Key Takeaways
- • Grayscale Research identifies Bitcoin price bottom in the $65,000–$70,000 range, with the realized price for recent on-chain activity now at approximately $74,000, signaling short-term holders have returned to breakeven after a 20%+ rally from February lows near $63,000.
- • Bitcoin Bull Score Index has turned neutral for the first time during the current bear market cycle, a technical pattern that historically indicates early-phase bull market conditions, though cautionary precedent exists from March 2022 when neutral readings preceded further declines.
- • With Bitcoin trading around $76,000, institutional investors who accumulated near recent lows are now positioned at neutral cost basis, creating a structural floor and potential catalyst for momentum as additional buyers move into positive profit-and-loss territory.
- • Grayscale Research predicts Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in the first half of 2026, supported by strong macro demand, improving regulatory clarity, and evolving market cycles that no longer follow the traditional four-year halving schedule.
- • Institutional capital flows show measurable strength, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows including significant activity from BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), though Bitcoin remains materially below its October 2025 peak.
Summary
Grayscale Research, led by head of research Zach Pandl (former Goldman Sachs macro strategist), has issued a bullish assessment of Bitcoin's market positioning, arguing that on-chain data confirms a durable market bottom has formed and the early phase of a bull cycle may be underway. The firm identifies the bottom range at $65,000–$70,000, supported by a critical technical metric: the realized price for Bitcoin moved over the past one to three months currently sits near $74,000. This realized price represents the weighted average cost basis for coins actively trading on-chain and signals the breakeven point for the most recent cohort of market participants.
The significance of this metric lies in its behavioral implications. With Bitcoin trading near $76,000 as of mid-April 2026, short-term holders who accumulated during the February lows (approximately $63,000) have now recovered from underwater positions after more than a 20% rally. According to Grayscale's analysis, as more recent buyers move into positive profit-and-loss territory, sell pressure eases and investor sentiment shifts, creating conditions consistent with early bull market phases. Pandl explicitly noted that if Bitcoin price rises further, additional recent buyers entering profitability could serve as an early indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market.
Supporting this technical thesis, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index—a CryptoQuant metric—has entered neutral territory for the first time during the current bear market cycle, a pattern historically associated with bull market initiations. However, researchers acknowledged a cautionary precedent: the index briefly turned neutral in March 2022 before Bitcoin resumed its decline. The current environment differs materially, with multiple stabilization signals converging, though this distinction does not eliminate downside risk.
On the institutional demand side, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have begun recording net inflows, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leading capital accumulation. These flows indicate institutional-grade confidence in the market bottom, though the absolute scale remains modest relative to traditional safe-haven assets. Grayscale maintains that Bitcoin could establish new all-time highs during the first half of 2026, driven by strong macroeconomic demand and clarifying regulatory frameworks. The firm has also shifted its analytical framework, rejecting the traditional four-year halving cycle as a reliable predictor of bull market timing in current market conditions, suggesting that structural dynamics have evolved.
The investment tension remains clear: while on-chain data confirms recent buyers have reached breakeven and the Bull Score has turned neutral, Bitcoin still trades materially below its October 2025 peak, leaving significant overhead before prior bull market highs are reclaimed. This configuration creates both a structural floor for portfolio risk management and continued uncertainty regarding whether the market is experiencing a durable bull inception or a tactical bear market bounce.
The significance of this metric lies in its behavioral implications. With Bitcoin trading near $76,000 as of mid-April 2026, short-term holders who accumulated during the February lows (approximately $63,000) have now recovered from underwater positions after more than a 20% rally. According to Grayscale's analysis, as more recent buyers move into positive profit-and-loss territory, sell pressure eases and investor sentiment shifts, creating conditions consistent with early bull market phases. Pandl explicitly noted that if Bitcoin price rises further, additional recent buyers entering profitability could serve as an early indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market.
Supporting this technical thesis, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index—a CryptoQuant metric—has entered neutral territory for the first time during the current bear market cycle, a pattern historically associated with bull market initiations. However, researchers acknowledged a cautionary precedent: the index briefly turned neutral in March 2022 before Bitcoin resumed its decline. The current environment differs materially, with multiple stabilization signals converging, though this distinction does not eliminate downside risk.
On the institutional demand side, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have begun recording net inflows, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leading capital accumulation. These flows indicate institutional-grade confidence in the market bottom, though the absolute scale remains modest relative to traditional safe-haven assets. Grayscale maintains that Bitcoin could establish new all-time highs during the first half of 2026, driven by strong macroeconomic demand and clarifying regulatory frameworks. The firm has also shifted its analytical framework, rejecting the traditional four-year halving cycle as a reliable predictor of bull market timing in current market conditions, suggesting that structural dynamics have evolved.
The investment tension remains clear: while on-chain data confirms recent buyers have reached breakeven and the Bull Score has turned neutral, Bitcoin still trades materially below its October 2025 peak, leaving significant overhead before prior bull market highs are reclaimed. This configuration creates both a structural floor for portfolio risk management and continued uncertainty regarding whether the market is experiencing a durable bull inception or a tactical bear market bounce.
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