Key Takeaways
- • Galaxy Digital head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said on Unchained that bitcoin has held near $80,000 because the investors most exposed to AI-related selling had already exited their spot bitcoin ETF positions.
- • Galaxy's Oct. 26 research essay, based on 13F filings, identified nine filers that cut spot bitcoin ETF holdings by 29% to 100% and together shed about 68,000 BTC, including Goldman Sachs Group, Millennium Management and Capula Management.
- • Across all 2,200 13F filers, combined spot bitcoin ETF holdings fell 14%, from the equivalent of 355,000 BTC as of Sept. 30, 2025 to 307,000 BTC by June 2026, a net decline of 48,000 BTC.
- • Bitcoin's lowest daily close over the past month was $80,009 on Oct. 26, and it traded at $80,457 on Thursday, according to Coinbase data.
- • Filings for the quarter ended Sept. 30 are due Monday, Nov. 16, and will reveal holdings as of that later period.
Summary
Bitcoin has remained close to $80,000 through a month of investor concern over the AI trade, and Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn attributes that resilience to positioning. Speaking on the Unchained podcast in a live episode recorded Thursday, Thorn said the investors most likely to sell on AI-related worries do not own bitcoin. He said bitcoin is "not in their inventory to sell" because they have "already gotten out of the trade."
Thorn's argument rests on quarterly 13F filings, which disclose large managers' spot bitcoin ETF positions. In a Galaxy Research essay published Oct. 26 and sent to clients Oct. 22, Galaxy named nine filers that reduced holdings by 29% to 100% and together gave up roughly 68,000 BTC. The filers included Goldman Sachs Group, Millennium Management, Capula Management and six others. Galaxy characterized these sellers as trading-driven capital, including macro and multistrategy hedge funds, firms running ETF-futures basis trades, and bank trading desks. Thorn described the selling as coming from "macro and multi-strat fast money hedge funds."
On the buy side, Galaxy pointed to Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council, and Morgan Stanley's wealth-management unit. Thorn said wealth managers may "rebalance on a quarterly basis" and described them as "much longer term capital." Across all 2,200 filers, combined ETF holdings fell 14%, from the equivalent of 355,000 BTC as of Sept. 30, 2025 to 307,000 BTC by June 2026. That net drop of 48,000 BTC is smaller than the 68,000 BTC given up by the nine sellers alone, indicating offsetting buying elsewhere.
Thorn said some recent AI anxiety has eased, citing strong SK hynix earnings, a Kospi rebound, Oracle's investor day, and the Federal Reserve's Wednesday meeting, at which rates were held. Bitcoin's lowest daily close over the past month was $80,009 on Oct. 26, with an intraday low of $79,107 on Oct. 24, according to Coinbase data. It traded at $80,457 at 4:06 p.m. ET Thursday. Thorn said, "We're long-term bullish on Bitcoin."
Filings for the quarter ended Sept. 30 are due Monday, Nov. 16. Thorn noted that "the biggest filers all wait till the very last day," and those filings will show spot bitcoin ETF holdings three months later than the data in Galaxy's essay.
Thorn's argument rests on quarterly 13F filings, which disclose large managers' spot bitcoin ETF positions. In a Galaxy Research essay published Oct. 26 and sent to clients Oct. 22, Galaxy named nine filers that reduced holdings by 29% to 100% and together gave up roughly 68,000 BTC. The filers included Goldman Sachs Group, Millennium Management, Capula Management and six others. Galaxy characterized these sellers as trading-driven capital, including macro and multistrategy hedge funds, firms running ETF-futures basis trades, and bank trading desks. Thorn described the selling as coming from "macro and multi-strat fast money hedge funds."
On the buy side, Galaxy pointed to Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council, and Morgan Stanley's wealth-management unit. Thorn said wealth managers may "rebalance on a quarterly basis" and described them as "much longer term capital." Across all 2,200 filers, combined ETF holdings fell 14%, from the equivalent of 355,000 BTC as of Sept. 30, 2025 to 307,000 BTC by June 2026. That net drop of 48,000 BTC is smaller than the 68,000 BTC given up by the nine sellers alone, indicating offsetting buying elsewhere.
Thorn said some recent AI anxiety has eased, citing strong SK hynix earnings, a Kospi rebound, Oracle's investor day, and the Federal Reserve's Wednesday meeting, at which rates were held. Bitcoin's lowest daily close over the past month was $80,009 on Oct. 26, with an intraday low of $79,107 on Oct. 24, according to Coinbase data. It traded at $80,457 at 4:06 p.m. ET Thursday. Thorn said, "We're long-term bullish on Bitcoin."
Filings for the quarter ended Sept. 30 are due Monday, Nov. 16. Thorn noted that "the biggest filers all wait till the very last day," and those filings will show spot bitcoin ETF holdings three months later than the data in Galaxy's essay.
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