Key Takeaways
- • Tiger Securities lowered its price target on Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) to $85 from $100, maintaining a Hold rating ahead of Q4 2025 earnings.
- • Circle's stock has declined nearly 65% over the past six months and currently trades at $73, with analyst price targets ranging from $65 to $280.
- • USDC stablecoin circulation averaged $76.3 billion in Q4 2025, up 12% quarter-over-quarter, but Circle's market share in the fiat-backed stablecoin market declined to 27.9% from 28.9% as competitor USDT gained ground.
- • Tiger Securities reduced its 2026 USDC circulation forecast by 8% due to expected near-term softness in crypto asset prices and cut its reserve income estimate by 10%.
- • Circle faces profitability headwinds with weak gross profit margins of 5.28% and projected full-year 2025 revenue of $98.6 million, with non-reserve revenue expected to decline 10% quarter-over-quarter.
Summary
Tiger Securities downgraded its outlook on Circle Internet Group by reducing its price target to $85 from $100 while maintaining a Hold rating, signaling caution ahead of the company's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report expected in approximately 36 days. The stock currently trades at $73, substantially below its analyst targets, which range from a bear case of $65 to a bull case of $280. The stock has experienced severe weakness, falling nearly 65% over the preceding six months, reflecting broader market concerns about both Circle's business fundamentals and crypto market conditions.
Circle's core USDC stablecoin business showed mixed performance in Q4 2025. Average circulation reached $76.3 billion, representing 12% quarter-over-quarter growth from $67.8 billion in Q3, though peak balances of $78.6 billion in December contracted to $75.4 billion by quarter-end. More concerning for Circle's competitive position, its share of the broader fiat-backed stablecoin market contracted to 27.9% from 28.9% in Q3, while rival USDT's market share expanded from 68.3% to 69.3%. The overall fiat-backed stablecoin market expanded 6% quarter-over-quarter to $269.9 billion, indicating Circle's loss of market share despite category growth.
Tiger Securities' reduced forecasts reflect structural headwinds. The firm cut its 2026 USDC circulation forecast by 8% due to anticipated near-term softness in crypto asset prices and lowered its year-end reserve return rate assumption by 7 basis points, resulting in a 10% reduction to reserve income estimates. For 2025, Tiger models reserve income at $744 million (up 5% quarter-over-quarter) but projects non-reserve revenue to decline 10% quarter-over-quarter, yielding full-year 2025 revenue of $98.6 million. Profitability remains a significant concern: Circle's gross profit margins stand at just 5.28%, and the company has not achieved profitability over the trailing twelve months. InvestingPro's assessment rates Circle's financial health as "Fair" and the stock as slightly overvalued at current levels, with four analysts having recently downgraded their earnings estimates for the upcoming period.
Circle's core USDC stablecoin business showed mixed performance in Q4 2025. Average circulation reached $76.3 billion, representing 12% quarter-over-quarter growth from $67.8 billion in Q3, though peak balances of $78.6 billion in December contracted to $75.4 billion by quarter-end. More concerning for Circle's competitive position, its share of the broader fiat-backed stablecoin market contracted to 27.9% from 28.9% in Q3, while rival USDT's market share expanded from 68.3% to 69.3%. The overall fiat-backed stablecoin market expanded 6% quarter-over-quarter to $269.9 billion, indicating Circle's loss of market share despite category growth.
Tiger Securities' reduced forecasts reflect structural headwinds. The firm cut its 2026 USDC circulation forecast by 8% due to anticipated near-term softness in crypto asset prices and lowered its year-end reserve return rate assumption by 7 basis points, resulting in a 10% reduction to reserve income estimates. For 2025, Tiger models reserve income at $744 million (up 5% quarter-over-quarter) but projects non-reserve revenue to decline 10% quarter-over-quarter, yielding full-year 2025 revenue of $98.6 million. Profitability remains a significant concern: Circle's gross profit margins stand at just 5.28%, and the company has not achieved profitability over the trailing twelve months. InvestingPro's assessment rates Circle's financial health as "Fair" and the stock as slightly overvalued at current levels, with four analysts having recently downgraded their earnings estimates for the upcoming period.
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