Key Takeaways
- • Third Point, the $28.73 billion fund run by Dan Loeb, opened a new 675,000-share stake in Performance Food Group (PFGC) worth $75 million in the quarter ended June 30, making it the fund's 22nd-largest position at 1.6% of its 13F holdings.
- • Steadfast Capital Management, which manages $10.36 billion, cut its Performance Food shares by 96% in the same quarter, leaving 131,200 shares worth $15 million; the stake had been 11% of the fund a quarter earlier.
- • Performance Food shares have fallen 10% since June 30, so the sale has so far been the better outcome on price alone, though neither 13F discloses purchase prices.
- • Consensus normalized EPS is expected to rise from $4.55 in fiscal 2026 to $5.63 in fiscal 2027, about 24% growth, while the stock trades at 18x forward earnings versus a five-year average of 16x.
- • The early-November fiscal Q1 2027 report is the first test of the expected earnings jump, with the next 13F filings due by Nov. 16.
Summary
Third Point bought Performance Food Group in the three months to June 30, according to the fund's 13F filing, which was filed Aug. 14 and remains the latest disclosure. The position of 675,000 shares was valued at $75 million. Over the same period, Steadfast Capital Management, which manages $10.36 billion, reduced its holding by 96%, retaining 131,200 shares worth $15 million. Neither filing discloses what the funds paid or whether they still hold the shares.
Performance Food's fiscal 2026 results, released Aug. 12, showed total case volume up 3.5% in the fourth quarter and cases sold to independent customers up 8.0%. Full-year adjusted EBITDA rose 9.2% to $1.9 billion, but adjusted EPS grew just 2.6% in Q4 to $1.59. Consensus expects normalized EPS to climb to $5.63 in fiscal 2027 and $6.69 in fiscal 2028, according to TIKR, which tracks 13 analysts on the stock.
Valuation is a central question. Performance Food trades at 18x forward earnings, above its five-year average of 16x but below the 22x it reached on July 29. The consensus price target rose from $121 a year ago to $124, about 23% above Monday's close, though the range has widened, with the high at $136 and the low falling from $114 to $79.
The source article concludes that Steadfast holds the stronger case on current numbers, arguing that investors should wait for evidence of the fiscal 2027 earnings acceleration before paying above the stock's typical multiple. Loeb's position is supported by the company's continued case growth and the gradual rise in consensus targets. The early-November report covering the three months to September will provide the first indication of whether the expected earnings jump is materializing, and 13F filings for that quarter, due by Nov. 16, will show whether Third Point held its stake and whether Steadfast exited completely.
Performance Food's fiscal 2026 results, released Aug. 12, showed total case volume up 3.5% in the fourth quarter and cases sold to independent customers up 8.0%. Full-year adjusted EBITDA rose 9.2% to $1.9 billion, but adjusted EPS grew just 2.6% in Q4 to $1.59. Consensus expects normalized EPS to climb to $5.63 in fiscal 2027 and $6.69 in fiscal 2028, according to TIKR, which tracks 13 analysts on the stock.
Valuation is a central question. Performance Food trades at 18x forward earnings, above its five-year average of 16x but below the 22x it reached on July 29. The consensus price target rose from $121 a year ago to $124, about 23% above Monday's close, though the range has widened, with the high at $136 and the low falling from $114 to $79.
The source article concludes that Steadfast holds the stronger case on current numbers, arguing that investors should wait for evidence of the fiscal 2027 earnings acceleration before paying above the stock's typical multiple. Loeb's position is supported by the company's continued case growth and the gradual rise in consensus targets. The early-November report covering the three months to September will provide the first indication of whether the expected earnings jump is materializing, and 13F filings for that quarter, due by Nov. 16, will show whether Third Point held its stake and whether Steadfast exited completely.
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