Key Takeaways
- • Rosenblatt Securities reiterated its Buy rating on Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY) with a $35 price target, implying 74% upside from the $20.13 reference price at the time of the note.
- • Galaxy Digital completed Helios Phase I data center, supplying CoreWeave with 133 MW of critical IT capacity under a 15-year lease agreement, with Rosenblatt projecting approximately $80 million in quarterly revenue beginning Q3 2026 and project-level adjusted EBITDA margins exceeding 90%.
- • Rosenblatt raised Q3 2026 revenue estimates to $7.81 billion from $6.66 billion but reduced full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a $236.4 million loss from a $300,000 loss, citing timing of cash generation from data-center operations.
- • Phase II will add 260 MW of critical IT capacity with deliveries scheduled for Q2 2027, supported by a $3.507 billion senior secured notes offering at 9.875% coupon maturing in 2031; analyst estimates Data Centers gross profit will increase approximately 15-fold from Q2 2026 through Q4 2028.
- • Galaxy's Data Centers segment generated $26 million in revenue and $11.5 million of adjusted EBITDA during its first revenue-producing quarter in Q2 2026, with contracted Phase II and Phase III deliveries projected to contribute over $1 billion to adjusted gross profit in 2028.
Summary
Rosenblatt Securities analyst Chris Brendler reiterated a Buy rating on Galaxy Digital Holdings, maintaining a $35 price target that represents 74% upside from the analyst's reference price of $20.13. The reaffirmation follows Galaxy's completion of Helios Phase I, a significant data-center infrastructure project designed to support high-performance computing and artificial intelligence workloads.
The completed Helios Phase I represents a critical inflection point in Galaxy's business transformation. The facility supplied CoreWeave with 133 MW of critical IT load capacity under a 15-year lease agreement, marking the company's transition from a pure-play digital asset manager to an AI infrastructure provider. Rosenblatt projects the completed Phase I capacity will generate approximately $80 million in quarterly revenue beginning in Q3 2026, with project-level adjusted EBITDA margins expected to exceed 90% once fully operational.
The analyst revised financial guidance reflects the timing of revenue recognition and operational buildout. Rosenblatt raised its Q3 2026 revenue estimate to $7.81 billion from $6.66 billion but reduced full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a $236.4 million loss from an initial $300,000 loss projection. This downward adjustment stems from accelerated capital deployment and debt-service costs associated with the $3.507 billion senior secured notes offering priced at 9.875% maturing in 2031. However, 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance was increased to $273.7 million from $272.2 million, signaling confidence in near-term cash generation as Helios Phase I reaches full capacity.
Galaxy's Data Centers segment demonstrated early operational success, generating $26 million in revenue and $11.5 million of adjusted EBITDA during its first revenue-producing quarter in Q2 2026, though the company reported an $85 million net loss and $77 million adjusted EBITDA loss on a consolidated basis. Phase II construction will add 260 MW of additional critical IT capacity with initial data-hall deliveries scheduled for Q2 2027. Rosenblatt forecasts Data Centers gross profit will increase approximately 15-fold from Q2 2026 through Q4 2028, with contracted Phase II and Phase III deliveries projected to contribute more than $1 billion to adjusted gross profit in 2028, before potential leases for an additional 830 MW of approved Helios capacity under development.
The completed Helios Phase I represents a critical inflection point in Galaxy's business transformation. The facility supplied CoreWeave with 133 MW of critical IT load capacity under a 15-year lease agreement, marking the company's transition from a pure-play digital asset manager to an AI infrastructure provider. Rosenblatt projects the completed Phase I capacity will generate approximately $80 million in quarterly revenue beginning in Q3 2026, with project-level adjusted EBITDA margins expected to exceed 90% once fully operational.
The analyst revised financial guidance reflects the timing of revenue recognition and operational buildout. Rosenblatt raised its Q3 2026 revenue estimate to $7.81 billion from $6.66 billion but reduced full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a $236.4 million loss from an initial $300,000 loss projection. This downward adjustment stems from accelerated capital deployment and debt-service costs associated with the $3.507 billion senior secured notes offering priced at 9.875% maturing in 2031. However, 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance was increased to $273.7 million from $272.2 million, signaling confidence in near-term cash generation as Helios Phase I reaches full capacity.
Galaxy's Data Centers segment demonstrated early operational success, generating $26 million in revenue and $11.5 million of adjusted EBITDA during its first revenue-producing quarter in Q2 2026, though the company reported an $85 million net loss and $77 million adjusted EBITDA loss on a consolidated basis. Phase II construction will add 260 MW of additional critical IT capacity with initial data-hall deliveries scheduled for Q2 2027. Rosenblatt forecasts Data Centers gross profit will increase approximately 15-fold from Q2 2026 through Q4 2028, with contracted Phase II and Phase III deliveries projected to contribute more than $1 billion to adjusted gross profit in 2028, before potential leases for an additional 830 MW of approved Helios capacity under development.
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