Key Takeaways
- • Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, publicly urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to exclude National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from the next Israeli government, ahead of the Tuesday vote, according to his post on X.
- • Ackman framed the argument in reputational terms, saying the two ministers have caused Israel "enormous reputational damage" and that excluding them would signal Israel is "turning a new page" and help expand the Abraham Accords.
- • Ackman and his wife, Neri Oxman, bought a stake of about 4.9% in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange in January 2024, giving him a direct financial interest in Israel's international standing.
- • Final polls show neither Netanyahu's bloc (about 50 to 51 seats) nor the opposition (51 to 56 seats) reaching the 61-seat Knesset majority, leaving the far-right parties as pivotal to coalition arithmetic.
- • Investors in Israeli equities, debt and technology should expect coalition composition to influence sovereign credit outlooks, foreign investment and normalization prospects; a deadlock could extend uncertainty into 2027.
Summary
Bill Ackman has entered Israel's election debate on the eve of the vote, saying on Sunday that Ben Gvir and Smotrich should not serve in the next government. Writing on X, Ackman said: "I said I wasn't going to weigh in on who should be prime minister of Israel as that is a decision for Israeli citizens," before arguing that the two ministers have caused Israel enormous reputational damage. He said their exclusion would help restore lost credibility, open the way to expanding the Abraham Accords and improve Israel's standing with both major U.S. political parties. Ackman did not withdraw his support for Netanyahu, whom he praised at a Tel Aviv conference last week for protecting Israel since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Representatives of Ben Gvir and Smotrich did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Ackman's position is unusual for an outside commentator. A prominent supporter of Trump's 2024 campaign, he holds a direct financial stake in Israel through the roughly 4.9% Tel Aviv Stock Exchange position he and Neri Oxman acquired in January 2024. The statement came a week after Trump publicly endorsed Netanyahu. Some Israeli analysts read it as a sign of thinking within Trump's wider circle that a Netanyahu-led government without its far-right partners could be more acceptable abroad. Ackman has said he speaks only for himself. Critics regard a foreign billionaire advising Israeli voters as problematic, while others see a legitimate stake in Israel's international standing.
The ministers are central to the debate. Ben Gvir leads Otzma Yehudit and Smotrich leads Religious Zionism, and both have been part of Netanyahu's coalition since late 2022. Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Norway sanctioned both men in 2025 over alleged incitement to violence against Palestinians, while the European Union has discussed similar measures without agreement. Final polls project Otzma Yehudit at about eight seats, up from six, and Religious Zionism at six to eight.
The electoral arithmetic gives the far right leverage. Eisenkot's Yashar party leads with about 22 to 23 seats, ahead of Likud on 19 to 21, and Bennett's party is projected at 14 to 15. Arab parties are expected to win roughly 14 to 16 seats. Key opposition leaders have said they will not serve under Netanyahu, so his path to the 61-seat majority runs largely through current partners, which is why Ackman's appeal targets coalition composition rather than leadership. If no government forms, Israel could face another election in early 2027.
For investors, the reputational argument reflects how many international holders view Israel's politics. Sovereign ratings were downgraded during the war, the technology sector relies heavily on foreign capital, and sanctions on serving ministers represent an unusual diplomatic cost for a close Western partner. Expansion of the Abraham Accords, particularly to Saudi Arabia, is seen as a major economic opportunity, though Gulf governments have tied normalization to Israeli policy toward Palestinians.
Ackman's position is unusual for an outside commentator. A prominent supporter of Trump's 2024 campaign, he holds a direct financial stake in Israel through the roughly 4.9% Tel Aviv Stock Exchange position he and Neri Oxman acquired in January 2024. The statement came a week after Trump publicly endorsed Netanyahu. Some Israeli analysts read it as a sign of thinking within Trump's wider circle that a Netanyahu-led government without its far-right partners could be more acceptable abroad. Ackman has said he speaks only for himself. Critics regard a foreign billionaire advising Israeli voters as problematic, while others see a legitimate stake in Israel's international standing.
The ministers are central to the debate. Ben Gvir leads Otzma Yehudit and Smotrich leads Religious Zionism, and both have been part of Netanyahu's coalition since late 2022. Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Norway sanctioned both men in 2025 over alleged incitement to violence against Palestinians, while the European Union has discussed similar measures without agreement. Final polls project Otzma Yehudit at about eight seats, up from six, and Religious Zionism at six to eight.
The electoral arithmetic gives the far right leverage. Eisenkot's Yashar party leads with about 22 to 23 seats, ahead of Likud on 19 to 21, and Bennett's party is projected at 14 to 15. Arab parties are expected to win roughly 14 to 16 seats. Key opposition leaders have said they will not serve under Netanyahu, so his path to the 61-seat majority runs largely through current partners, which is why Ackman's appeal targets coalition composition rather than leadership. If no government forms, Israel could face another election in early 2027.
For investors, the reputational argument reflects how many international holders view Israel's politics. Sovereign ratings were downgraded during the war, the technology sector relies heavily on foreign capital, and sanctions on serving ministers represent an unusual diplomatic cost for a close Western partner. Expansion of the Abraham Accords, particularly to Saudi Arabia, is seen as a major economic opportunity, though Gulf governments have tied normalization to Israeli policy toward Palestinians.
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