Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin's recovery faces overhead supply between $85,000 and $87,500, where onchain data and liquidation clusters point to concentrated selling pressure, according to Glassnode.
- • Glassnode estimates coins acquired six to 12 months ago carry an average cost basis of approximately $86,700, and a daily close above that level would put those holders back in profit.
- • US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $635.6 million on Oct. 22 and $137.9 million on Oct. 23, per Farside Investors, after inflows that reached $526.7 million and $524.8 million on Oct. 19 and Oct. 21.
- • Corporate treasury purchases have not continued at a pace sufficient to sustain the rally, and $80,000 to $81,500 is cited as the key support zone tied to ETF and treasury acquisition costs.
- • A daily close above $87,500 would strengthen the case for a move toward $90,000, while a break below $80,000 would expose Bitcoin to further downside.
Summary
Bitcoin's recovery is encountering renewed resistance as overhead selling, weakening institutional demand and limited corporate buying constrain its path toward $90,000. According to DailyForex, buyers have supported the price around $80,000, but the rebound has yet to clear a key resistance zone between $85,000 and $87,500.
Onchain data provider Glassnode says Bitcoin's October 15 decline toward $80,000 drew buyers after briefly pushing the price below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, helping establish $80,000 as near-term support. Above spot price, however, Glassnode estimates coins acquired six to 12 months ago have an average cost basis of approximately $86,700, down from $88,000 the prior week, while coins bought one to two years ago sit near the $100,000 psychological level. Glassnode noted that the first of these levels sits within a zone of asks and liquidation clusters near $87,000, and that a daily close above $86.7K would return the six-to-12-month cohort to profit on average. Holders at breakeven may reduce exposure during a rally, adding selling pressure, while a move into the zone could force short positions to close and accelerate upward momentum.
Institutional demand is also inconsistent. Data from Farside Investors shows US spot Bitcoin ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows over the past two weeks, with net outflows of approximately $635.6 million on Oct. 22 and $137.9 million on Oct. 23. Even so, the four sessions from Oct. 19 through Oct. 22 produced a combined net inflow of about $439.1 million, a nuance DailyForex highlights as the broader picture. Corporate treasury demand is another constraint: Glassnode data indicates Bitcoin found support near the average acquisition costs of ETFs and treasuries at roughly $80,000 to $81,500, but treasury companies have not continued buying, limiting upward pressure. Treasury companies may remain profitable without adding materially to demand.
The article frames the $85,000 to $87,500 zone as the key test. A decisive daily close above $87,500, combined with a recovery in ETF inflows, would improve the case for $90,000. Continued institutional withdrawals and a breakdown below $80,000 would weaken bullish momentum and expose Bitcoin to further consolidation or downside. Liquidation-driven rallies may accelerate price moves but do not guarantee a sustained breakout.
Onchain data provider Glassnode says Bitcoin's October 15 decline toward $80,000 drew buyers after briefly pushing the price below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, helping establish $80,000 as near-term support. Above spot price, however, Glassnode estimates coins acquired six to 12 months ago have an average cost basis of approximately $86,700, down from $88,000 the prior week, while coins bought one to two years ago sit near the $100,000 psychological level. Glassnode noted that the first of these levels sits within a zone of asks and liquidation clusters near $87,000, and that a daily close above $86.7K would return the six-to-12-month cohort to profit on average. Holders at breakeven may reduce exposure during a rally, adding selling pressure, while a move into the zone could force short positions to close and accelerate upward momentum.
Institutional demand is also inconsistent. Data from Farside Investors shows US spot Bitcoin ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows over the past two weeks, with net outflows of approximately $635.6 million on Oct. 22 and $137.9 million on Oct. 23. Even so, the four sessions from Oct. 19 through Oct. 22 produced a combined net inflow of about $439.1 million, a nuance DailyForex highlights as the broader picture. Corporate treasury demand is another constraint: Glassnode data indicates Bitcoin found support near the average acquisition costs of ETFs and treasuries at roughly $80,000 to $81,500, but treasury companies have not continued buying, limiting upward pressure. Treasury companies may remain profitable without adding materially to demand.
The article frames the $85,000 to $87,500 zone as the key test. A decisive daily close above $87,500, combined with a recovery in ETF inflows, would improve the case for $90,000. Continued institutional withdrawals and a breakdown below $80,000 would weaken bullish momentum and expose Bitcoin to further consolidation or downside. Liquidation-driven rallies may accelerate price moves but do not guarantee a sustained breakout.
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