Key Takeaways
- • Grayscale Research's composite onchain valuation indicator confirms Bitcoin is undervalued at current levels following its drop below $60,000, though the depth of undervaluation remains shallower than prior cycle bottoms such as the 2022 post-FTX collapse.
- • The CLARITY Act pending in the U.S. Senate represents a critical catalyst that could unlock fresh institutional Bitcoin inflows and support price recovery.
- • Stabilization of leveraged Bitcoin holder balance sheets is essential to preventing further downside pressure; deterioration in this metric could signal continued weakness.
- • Grayscale Research recommends dollar-cost averaging strategies for long-term investors at current price levels, based on onchain metrics signaling relative undervaluation.
- • Structural market changes and a more muted preceding bull market explain why current bearish extremes fall short of historical cycle lows in valuation terms.
Summary
Grayscale Research released findings on June 10, 2026 indicating that Bitcoin's recent decline below $60,000 has created an undervaluation opportunity when measured against onchain valuation metrics, though the magnitude of this discount does not match the severity observed at previous market bottoms. Head of Research Zach Pandl constructed a composite onchain indicator using a weighted average of three distinct valuation measures, with the output confirming that Bitcoin's price sits materially below its long-term historical average.
The research distinguishes between relative and absolute undervaluation. While current onchain signals confirm below-average pricing conditions, the firm notes that readings fall short of the extreme undervaluation witnessed at prior cyclical extremes. Grayscale identified the 2022 post-FTX collapse as the clearest historical comparison point, when onchain metrics reflected far deeper discount levels than present data suggests. According to Pandl, this differential stems from a more muted bull market preceding the current correction, combined with structural market changes that have altered the shape and depth of bear phases.
The research identifies two critical catalysts poised to determine Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. First, the CLARITY Act—legislation pending in the U.S. Senate—could unlock material institutional capital inflows by clarifying regulatory frameworks. Second, the stability or deterioration of leveraged Bitcoin holder balance sheets will be instrumental in preventing further price declines. If leveraged positions destabilize, downward pressure could intensify; conversely, stabilization would support floor-building dynamics.
For institutional investors and long-term holders, Grayscale recommends implementing dollar-cost averaging strategies at current price levels, supported by the composite onchain indicator's undervaluation signal. This recommendation balances the confirmation of below-average pricing with recognition that the current discount, while significant, does not yet reflect the extreme conditions that typically mark capitulation phases in prior market cycles.
The research distinguishes between relative and absolute undervaluation. While current onchain signals confirm below-average pricing conditions, the firm notes that readings fall short of the extreme undervaluation witnessed at prior cyclical extremes. Grayscale identified the 2022 post-FTX collapse as the clearest historical comparison point, when onchain metrics reflected far deeper discount levels than present data suggests. According to Pandl, this differential stems from a more muted bull market preceding the current correction, combined with structural market changes that have altered the shape and depth of bear phases.
The research identifies two critical catalysts poised to determine Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. First, the CLARITY Act—legislation pending in the U.S. Senate—could unlock material institutional capital inflows by clarifying regulatory frameworks. Second, the stability or deterioration of leveraged Bitcoin holder balance sheets will be instrumental in preventing further price declines. If leveraged positions destabilize, downward pressure could intensify; conversely, stabilization would support floor-building dynamics.
For institutional investors and long-term holders, Grayscale recommends implementing dollar-cost averaging strategies at current price levels, supported by the composite onchain indicator's undervaluation signal. This recommendation balances the confirmation of below-average pricing with recognition that the current discount, while significant, does not yet reflect the extreme conditions that typically mark capitulation phases in prior market cycles.
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