day withdrawal since June; Ethereum funds lost $224.96 million on $14.5 billion in assets.
- • The article argues the decline is a macro-driven move tied to Federal Reserve policy uncertainty under Chair Kevin Warsh and AI-related credit tightening, rather than a crypto-specific event.
- • Technical levels cited include $79,800 as a key threshold, with a break below $79,578 potentially opening a move toward $78,000-$78,600 and then $72,000-$74,500.
- • Central bank decisions from the Fed, ECB and BOJ, plus Warsh, Lagarde and Ueda press conferences, are the near-term catalysts for breaking the $80,000-$86,000 trading range.
Summary
Flows data reinforced the bearish tone. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $442.6 million in net outflows over the week, including $635.5 million on October 22, the largest single-day withdrawal since June. Ethereum ETFs lost $224.96 million against roughly $14.5 billion in assets, a proportionally larger outflow than Bitcoin's. The article notes that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than $57 billion in net inflows since launch, with total assets of roughly $104-105 billion, and that BlackRock's IBIT drove the largest weekly inflows and outflows.
The article frames the selloff as macro-driven. Warsh declined at the IMF meetings in Bangkok on October 16 to commit to a view ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, which markets read as more accommodative and which reduced the odds of an October hike from above 25% to about 15%. The source states that Coinbase's institutional desk observed Bitcoin's correlation with semiconductor stocks has fallen to less than half its January level, and that the asset is increasingly trading as a liquidity-sensitive instrument. Concerns over AI fundraising and a sharp decline in CoreWeave shares, which fell 15.5% for the week, contributed to broader risk-off flows, according to the article.
Technical readings point to continued pressure. Bitcoin is trading below its 7-day, 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, and the article identifies $79,800 as a threshold. A daily close below $79,578 could target $78,000-$78,600, while the ETF break-even zone near the 200-day moving average at roughly $72,000-$74,500 is cited as a further downside reference. TradingView's overview signaled a buy on long-term moving averages but a neutral short-term reading, while InvestTech's algorithmic analysis returned a negative one- to six-week score. Options data showed implied volatility at record lows even as the DVOL index rose to the 84th percentile of its 90-day range, which the article reads as hedging rather than directional conviction.
On-chain data from KuCoin showed retail net inflows to major exchanges reached a six-month high of $10.75 billion, a figure the article notes could signal either accumulation or pending selling. Bitcoin has also traded at a discount on Coinbase relative to Binance for much of the month, a pattern the article links to weaker US demand.
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