Key Takeaways
- • Mike Novogratz predicts the US CLARITY Act will pass in May 2026 and be signed into law by June, establishing regulatory clarity between the SEC and CFTC for the cryptocurrency industry.
- • Over 120 industry organizations sent a joint letter to lawmakers on April 23, 2026, urging the Senate Banking Committee to expedite a vote, signaling significant institutional pressure for passage.
- • Prediction market odds for passage have declined from 80% to approximately 53%, reflecting uncertainty despite industry momentum; Galaxy Digital's research head Alex Thorn estimates only a 50% probability of passage in 2026.
- • The CLARITY Act remains at a critical juncture with no Senate markup date scheduled, leaving the bill vulnerable to delays or abandonment if not advanced in the coming weeks despite reported support from Senate leader Chuck Schumer.
- • The bill aims to clarify regulatory responsibilities and compliance pathways for cryptocurrency businesses, addressing a longstanding dispute between banks and crypto companies that stalled progress following House approval in July 2025.
Summary
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has publicly forecast that the US CLARITY Act—a major piece of cryptocurrency legislation—will advance through the Senate in May 2026 and receive presidential signature by June. The bill represents a pivotal moment for the crypto industry, as it would establish explicit regulatory boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), creating a clearer compliance framework for cryptocurrency businesses operating in the United States.
The legislation has garnered substantial industry backing. More than 120 cryptocurrency and financial organizations jointly submitted a letter to lawmakers on April 23, 2026, requesting swift action from the Senate Banking Committee. However, momentum remains fragile. Prediction markets have reflected declining confidence, with passage odds falling from 80% to approximately 53% in recent weeks—a significant erosion tied to procedural delays. Galaxy Digital's research head Alex Thorn provided a more cautious assessment, placing the probability of passage in 2026 at only 50%, underscoring the time-sensitive nature of the legislative effort.
A critical impediment to passage has been unresolved disputes between traditional banking interests and cryptocurrency firms regarding stablecoin regulation and jurisdictional authority. These disagreements stalled forward momentum following the bill's House approval in July 2025. Currently, no Senate markup date has been formally scheduled, creating uncertainty about whether the bill will advance or be sidelined. Despite these obstacles, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has reportedly expressed interest in the legislation, potentially providing a pathway to bipartisan support that could facilitate passage.
The stakes are high for institutional adoption of cryptocurrency assets. Clear regulatory classification would remove a significant barrier to mainstream institutional participation, as asset managers, pension funds, and other institutional investors have cited regulatory uncertainty as a constraint on capital deployment into digital assets. Success or failure of the CLARITY Act in the coming weeks will likely influence both industry sentiment and the trajectory of institutional crypto adoption through the remainder of 2026.
The legislation has garnered substantial industry backing. More than 120 cryptocurrency and financial organizations jointly submitted a letter to lawmakers on April 23, 2026, requesting swift action from the Senate Banking Committee. However, momentum remains fragile. Prediction markets have reflected declining confidence, with passage odds falling from 80% to approximately 53% in recent weeks—a significant erosion tied to procedural delays. Galaxy Digital's research head Alex Thorn provided a more cautious assessment, placing the probability of passage in 2026 at only 50%, underscoring the time-sensitive nature of the legislative effort.
A critical impediment to passage has been unresolved disputes between traditional banking interests and cryptocurrency firms regarding stablecoin regulation and jurisdictional authority. These disagreements stalled forward momentum following the bill's House approval in July 2025. Currently, no Senate markup date has been formally scheduled, creating uncertainty about whether the bill will advance or be sidelined. Despite these obstacles, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has reportedly expressed interest in the legislation, potentially providing a pathway to bipartisan support that could facilitate passage.
The stakes are high for institutional adoption of cryptocurrency assets. Clear regulatory classification would remove a significant barrier to mainstream institutional participation, as asset managers, pension funds, and other institutional investors have cited regulatory uncertainty as a constraint on capital deployment into digital assets. Success or failure of the CLARITY Act in the coming weeks will likely influence both industry sentiment and the trajectory of institutional crypto adoption through the remainder of 2026.
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