Key Takeaways
- • Moness Crespi Hardt forecasts 2027 nominal personal consumption expenditure growth of 4.5%, slightly below consensus of 4.6%, as the US savings rate falls to 4.1% from 5.2% a year earlier.
- • Adyen is the firm's top fintech pick, trading at roughly 16 times forward earnings, below the S&P 500 for the first time since its 2018 listing despite growth above 20%.
- • Global Payments trades at about 4.5 times forward P/E, a company record low; the firm recommends opportunistic accumulation with a stress-case target near $69, implying roughly 16% downside.
- • Remitly Global is named a second top pick among share gainers whose economics hold up in slower spending, while Square and Circle are rated as opportunistic buys.
- • The firm favors companies whose share gains and cash generation can sustain returns under slower spending and is cautious on names reliant on volume, pricing, or credit-cost tailwinds.
Summary
Moness Crespi Hardt has identified fintech and crypto stocks it expects to perform well as consumer spending growth slows, according to Investing.com. The firm argues that US consumers are outspending income growth by approximately 1.5 percentage points, funded by a savings rate of 4.1% compared with 5.2% a year ago. Its forecast of 4.5% nominal personal consumption expenditure growth for 2027 sits slightly below consensus expectations of 4.6%.
Adyen is the firm's leading fintech pick. The payment processor trades at approximately 16 times forward earnings, below the S&P 500 for the first time since its 2018 listing, despite delivering more than 20% growth. The firm views expectations rather than earnings as having reset, creating an attractive entry point. It argues Adyen benefits from an increasingly complex payments environment, including the effects of artificial intelligence on commerce, and that its orchestration capabilities could lift authorization rates, improve merchant retention, and deepen risk and identity capabilities.
Remitly Global is cited as the firm's second top pick among share gainers whose economics can withstand moderating consumer spending. Moness Crespi Hardt suggests adding to positions in Remitly alongside Adyen as core fintech holdings.
Global Payments trades at about 4.5 times forward price-to-earnings, a record low for the company, after earnings were already cut. The firm recommends adding the stock opportunistically, but cautions that reset earnings may not represent trough earnings. Its stress-case target of approximately $69 implies potential downside of 16% from current levels. Square is viewed as more catalyst-heavy in the near term; the firm says access to US banks remains a key checkpoint and recommends waiting for compelling entry points. For Circle, the firm recommends adding on weakness, particularly for investors with a multi-year horizon. It remains positive on this rate-sensitive name but is slightly more cautious than previously.
Across its picks, the firm favors companies whose share gains and cash generation can sustain returns under slower spending, while remaining cautious on names whose earnings depend on continued volume, pricing, or credit-cost tailwinds.
Adyen is the firm's leading fintech pick. The payment processor trades at approximately 16 times forward earnings, below the S&P 500 for the first time since its 2018 listing, despite delivering more than 20% growth. The firm views expectations rather than earnings as having reset, creating an attractive entry point. It argues Adyen benefits from an increasingly complex payments environment, including the effects of artificial intelligence on commerce, and that its orchestration capabilities could lift authorization rates, improve merchant retention, and deepen risk and identity capabilities.
Remitly Global is cited as the firm's second top pick among share gainers whose economics can withstand moderating consumer spending. Moness Crespi Hardt suggests adding to positions in Remitly alongside Adyen as core fintech holdings.
Global Payments trades at about 4.5 times forward price-to-earnings, a record low for the company, after earnings were already cut. The firm recommends adding the stock opportunistically, but cautions that reset earnings may not represent trough earnings. Its stress-case target of approximately $69 implies potential downside of 16% from current levels. Square is viewed as more catalyst-heavy in the near term; the firm says access to US banks remains a key checkpoint and recommends waiting for compelling entry points. For Circle, the firm recommends adding on weakness, particularly for investors with a multi-year horizon. It remains positive on this rate-sensitive name but is slightly more cautious than previously.
Across its picks, the firm favors companies whose share gains and cash generation can sustain returns under slower spending, while remaining cautious on names whose earnings depend on continued volume, pricing, or credit-cost tailwinds.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.