Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin recovered 11.8% month-over-month to ~$78,272 in May 2026, with spot price closing at $81,394 on May 14, driven entirely by spot demand rather than leveraged positions as perpetual futures basis collapsed to historically low levels.
- • Put option premiums declined 51% month-over-month as hedging demand unwound, signaling reduced downside protection interest despite price recovery and indicating a shift from defensive positioning.
- • Bitcoin hashrate declined 13.2% from its November 11, 2025 peak to 964 EH/s—the longest and deepest sustained drawdown in the asset's industrial mining era across 187 days—as US public miners shed approximately 7 EH/s in Q1 2026.
- • The 11 largest US public bitcoin miners are exiting mining operations as power capacity shifts to AI hyperscaler leases (10-to-15-year terms), with government-owned stranded hydro and gas infrastructure emerging as the natural successor for mining operations.
- • Perpetual futures annualized basis slipped to -0.45% on a 30-day moving average, down from 1.27% one month prior and well below the 3.16% reading from May 2025, indicating outright cautious sentiment despite price stabilization.
Summary
Bitcoin price action stabilized in mid-May 2026 following a steep prior-month decline, with the 30-day moving average price recovering to approximately $78,272, representing an 11.8% monthly gain, and spot price closing at $81,394 on May 14. However, the recovery exhibits a critical structural characteristic: the rally is driven entirely by spot demand with minimal leverage participation. Perpetual futures sentiment remained outright cautious, as evidenced by the 30-day moving average annualized basis declining to -0.45%, down sharply from 1.27% the previous month and substantially below the 3.16% level recorded one year prior. The current basis reading sits in the 15th percentile of all observations since November 2020, indicating historically weak bullish positioning in derivatives markets.
The options complex underwent significant rotation as hedging demand collapsed amid the price recovery. Bitcoin put option premiums declined 51% month-over-month as investors unwound downside protection positions. The 7-day moving average basis, while rebounding to 3.13% from negative territory in April, remains well below levels typically associated with bullish sentiment, reinforcing the cautious positioning evident across leveraged markets.
On the mining front, Bitcoin's hashrate experienced a historic drawdown. The 30-day moving average hashrate sits 13.2% below its November 11, 2025 peak at 964 EH/s, marking the longest and deepest sustained decline in bitcoin's industrial mining era with 187 days elapsed. This structural shift reflects a fundamental reshuffling of mining operations in the United States. The 11 largest US public bitcoin miners shed approximately 7 EH/s of capacity during Q1 2026 as power availability shifted toward AI hyperscaler operations, which have secured 10-to-15-year lease agreements. This transition is creating a natural succession of mining activity toward government-owned stranded hydroelectric and natural gas infrastructure assets, representing a secular shift in the geographic and ownership composition of the bitcoin mining network.
The options complex underwent significant rotation as hedging demand collapsed amid the price recovery. Bitcoin put option premiums declined 51% month-over-month as investors unwound downside protection positions. The 7-day moving average basis, while rebounding to 3.13% from negative territory in April, remains well below levels typically associated with bullish sentiment, reinforcing the cautious positioning evident across leveraged markets.
On the mining front, Bitcoin's hashrate experienced a historic drawdown. The 30-day moving average hashrate sits 13.2% below its November 11, 2025 peak at 964 EH/s, marking the longest and deepest sustained decline in bitcoin's industrial mining era with 187 days elapsed. This structural shift reflects a fundamental reshuffling of mining operations in the United States. The 11 largest US public bitcoin miners shed approximately 7 EH/s of capacity during Q1 2026 as power availability shifted toward AI hyperscaler operations, which have secured 10-to-15-year lease agreements. This transition is creating a natural succession of mining activity toward government-owned stranded hydroelectric and natural gas infrastructure assets, representing a secular shift in the geographic and ownership composition of the bitcoin mining network.
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