Key Takeaways
- • Grayscale Research says Bitcoin's roughly 30% drawdown since early October is in line with the historical average and is the ninth meaningful pullback since the November 2022 bottom, and it does not expect a deep, prolonged cyclical decline.
- • Grayscale expects Bitcoin could make new highs in 2026, citing no parabolic price increase this cycle, a shift toward ETP and digital asset treasury capital, and a supportive macro backdrop.
- • Near-term bottoming signals are mixed: Bitcoin put skew is elevated and DATs trade below mNAV 1.0, while futures open interest, ETP flows and on-chain OG selling remain weak.
- • Privacy-focused crypto assets led November gains, with Monero up 30%, Decred up 40% and Zcash up 8%, and the AI crypto sector fell 25%.
- • According to Bloomberg data, 124 US-listed crypto-focused ETPs hold $145bn in assets under management, and XRP and Dogecoin ETPs began trading in November.
Summary
Grayscale Research, in its November 2025 monthly report, says the Bitcoin drawdown that began in early October continued through most of November, with the price falling 32% from peak to trough. Grayscale describes this as close to the historical average: Bitcoin has declined at least 10% about 50 times since 2010, with those episodes averaging a 30% peak-to-trough decline. Since the November 2022 bottom, it has experienced nine such pullbacks.
Grayscale distinguishes between cyclical drawdowns, which last two to three years and have occurred roughly once every four years, and bull market drawdowns, which average a 25% decline and last two to three months. The firm argues the four-year cycle thesis will prove incorrect, pointing to the absence of a parabolic price rise this cycle, a shift in market structure toward ETPs and digital asset treasuries rather than retail exchanges, and a favorable macro backdrop. It states that Bitcoin could potentially make new highs next year.
Grayscale sees some signs of a possible bottom. Bitcoin put option skew is very high, particularly at three- and six-month tenors, suggesting investors have extensively hedged downside, and the largest DATs trade below 1.0 mNAV. However, futures open interest declined further in November, ETP flows were negative until late in the month, and on-chain data showed a late-November spike in Coin Days Destroyed, which Grayscale says could indicate selling by a large longtime holder.
Beyond Bitcoin, privacy-focused assets outperformed. Grayscale's Currencies Crypto Sector was the best-performing segment, while the AI Crypto Sector slid 25%. Grayscale highlighted adoption of Near Intents and the rapid growth of Coinbase's x402 payment protocol, whose daily transactions rose from under 50,000 in mid-October to more than 2 million by late November, per Dune Analytics. Per Bloomberg data as of November 26, there are 124 US-listed crypto ETPs with $145bn in assets under management.
Grayscale identifies the December 10 Federal Reserve meeting as the key short-term swing factor. It notes press reports that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate to replace Fed Chair Powell, and says lower real rates would be negative for the dollar and supportive for Bitcoin and gold. Grayscale also cites bipartisan crypto market structure legislation, with a draft released by the Senate Agriculture Committee in November, as a potential catalyst. Its market cap-weighted Crypto Sectors index is down 8% year to date.
Grayscale distinguishes between cyclical drawdowns, which last two to three years and have occurred roughly once every four years, and bull market drawdowns, which average a 25% decline and last two to three months. The firm argues the four-year cycle thesis will prove incorrect, pointing to the absence of a parabolic price rise this cycle, a shift in market structure toward ETPs and digital asset treasuries rather than retail exchanges, and a favorable macro backdrop. It states that Bitcoin could potentially make new highs next year.
Grayscale sees some signs of a possible bottom. Bitcoin put option skew is very high, particularly at three- and six-month tenors, suggesting investors have extensively hedged downside, and the largest DATs trade below 1.0 mNAV. However, futures open interest declined further in November, ETP flows were negative until late in the month, and on-chain data showed a late-November spike in Coin Days Destroyed, which Grayscale says could indicate selling by a large longtime holder.
Beyond Bitcoin, privacy-focused assets outperformed. Grayscale's Currencies Crypto Sector was the best-performing segment, while the AI Crypto Sector slid 25%. Grayscale highlighted adoption of Near Intents and the rapid growth of Coinbase's x402 payment protocol, whose daily transactions rose from under 50,000 in mid-October to more than 2 million by late November, per Dune Analytics. Per Bloomberg data as of November 26, there are 124 US-listed crypto ETPs with $145bn in assets under management.
Grayscale identifies the December 10 Federal Reserve meeting as the key short-term swing factor. It notes press reports that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate to replace Fed Chair Powell, and says lower real rates would be negative for the dollar and supportive for Bitcoin and gold. Grayscale also cites bipartisan crypto market structure legislation, with a draft released by the Senate Agriculture Committee in November, as a potential catalyst. Its market cap-weighted Crypto Sectors index is down 8% year to date.
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