Key Takeaways
- • Galaxy Digital's head of research Alex Thorn reports that the 2024–2025 period saw the largest activation of dormant bitcoin since 2017, with a major redistribution wave now approaching completion.
- • Old bitcoin activation in 2026 is projected to fall to less than half of 2025 levels, signaling the cycle of long-dormant coin movements is substantially exhausted.
- • Galaxy Digital facilitated one of the largest notional bitcoin transactions on record—the sale of over 80,000 BTC valued at approximately $9 billion for a Satoshi-era investor, executed as part of the investor's estate planning strategy.
- • Quantum computing concerns have not been cited by major bitcoin holders as a primary motivation for selling, though some institutional investors report quantum threats as a reason they remain hesitant to increase holdings; Galaxy Digital notes quantum-protection mechanisms are under active development.
- • Historical data shows waves of old bitcoin activation correlate with periods of strong price appreciation in 2017, 2021, 2024, and 2025, indicating long-term holders tend to liquidate positions during market rallies.
Summary
The large-scale movement of dormant bitcoin that characterized 2024 and 2025 is nearing its conclusion, according to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital. The two-year period represents the most significant activation of old bitcoin holdings since 2017, driven primarily by extended cryptocurrency market strength and price appreciation. Thorn's research indicates that the volume of "awakened" bitcoin—coins that have remained inactive in wallets for extended periods—peaked during this cycle and is now declining sharply.
Looking forward to 2026, Thorn projects that the activation volume of old bitcoin will decline to less than half of 2025 levels, suggesting the large-scale redistribution event is substantially complete. His analysis demonstrates a clear historical pattern: old bitcoin activation surges coincide with periods of robust price growth, with previous peaks occurring in 2017 and 2021. This correlation suggests long-term holders have used market rallies as opportunities to liquidate dormant positions accumulated during early cryptocurrency adoption phases.
Regarding the underlying drivers of these sales, Thorn addressed speculation about quantum computing threats prompting liquidations. While quantum computing capabilities present a theoretical risk to cryptocurrency security, Thorn reported that Galaxy Digital's interactions with major bitcoin holders have not surfaced quantum concerns as a stated motivation for selling. However, he acknowledged that some institutional investors cite potential quantum threats as a factor restraining them from increasing bitcoin allocations. Galaxy Digital notes that quantum-resistant security protocols remain under development, which should attenuate these concerns over time.
Galaxy Digital itself has executed several significant bitcoin transactions, most notably the facilitation of an 80,000 BTC sale—valued at approximately $9 billion—on behalf of a Satoshi-era investor. This transaction represents one of the largest notional bitcoin sales on record and was characterized as part of the investor's broader estate planning and diversification strategy. Supplementary data from CryptoQuant indicates that despite the large-scale old-coin selling, long-term investors continue accumulating bitcoin during market bottoming phases, suggesting bifurcated behavior among institutional market participants.
Looking forward to 2026, Thorn projects that the activation volume of old bitcoin will decline to less than half of 2025 levels, suggesting the large-scale redistribution event is substantially complete. His analysis demonstrates a clear historical pattern: old bitcoin activation surges coincide with periods of robust price growth, with previous peaks occurring in 2017 and 2021. This correlation suggests long-term holders have used market rallies as opportunities to liquidate dormant positions accumulated during early cryptocurrency adoption phases.
Regarding the underlying drivers of these sales, Thorn addressed speculation about quantum computing threats prompting liquidations. While quantum computing capabilities present a theoretical risk to cryptocurrency security, Thorn reported that Galaxy Digital's interactions with major bitcoin holders have not surfaced quantum concerns as a stated motivation for selling. However, he acknowledged that some institutional investors cite potential quantum threats as a factor restraining them from increasing bitcoin allocations. Galaxy Digital notes that quantum-resistant security protocols remain under development, which should attenuate these concerns over time.
Galaxy Digital itself has executed several significant bitcoin transactions, most notably the facilitation of an 80,000 BTC sale—valued at approximately $9 billion—on behalf of a Satoshi-era investor. This transaction represents one of the largest notional bitcoin sales on record and was characterized as part of the investor's broader estate planning and diversification strategy. Supplementary data from CryptoQuant indicates that despite the large-scale old-coin selling, long-term investors continue accumulating bitcoin during market bottoming phases, suggesting bifurcated behavior among institutional market participants.
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