Central banks likely to boost gold buying despite Middle East tensions, says SocGen analysis.

Central banks remain committed to increasing gold reserves despite geopolitical uncertainties, though analyst interpretations of survey data differ on the pace of future purchases. The World Gold Council's 2026 survey, which drew responses from a record 79 central banks, found that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months. At the institutional level, 45% of respondents indicated their own central banks plan to add to reserves—a notable increase from 43% the previous year, underscoring a shift in how official sector institutions view gold within their allocation frameworks.

This sustained demand represents a fundamental change in reserve management philosophy. Rather than treating gold as a legacy holding, central banks increasingly view it as an active strategic asset capable of preserving purchasing power amid persistent inflation, anticipated currency weakness, and ongoing geopolitical volatility. Emerging market central banks have led this charge, with institutions from Poland, Turkey, India, and China emerging as some of the largest buyers in recent years, driving gold prices to multiyear highs above $5,100 per ounce.

However, Société Générale's commodity analysis team urges a more measured interpretation of these survey results. The French bank's analysts acknowledge that while respondent intentions are decidedly bullish, stated plans do not always translate directly into actual purchases. The firm argues that central banks have better visibility into portfolio positioning over six-month horizons than full-year periods, and therefore prefers to evaluate survey responses using a shorter timeframe. Applying this methodology, SocGen forecasts central bank purchases of between 100 and 120 tonnes of gold through the remainder of 2026.

SocGen specifically flagged Middle East tensions and disruptions to global energy markets as creating significant near-term headwinds for reserve managers. The analysts suggest that until regional conflicts resolve and energy prices stabilize, central banks may prioritize other policy considerations over physical gold acquisitions. Nevertheless, they concluded that even amid this uncertain environment, central banks retain sufficient scope to increase gold purchases, implying that geopolitical risks alone are unlikely to derail the multi-year trend of official sector accumulation.