Key Takeaways
- • Grayscale Research declares Bitcoin has bottomed in the $65,000–$70,000 range, contrasting with broader market consensus that places the cycle low in late 2026.
- • Bitcoin's 20% rally from its February 5 low near $63,000 has returned recent buyers to breakeven, based on Grayscale's realized price metric (approximately $74,000 for coins moved in the past 1–3 months).
- • Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, argues that further price appreciation pushing recent cohorts into positive territory would signal the "first phase of a bull market" after capitulation has run its course.
- • The analysis rests on on-chain realized price methodology, which measures aggregate cost basis and serves as a proxy for market breakeven levels; current price alignment with this metric supports durability of the proposed floor.
- • Dissenting views exist: Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, maintains his base case for the cycle trough in October 2026, illustrating continued disagreement on Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.
Summary
Grayscale Research has issued a contrarian call that Bitcoin has already found its market bottom in the $65,000–$70,000 range, positioning the asset in early-stage bull market signals. This thesis diverges sharply from wider institutional consensus, which anticipates a deeper low later in 2026. According to Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, Bitcoin's 20% climb from its February 5 low near $63,000 has returned recent market entrants to breakeven levels—a technical milestone he views as consistent with capitulation concluding and the onset of a durable floor.
Grayscale's argument centers on realized price, an on-chain metric that calculates the average cost basis of Bitcoin based on the most recent blockchain movements. For coins that changed hands within the past 1–3 months, the firm estimates realized price at approximately $74,000—just above current price levels as of the April 2026 analysis date. This tight alignment is material: when recent buyers move from underwater to positive profit-and-loss territory, Pandl notes, it "can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market." The thesis assumes that if price continues higher, the fresh cohort of buyers would transition into profitable positions, reinforcing market sentiment and suggesting capitulation has already exhausted itself.
While Bitcoin remains substantially below its October peak, Grayscale contends the February rebound carved out a durable structural floor rather than a bear-market bounce. The firm's analysis integrates on-chain cost-basis data with broader market structure, arguing that the price rebound aligns with typical capitulation patterns and is sufficient to mark a meaningful inflection point.
Not all market observers concur. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, outlined to BeInCrypto that his base case still points to October 2026 as the cycle trough, maintaining that further downside remains possible. This disagreement underscores the ongoing analytical divide on Bitcoin's near-term floor and the sustainability of Grayscale's bottom call.
Grayscale's argument centers on realized price, an on-chain metric that calculates the average cost basis of Bitcoin based on the most recent blockchain movements. For coins that changed hands within the past 1–3 months, the firm estimates realized price at approximately $74,000—just above current price levels as of the April 2026 analysis date. This tight alignment is material: when recent buyers move from underwater to positive profit-and-loss territory, Pandl notes, it "can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market." The thesis assumes that if price continues higher, the fresh cohort of buyers would transition into profitable positions, reinforcing market sentiment and suggesting capitulation has already exhausted itself.
While Bitcoin remains substantially below its October peak, Grayscale contends the February rebound carved out a durable structural floor rather than a bear-market bounce. The firm's analysis integrates on-chain cost-basis data with broader market structure, arguing that the price rebound aligns with typical capitulation patterns and is sufficient to mark a meaningful inflection point.
Not all market observers concur. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, outlined to BeInCrypto that his base case still points to October 2026 as the cycle trough, maintaining that further downside remains possible. This disagreement underscores the ongoing analytical divide on Bitcoin's near-term floor and the sustainability of Grayscale's bottom call.
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