Key Takeaways
- • Of the top 100 altcoins by market capitalization on November 10, 2021, 81 had fallen at least 70% by October 2026, and 64 were down at least 90%, with a median decline of 94.5%, according to CoinMarketCap research prepared for Forbes.
- • Only seven of the tracked altcoins were worth more than their starting value nearly five years later, challenging the conventional advice to research fundamentals and hold through downturns.
- • Tokenomics, including token issuance, vesting and unlock schedules, and whether network activity translates into token demand, is a key factor in valuation, with Filecoin's circulating supply rising 585% while FIL fell 98.3%.
- • Holding supply constant at 2021 levels, researchers estimated that 77 of the 81 tokens that lost at least 70% would still have lost that much, indicating declining market valuations drove most of the collapse.
- • Buybacks and revenue-sharing programs, which 28 major projects used to spend over $1.4 billion in 2025 according to CoinGecko, have produced mixed results for token prices.
Summary
Some of the most promising cryptocurrencies of 2021, backed by established teams and sophisticated technology, have lost nearly all their value. According to CoinMarketCap research prepared for Forbes, of the top 100 altcoins in November 2021, 81 had fallen at least 70% from their November 2021 levels, while 64 were down at least 90%. The median decline was 94.5%. The study tracked the largest altcoins by market capitalization on November 10, 2021, near the peak of the crypto market, excluding Bitcoin, stablecoins and wrapped tokens. Nearly five years later, only seven were worth more than they had been at the start of the period.
The article argues that technological merit does not reliably translate into investment returns, drawing a parallel to the dot-com era, when investors funded fiber-optic telecommunications builders, some of which later went bankrupt. Unlike equity holders, owners of most tokens hold no legal claim on a company's profits. Tokens may provide governance rights or enable transactions without entitling holders to a share of revenue. A blockchain can attract users and generate fees without creating matching demand for its token, which is why investors need to examine tokenomics, including why users need the token, what rights holders receive and how network activity could support market value.
Supply dynamics also contributed to losses. Among the 81 altcoins that lost at least 70%, median circulating supply rose 49% over nearly five years while median market capitalization declined 94.6%. Filecoin's circulating supply increased 585% between November 2021 and October 2026, while FIL fell 98.3%. Polkadot's supply rose 73% as DOT fell 97.5%. CoinMarketCap head of research Alice Liu said, "Dilution contributed, but it does not fully explain the losses." Researchers estimated that 77 of the 81 tokens would still have lost at least 70% even with supply held at 2021 levels, suggesting that declining valuations accounted for most of the decline.
The article notes that projects are increasingly experimenting with mechanisms to link token value to network economics. On Arbitrum, users pay fees in ETH rather than the $ARB token, which provides governance rights without automatically entitling holders to network income. According to CoinGecko, 28 major projects spent more than $1.4 billion buying back tokens in 2025, with ten accounting for 92% of that total. OKB surged 170% in August 2025 after an announcement that its supply would be sharply reduced, and Hyperliquid directs most of its trading-fee revenue toward HYPE buybacks, outperforming the broader market this year. Other projects with similar programs have continued to lose value, so the effect of these measures on long-term returns remains unclear.
Market attention rotation is cited as another factor. Matt Cepulis, founder and CEO of 3betmedia, said retail liquidity moves from narrative to narrative, including memecoins, AI agents and prediction markets, and that established infrastructure tokens "lose their narrative premium and nothing replaces it." Andreas Brekken, founder of SideShift.ai, said a new chain is "essentially a startup" and that most will fail to achieve product-market fit. The article concludes that investors who identified promising technology still needed to choose the right token and pay a reasonable price.
The article argues that technological merit does not reliably translate into investment returns, drawing a parallel to the dot-com era, when investors funded fiber-optic telecommunications builders, some of which later went bankrupt. Unlike equity holders, owners of most tokens hold no legal claim on a company's profits. Tokens may provide governance rights or enable transactions without entitling holders to a share of revenue. A blockchain can attract users and generate fees without creating matching demand for its token, which is why investors need to examine tokenomics, including why users need the token, what rights holders receive and how network activity could support market value.
Supply dynamics also contributed to losses. Among the 81 altcoins that lost at least 70%, median circulating supply rose 49% over nearly five years while median market capitalization declined 94.6%. Filecoin's circulating supply increased 585% between November 2021 and October 2026, while FIL fell 98.3%. Polkadot's supply rose 73% as DOT fell 97.5%. CoinMarketCap head of research Alice Liu said, "Dilution contributed, but it does not fully explain the losses." Researchers estimated that 77 of the 81 tokens would still have lost at least 70% even with supply held at 2021 levels, suggesting that declining valuations accounted for most of the decline.
The article notes that projects are increasingly experimenting with mechanisms to link token value to network economics. On Arbitrum, users pay fees in ETH rather than the $ARB token, which provides governance rights without automatically entitling holders to network income. According to CoinGecko, 28 major projects spent more than $1.4 billion buying back tokens in 2025, with ten accounting for 92% of that total. OKB surged 170% in August 2025 after an announcement that its supply would be sharply reduced, and Hyperliquid directs most of its trading-fee revenue toward HYPE buybacks, outperforming the broader market this year. Other projects with similar programs have continued to lose value, so the effect of these measures on long-term returns remains unclear.
Market attention rotation is cited as another factor. Matt Cepulis, founder and CEO of 3betmedia, said retail liquidity moves from narrative to narrative, including memecoins, AI agents and prediction markets, and that established infrastructure tokens "lose their narrative premium and nothing replaces it." Andreas Brekken, founder of SideShift.ai, said a new chain is "essentially a startup" and that most will fail to achieve product-market fit. The article concludes that investors who identified promising technology still needed to choose the right token and pay a reasonable price.
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