Key Takeaways
- • Grayscale Research identifies a sustainable market bottom in Bitcoin within the $65,000–$70,000 range, supported by on-chain blockchain data and a nearly 20% rally since February 5th that brought prices to approximately $76,000–$74,000.
- • Bitcoin's Realized Price metric—representing the average cost basis across all circulating coins—has reached ~$74,000, signaling that short-term holders (those holding less than ~155 days) have collectively returned to profitability, a historically bullish behavioral indicator.
- • The transition of recent buyers into breakeven territory reduces near-term sell pressure and could mark the early phase of a new bull cycle, with Grayscale's Head of Research Zach Pandl noting this condition historically correlates with sustained market rallies, as evidenced by the 2021 bull run.
- • Approximately 60% of Bitcoin's circulating supply remains unmoved for over one year, while 16.4% is permanently locked in ETFs, sovereign reserves, and corporate treasuries, indicating structural supply constraints that support price stability.
- • Despite the identified bottom formation, Bitcoin remains below its October 2025 peak levels; however, Grayscale's cycle indicators suggest the current environment is still in early bull market phases compared to historical price peak conditions.
Summary
Grayscale Investments, a major digital asset manager, has published research arguing that Bitcoin has formed a durable market bottom and that the early phases of a new bull cycle may be underway. The analysis is grounded in blockchain data and on-chain metrics that track investor behavior and capital flow patterns. According to Grayscale Research, Bitcoin rallied nearly 20% from a February 5th low of approximately $63,000, climbing to the $74,000–$76,000 range by late April 2026, marking a critical inflection point for the market.
The cornerstone of Grayscale's bottom thesis is the Bitcoin Realized Price metric, which measures the average cost basis at which all coins in circulation were last transacted. Zach Pandl, head of Grayscale Research, highlighted that this metric has climbed to approximately $74,000. This figure is significant because it represents the breakeven point for investors who entered the market over recent months. When the spot price trades above the Realized Price, the average holder moves into profit—a condition that historically precedes sustained bull markets. Critically, short-term holders (those holding Bitcoin for less than approximately 155 days) have now collectively transitioned into profitability, reducing immediate sell pressure from recent market entrants and potentially signaling increased market confidence.
Grayscale's research also underscores the structural health of Bitcoin's supply dynamics. Approximately 60% of Bitcoin's total supply has remained unmoved for over one year, while 16.4% is permanently locked within ETFs, sovereign reserves, and corporate treasuries. These figures indicate substantial supply constraints that support price stability and reduce volatility from forced liquidations. The firm's broader cycle analysis suggests that common bull market indicators, while below historical peak levels, are positioning the market in an early-stage bull phase relative to prior cycles. Pandl noted that the transparent nature of Bitcoin's blockchain allows for granular analysis of investor behavior, enabling data-driven assessments of market bottoms versus speculative inflection points.
While Bitcoin remains below its October 2025 peak, Grayscale's assessment that a sustainable bottom has formed at $65,000–$70,000 reflects confidence in the underlying on-chain fundamentals. The transition of short-term holders into profit, combined with locked supply and reduced selling pressure, creates the foundational conditions for the initial phase of a multi-month bull cycle, though institutional investors should note that prices have not yet exceeded prior peak levels and broader macroeconomic conditions remain a material risk factor.
The cornerstone of Grayscale's bottom thesis is the Bitcoin Realized Price metric, which measures the average cost basis at which all coins in circulation were last transacted. Zach Pandl, head of Grayscale Research, highlighted that this metric has climbed to approximately $74,000. This figure is significant because it represents the breakeven point for investors who entered the market over recent months. When the spot price trades above the Realized Price, the average holder moves into profit—a condition that historically precedes sustained bull markets. Critically, short-term holders (those holding Bitcoin for less than approximately 155 days) have now collectively transitioned into profitability, reducing immediate sell pressure from recent market entrants and potentially signaling increased market confidence.
Grayscale's research also underscores the structural health of Bitcoin's supply dynamics. Approximately 60% of Bitcoin's total supply has remained unmoved for over one year, while 16.4% is permanently locked within ETFs, sovereign reserves, and corporate treasuries. These figures indicate substantial supply constraints that support price stability and reduce volatility from forced liquidations. The firm's broader cycle analysis suggests that common bull market indicators, while below historical peak levels, are positioning the market in an early-stage bull phase relative to prior cycles. Pandl noted that the transparent nature of Bitcoin's blockchain allows for granular analysis of investor behavior, enabling data-driven assessments of market bottoms versus speculative inflection points.
While Bitcoin remains below its October 2025 peak, Grayscale's assessment that a sustainable bottom has formed at $65,000–$70,000 reflects confidence in the underlying on-chain fundamentals. The transition of short-term holders into profit, combined with locked supply and reduced selling pressure, creates the foundational conditions for the initial phase of a multi-month bull cycle, though institutional investors should note that prices have not yet exceeded prior peak levels and broader macroeconomic conditions remain a material risk factor.
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