Key Takeaways
- • Four of the five stocks Bill Ackman's Pershing Square bought or added to in Q2 2026 are up since June 30, led by Mastercard at +27%, Visa at +23%, S&P Global at +15% and Meta Platforms at +8%; Netflix is down 11%.
- • Mastercard's gain was driven largely by multiple expansion: its forward P/E rose from 25x at end-June to 29x, versus a five-year average of 31x, which the article says explains much of the stock's move.
- • Analysts expect Mastercard EPS to grow about 16% annually from $17.01 in 2025 to $26.90 in 2028, with a consensus price target of $716, about 10% above the last close.
- • TIKR's analysis concludes Mastercard is fairly priced for its growth, so it is not too late to follow Ackman, though returns will likely track earnings from here; client incentives pose the main risk.
Summary
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square must file its next 13F by Nov. 16, and most stocks in its last filing have risen since the quarter ended. The Q2 13F, filed Aug. 14, showed four new positions and one addition: Mastercard (2.12 million shares, $1.09 billion, 5.6% of 13F stocks, up 27%), Visa (3.27 million shares, $1.12 billion, 5.8%, up 23%), S&P Global (2.59 million shares, $1.06 billion, 5.4%, up 15%), Meta Platforms (3.20 million shares, $1.80 billion, 9.2%, up 8%) and Netflix (13.08 million shares, $934 million, 4.8%, down 11%). Together the five made up about 31% of the $19.47 billion in US stocks in the filing. According to the article, a 13F does not show what Pershing paid or whether it still holds every share.
Ackman said on CNBC's Squawk Pod that he bought Visa and Mastercard this year after years of finding them too expensive, calling Visa "a royalty on people spending money." Mastercard's third-quarter results supported that view: revenue rose 14% to $9.81 billion, services grew 19% on a currency-neutral basis, and adjusted EPS rose 21% to $5.31, ahead of the $5.17 consensus. CFO Ling Hai warned, however, that part of the beat came from services projects and network deals pulled forward from the fourth quarter, and that "you will see a similar offset in Q4." Analysts moved estimates by less than 0.5% after the report.
The article attributes much of Mastercard's gain to valuation rather than earnings alone. Its forward P/E was 25x at end-June, near the bottom of its five-year range, and has since climbed to 29x, just under its five-year average of 31x, meaning investors are paying about 16% more per dollar of expected earnings. More than a dozen firms raised targets after the third quarter, with the consensus reaching $716 this month, up from $657 a year ago; individual targets range from $550 to $800.
TIKR's view is that at the current multiple Mastercard is fairly priced for mid-teens earnings growth, so it is not too late to follow Ackman, but the stock is likely to rise roughly in line with earnings from here. The main risk cited is the incentives Mastercard pays banks, which rose 18% in the third quarter and will take a larger share of fees in the fourth. Visa faces a similar issue, with client incentives up 21% in its fiscal fourth quarter and guidance for only low-double-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2027. Analysts' average targets imply 39% upside for Meta and 34% for Netflix, though the article notes concerns: Meta's third-quarter capex of $34.9 billion exceeded its $32.8 billion of operating cash flow, and Netflix's view hours grew just 2% in the first half of 2026. Mastercard presents at Citi's fintech conference on Nov. 9 and KBW's on Nov. 10.
Ackman said on CNBC's Squawk Pod that he bought Visa and Mastercard this year after years of finding them too expensive, calling Visa "a royalty on people spending money." Mastercard's third-quarter results supported that view: revenue rose 14% to $9.81 billion, services grew 19% on a currency-neutral basis, and adjusted EPS rose 21% to $5.31, ahead of the $5.17 consensus. CFO Ling Hai warned, however, that part of the beat came from services projects and network deals pulled forward from the fourth quarter, and that "you will see a similar offset in Q4." Analysts moved estimates by less than 0.5% after the report.
The article attributes much of Mastercard's gain to valuation rather than earnings alone. Its forward P/E was 25x at end-June, near the bottom of its five-year range, and has since climbed to 29x, just under its five-year average of 31x, meaning investors are paying about 16% more per dollar of expected earnings. More than a dozen firms raised targets after the third quarter, with the consensus reaching $716 this month, up from $657 a year ago; individual targets range from $550 to $800.
TIKR's view is that at the current multiple Mastercard is fairly priced for mid-teens earnings growth, so it is not too late to follow Ackman, but the stock is likely to rise roughly in line with earnings from here. The main risk cited is the incentives Mastercard pays banks, which rose 18% in the third quarter and will take a larger share of fees in the fourth. Visa faces a similar issue, with client incentives up 21% in its fiscal fourth quarter and guidance for only low-double-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2027. Analysts' average targets imply 39% upside for Meta and 34% for Netflix, though the article notes concerns: Meta's third-quarter capex of $34.9 billion exceeded its $32.8 billion of operating cash flow, and Netflix's view hours grew just 2% in the first half of 2026. Mastercard presents at Citi's fintech conference on Nov. 9 and KBW's on Nov. 10.
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