Key Takeaways
- • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3 million on October 30, the largest single-day outflow since June 25, according to the primary source's ETF flow data.
- • October closed with a $515 million net outflow, the category's first negative month after $3.5 billion in August and $2.6 billion in September inflows.
- • BlackRock's IBIT took in $177 million for the week of October 26 to 30, the most of any fund, while Fidelity's FBTC lost $166 million and ARKB lost $130 million.
- • Analysts characterized Friday's exit as a sentiment shock tied to the $6.36 billion Binance hack, equal to about 0.66% of the category's $98.14 billion in net assets.
- • IBIT, trading near $44.00 on November 2, holds about 63% of category assets ($62.30 billion); the stated trading range is $43.10 to $45.79, with a close below $43.10 flagged as a risk to Bitcoin's October low.
Summary
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.3 million in net outflows on October 30, their largest daily exit since June 25 and the worst flow session in four months. Five of 12 funds posted outflows: IBIT at $233.7 million, Fidelity's FBTC at $201.0 million, ARK and 21Shares' ARKB at $129.6 million, Grayscale's GBTC at $53.3 million and Bitwise's BITB at $25.7 million. The selling followed the Binance hack, which began at 20:05 UTC on October 29 and was described as the largest crypto theft on record at $6.36 billion. Bitcoin fell about 5% on the news and touched $76,141, while the Nasdaq fell 2.86% amid a broader technology selloff.
The outflow ended a four-session inflow streak that had added roughly $440 million, leaving the week of October 26 to 30 at a net outflow of $202.6 million. Analysts quoted in the source characterized the move as de-risking rather than capitulation. One chief analyst called it a sentiment shock, noting spot ETF holders have no direct Binance exposure because their Bitcoin sits with regulated custodians. A head of markets at a derivatives analytics firm said the outflow was under 1% of spot ETF assets, which the source puts at 0.66% of the category's $98.14 billion total.
For October as a whole, the category recorded $515 million in net outflows, its first negative month of 2026 after $3.5 billion in August and $2.6 billion in September inflows. Bitcoin fell 7.3% during the month, from near $84,000 to near $77,750. The October 22 outflow of $635.5 million and the October 30 outflow of $643.3 million together accounted for $1.28 billion of the month's weakness. Cumulative net inflows since the January 2024 launch stand at $56.98 billion, including $28.05 billion in GBTC outflows.
IBIT held up better than the category. The fund took in $177 million for the week and posted roughly $932 million in net inflows for October, while the rest of the category lost roughly $1.45 billion. IBIT held about 811,115 Bitcoin as of October 21, worth $67.7 billion at that time, and had 1,439,480,000 shares outstanding as of October 30. Its net assets were $62.30 billion as of October 30, and the shares traded at about $44.00 on November 2, up 1.5% from Friday's close of $43.36. Its cumulative net inflows total $66.31 billion. The source notes that IBIT's cost basis remains above its fair value, leaving holders underwater in aggregate after Bitcoin's first-half decline.
The source's base case is mixed flows through Friday's U.S. jobs report, with IBIT trading between $43.10 and $45.79. A daily close above $45.79 would bring IBIT back toward holders' cost basis and toward a $47.95 target, while a close below $43.10 would signal Bitcoin had broken its October low and open a path to $41.35. Flow data for Monday, November 2 will not post until after the U.S. close.
The outflow ended a four-session inflow streak that had added roughly $440 million, leaving the week of October 26 to 30 at a net outflow of $202.6 million. Analysts quoted in the source characterized the move as de-risking rather than capitulation. One chief analyst called it a sentiment shock, noting spot ETF holders have no direct Binance exposure because their Bitcoin sits with regulated custodians. A head of markets at a derivatives analytics firm said the outflow was under 1% of spot ETF assets, which the source puts at 0.66% of the category's $98.14 billion total.
For October as a whole, the category recorded $515 million in net outflows, its first negative month of 2026 after $3.5 billion in August and $2.6 billion in September inflows. Bitcoin fell 7.3% during the month, from near $84,000 to near $77,750. The October 22 outflow of $635.5 million and the October 30 outflow of $643.3 million together accounted for $1.28 billion of the month's weakness. Cumulative net inflows since the January 2024 launch stand at $56.98 billion, including $28.05 billion in GBTC outflows.
IBIT held up better than the category. The fund took in $177 million for the week and posted roughly $932 million in net inflows for October, while the rest of the category lost roughly $1.45 billion. IBIT held about 811,115 Bitcoin as of October 21, worth $67.7 billion at that time, and had 1,439,480,000 shares outstanding as of October 30. Its net assets were $62.30 billion as of October 30, and the shares traded at about $44.00 on November 2, up 1.5% from Friday's close of $43.36. Its cumulative net inflows total $66.31 billion. The source notes that IBIT's cost basis remains above its fair value, leaving holders underwater in aggregate after Bitcoin's first-half decline.
The source's base case is mixed flows through Friday's U.S. jobs report, with IBIT trading between $43.10 and $45.79. A daily close above $45.79 would bring IBIT back toward holders' cost basis and toward a $47.95 target, while a close below $43.10 would signal Bitcoin had broken its October low and open a path to $41.35. Flow data for Monday, November 2 will not post until after the U.S. close.
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