Key Takeaways
- • Crypto market capitalisation rose 1.5% to $2.71T, but remains below its 50-day moving average, signaling continued market caution according to Investing.com's market overview.
- • Bitcoin traded just below $81K at the start of European trading after returning to the $80K region, a modest rebound on fairly low trading volumes.
- • The primary short-term risk cited is the Federal Reserve's rhetoric, with concerns that inflation and a willingness to raise rates could intensify sell-offs across markets.
- • Analysts diverge sharply on Bitcoin's outlook: Jason Calacanis forecasts a fall to $57K over 12 months, while Santiment and Strive point to potential recovery.
- • The Ethereum Glamsterdam hard fork activation on the Hoodi testnet, scheduled for 26 October, was postponed with no new date announced.
Summary
The crypto market capitalisation rebounded 1.5% to $2.71T, buoyed by positive momentum in traditional markets, according to Investing.com's FxPro Analyst Team. The market remains below its 50-day moving average, which the analysts read as a sign of caution. Among the most liquid coins, the ratio of gainers to losers over the prior 24 hours stood at 12:1, though the gains were concentrated in a handful of assets. Bitcoin returned to the $80K region, trading just below $81K at the start of European trading. The analysts described this as a modest attempt to move away from local lows against low trading volumes.
The analysts identify Federal Reserve communication as the main near-term risk. Concerns about inflation and a willingness to raise interest rates could intensify sell-offs across markets, including crypto. The FxPro team expects the Fed to be more cautious in its wording than markets anticipated a month earlier, given rapid deterioration in equity sentiment and fragility in debt markets. Despite high oil prices and inflation spreading into core commodities, a wait-and-see stance could bring buyers back and set up a new rally. A sustained move above the 50-day moving average could signal the end of the consolidation phase, while failure at that level could trigger capitulation among short-term traders and a decline toward $73K–$75K.
The article reports a range of views on Bitcoin's medium-term direction. Venture capitalist Jason Calacanis urged investors to sell amid outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and forecast a return to $57K within 12 months, with no new all-time high. Analyst Ansem revised his forecast to bearish after a medium-term trend break, citing a correction in the AI sector of the US stock market as the main risk, while remaining long-term bullish on certain on-chain projects. Moody's Analytics has identified a cryptocurrency market crash as one of the most likely economic shocks over the next 12–18 months, citing inflation and high borrowing rates that are hampering speculative investment.
On the constructive side, Santiment identifies four indicators supporting a possible BTC recovery: price dynamics, market participant positioning, on-chain metrics and macroeconomics, with rising US public debt providing long-term fundamental support. Strive notes that Bitcoin's price in ounces of gold has returned above its 200-day moving average after 316 days below it. According to Strive, three similar signals in the past preceded BTC gains of 42–142% over the following 12 months.
In protocol news, Ethereum developers fixed a bug related to validator deposits ahead of the upcoming Glamsterdam update. The activation of the hard fork on the Hoodi testnet, previously scheduled for 26 October, has been postponed, and developers have not yet announced a new date.
The analysts identify Federal Reserve communication as the main near-term risk. Concerns about inflation and a willingness to raise interest rates could intensify sell-offs across markets, including crypto. The FxPro team expects the Fed to be more cautious in its wording than markets anticipated a month earlier, given rapid deterioration in equity sentiment and fragility in debt markets. Despite high oil prices and inflation spreading into core commodities, a wait-and-see stance could bring buyers back and set up a new rally. A sustained move above the 50-day moving average could signal the end of the consolidation phase, while failure at that level could trigger capitulation among short-term traders and a decline toward $73K–$75K.
The article reports a range of views on Bitcoin's medium-term direction. Venture capitalist Jason Calacanis urged investors to sell amid outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and forecast a return to $57K within 12 months, with no new all-time high. Analyst Ansem revised his forecast to bearish after a medium-term trend break, citing a correction in the AI sector of the US stock market as the main risk, while remaining long-term bullish on certain on-chain projects. Moody's Analytics has identified a cryptocurrency market crash as one of the most likely economic shocks over the next 12–18 months, citing inflation and high borrowing rates that are hampering speculative investment.
On the constructive side, Santiment identifies four indicators supporting a possible BTC recovery: price dynamics, market participant positioning, on-chain metrics and macroeconomics, with rising US public debt providing long-term fundamental support. Strive notes that Bitcoin's price in ounces of gold has returned above its 200-day moving average after 316 days below it. According to Strive, three similar signals in the past preceded BTC gains of 42–142% over the following 12 months.
In protocol news, Ethereum developers fixed a bug related to validator deposits ahead of the upcoming Glamsterdam update. The activation of the hard fork on the Hoodi testnet, previously scheduled for 26 October, has been postponed, and developers have not yet announced a new date.
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