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Three key factors set to determine bitcoin's fate: Fed rates, CLARITY Act, Strategy - 디지털투데이

Reported by Digitaltoday
Jun 30, 2026· 3 min read
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Key Takeaways
  • • The CLARITY Act, the most comprehensive crypto regulation bill ever to pass a U.S. congressional chamber, passed the House on July 17, 2025 with a 294-134 bipartisan vote but remains stalled in the Senate as of June 2026.
  • • The legislation establishes federal jurisdiction clarification between the SEC and CFTC by defining blockchain-native tokens as digital commodities rather than securities, narrowing SEC authority and creating a predictable regulatory framework for digital assets.
  • • Three unresolved legislative issues block Senate passage: stablecoin yield language, decentralized finance (DeFi) provisions, and comprehensive regulatory coverage, according to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott.
  • • Market participants view the CLARITY Act as a critical catalyst for institutional capital inflows; passage is expected to drive major liquidity events alongside lower U.S. interest rates and easing geopolitical tensions—three factors identified as determinants of Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.
  • • The bill addresses a decade-long regulatory vacuum in which the SEC pursued enforcement-based regulation rather than legislation, leaving companies, exchanges, and institutional investors operating under permanent legal uncertainty regarding asset classification and compliance pathways.
Summary
The CLARITY Act represents a watershed moment for cryptocurrency regulation in the United States. Formally titled the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, the legislation passed the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, with overwhelming bipartisan support (294-134 vote), marking the first time comprehensive crypto market structure legislation has cleared a full chamber of Congress. However, as of mid-2026, the bill remains stalled in the Senate despite clearing the Banking Committee, facing three substantive obstacles that have prevented floor consideration.

The core function of the CLARITY Act is to replace ad-hoc enforcement-based regulation with statutory clarity. For the past decade, the SEC has regulated cryptocurrency through litigation rather than legislation, forcing companies and exchanges to operate in permanent legal uncertainty regarding whether their tokens constitute securities or commodities. The bill establishes clear legal definitions for blockchain, digital assets, and digital commodities while delineating regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). By classifying most blockchain-native tokens as digital commodities, the legislation significantly narrows SEC authority and provides institutional investors with predictable compliance frameworks—a prerequisite for large capital deployment into digital asset markets.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.) has identified three unresolved technical issues blocking full Senate passage: stablecoin yield language provisions, decentralized finance (DeFi) regulatory treatment, and ensuring comprehensive market coverage. These remaining disagreements indicate that while bipartisan support exists in principle, legislative drafting disputes have prevented the committee from advancing the bill to the full chamber for a floor vote.

The market implications are substantial. Industry observers have identified the CLARITY Act as one of three primary drivers of near-term Bitcoin performance, alongside U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy and geopolitical stability. Cryptocurrency advocates contend that passage would unlock institutional capital flows currently withheld due to regulatory ambiguity. Institutional investors—including major asset managers and family offices—have remained largely sidelined, awaiting clear statutory frameworks rather than operating under regulatory regimes subject to change through litigation. Passage would fundamentally alter the risk calculus for institutional participation in digital asset markets.

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Digitaltoday Three key factors set to determine bitcoin's fate: Fed rates, CLARITY Act, Strategy - 디지털투데이