Key Takeaways
- • XRP has retreated toward $1, marking the fastest capitulation phase for investors since the 2022 crypto crash, with the token reaching 19-month lows and testing critical support levels established over recent months.
- • Glassnode data indicates XRP's 90-day moving average profit-to-loss ratio has collapsed to 0.33–0.38, the weakest reading since August 2022, signifying that for every $1 of realized losses, investors are recording minimal profits, triggering panic selling behavior.
- • XRP has erased months of accumulated gains during a prolonged decline, with the asset breaking through multiple key support zones after trading at $3.65 in the prior year, representing a significant departure from its recent bull-market performance.
- • The $1 price level has become increasingly important as a psychological and technical barrier; XRP last traded at comparable lows in November 2024 ($1.08) and faces elevated options expiry pressure, with $10.8 billion in options contracts approaching settlement.
- • The capitulation pattern mirrors conditions last observed in mid-2022, when XRP had declined 85% from cycle peaks over a 14-month period, raising questions about whether current support levels will hold or whether further downside is likely.
Summary
XRP investors are capitulating at the fastest pace since the 2022 cryptocurrency crash, as the digital asset slides toward the psychologically critical $1 support level. Data from on-chain analytics provider Glassnode reveals that XRP's 90-day moving average profit-to-loss ratio has fallen to 0.33–0.38, representing the weakest reading since August 2022. This metric indicates severe capitulation: for every dollar of realized losses investors are accepting, they are recording only $0.33 to $0.38 in realized profits. This asymmetry has triggered panic selling as underwater positions force liquidations.
XRP has reached 19-month lows, with the token last trading at comparable levels in November 2024 when it dipped to $1.08. The current retreat erases months of accumulated gains and represents a sharp reversal from the asset's $3.65 peak achieved in the prior year. The token has broken through multiple key technical support zones during its prolonged decline, creating cascading selling pressure as algorithmic traders and stop-loss orders activate. The $1 level carries both psychological significance and technical weight after functioning as a price floor during recent months of consolidation.
The capitulation pattern mirrors conditions observed in mid-2022, when XRP fell 85% from cycle peaks over approximately 14 months, eventually reaching $0.29 by June 2022. Historically, XRP has struggled to sustain levels above $1 outside of bull-market conditions; the asset spent extended periods below $1 from 2013–2018 and had limited upside breaks from 2018–2024 prior to recent volatility. Current selling pressure is amplified by $10.8 billion in options expiry, which has concentrated selling flows and tested whether spot-market support can withstand the outflow.
On-chain data demonstrates that aggregate holder cost basis has been breached, triggering systematic loss realization across the investor base. The capitulation reading of 0.33–0.38 on the profit-to-loss ratio indicates that major holders are accepting losses rather than waiting for recovery, a behavioral marker typically associated with capitulation phases that often precede bottoms but can also signal further downside if support fails. Whether XRP can hold the $1 level remains uncertain; a break below would expose the asset to the lower support zones established during the 2022 bear market.
XRP has reached 19-month lows, with the token last trading at comparable levels in November 2024 when it dipped to $1.08. The current retreat erases months of accumulated gains and represents a sharp reversal from the asset's $3.65 peak achieved in the prior year. The token has broken through multiple key technical support zones during its prolonged decline, creating cascading selling pressure as algorithmic traders and stop-loss orders activate. The $1 level carries both psychological significance and technical weight after functioning as a price floor during recent months of consolidation.
The capitulation pattern mirrors conditions observed in mid-2022, when XRP fell 85% from cycle peaks over approximately 14 months, eventually reaching $0.29 by June 2022. Historically, XRP has struggled to sustain levels above $1 outside of bull-market conditions; the asset spent extended periods below $1 from 2013–2018 and had limited upside breaks from 2018–2024 prior to recent volatility. Current selling pressure is amplified by $10.8 billion in options expiry, which has concentrated selling flows and tested whether spot-market support can withstand the outflow.
On-chain data demonstrates that aggregate holder cost basis has been breached, triggering systematic loss realization across the investor base. The capitulation reading of 0.33–0.38 on the profit-to-loss ratio indicates that major holders are accepting losses rather than waiting for recovery, a behavioral marker typically associated with capitulation phases that often precede bottoms but can also signal further downside if support fails. Whether XRP can hold the $1 level remains uncertain; a break below would expose the asset to the lower support zones established during the 2022 bear market.
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