Key Takeaways
- • Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says the company is working to raise East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline) capacity to 10 million barrels a day from about 7 million today, with engineering studies on additional export routes underway.
- • The expansion would take two to three years, according to Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, and would add roughly 3 million barrels a day.
- • Gilbert Metcalf, MIT Sloan visiting professor and former U.S. Treasury deputy assistant secretary, estimates the added flow would put about 2% more oil into global markets, possibly lowering prices only a bit.
- • The Petroline has been hit repeatedly in 2026, including a Sept. 10 drone attack that forced a shutdown until Sept. 22 per Kpler, and an Oct. 4 pumping-station attack reported by AFP.
- • Kpler data shows Hormuz oil exports averaged just under 9 million barrels a day in September, roughly 44% of February's level, underscoring the limits of the bypass.
Summary
Saudi Aramco is seeking to expand its East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, the Petroline, to 10 million barrels a day from about 7 million, according to CEO Amin Nasser, who spoke to Al Arabiya Business in his first interview since the war began. The company is also running engineering studies on additional export routes. The expansion, which Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman previously said would take two to three years at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh, is intended to reduce the kingdom's reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely choked off since the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Saudi crude output fell below 7 million barrels a day for much of the war's first six months, from more than 10 million before the conflict, and recovered to about 8 million in September, according to the International Energy Agency.
The Petroline runs roughly 750 miles from the Abqaiq processing hub to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and typically carried about 2 million barrels a day before the war. Aramco ramped it to full 7 million-barrel capacity by late March, with about 2 million barrels feeding Saudi refineries. The pipeline helped Aramco post a 25% jump in first-quarter profit.
The near-term price impact may be limited. Gilbert Metcalf of the MIT Sloan School of Management, a former U.S. Treasury official, told Fortune that a 10 million-barrel flow would add about 2% to global supply, which could lower prices a bit, but he cited uncertainty around the project's execution, the vulnerability of the pipeline to drone and missile attacks, and whether sufficient refinery capacity exists to process the additional crude.
The line has been attacked repeatedly. Houthi drones struck a pumping station in May 2019. In 2026, an April 9 strike cut throughput by about 700,000 barrels a day until capacity was restored days later. Drones struck the line in the Riyadh and Medina regions on Sept. 10, which Saudi officials said were launched from Iraq, forcing a shutdown until Sept. 22 according to Kpler. An Oct. 4 attack on a pumping station in Khurais halted flows according to an AFP Saudi energy-sector source, though Bloomberg reported oil continued to move. The Red Sea end is also exposed: the Houthis declared a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in July and in September seized control of the area around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which southbound tankers from Yanbu must pass.
Metcalf argued that a larger Petroline would do little to relieve dependence on Hormuz. Kpler figures show Hormuz exports averaged just under 9 million barrels a day in September, roughly 44% of February levels, even as Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Gulf crude flows had recovered to 80% to 90% of prewar levels. The UAE is also fast-tracking its own pipeline. Aramco, 81.5% owned by the Saudi government with the Public Investment Fund holding 16%, is the world's largest oil company and plans to raise gas output 80% by 2030 from 2021 levels. Metcalf added that regional power has shifted toward Iran as a result of the attacks, a development he called unthinkable a year earlier.
The Petroline runs roughly 750 miles from the Abqaiq processing hub to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and typically carried about 2 million barrels a day before the war. Aramco ramped it to full 7 million-barrel capacity by late March, with about 2 million barrels feeding Saudi refineries. The pipeline helped Aramco post a 25% jump in first-quarter profit.
The near-term price impact may be limited. Gilbert Metcalf of the MIT Sloan School of Management, a former U.S. Treasury official, told Fortune that a 10 million-barrel flow would add about 2% to global supply, which could lower prices a bit, but he cited uncertainty around the project's execution, the vulnerability of the pipeline to drone and missile attacks, and whether sufficient refinery capacity exists to process the additional crude.
The line has been attacked repeatedly. Houthi drones struck a pumping station in May 2019. In 2026, an April 9 strike cut throughput by about 700,000 barrels a day until capacity was restored days later. Drones struck the line in the Riyadh and Medina regions on Sept. 10, which Saudi officials said were launched from Iraq, forcing a shutdown until Sept. 22 according to Kpler. An Oct. 4 attack on a pumping station in Khurais halted flows according to an AFP Saudi energy-sector source, though Bloomberg reported oil continued to move. The Red Sea end is also exposed: the Houthis declared a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in July and in September seized control of the area around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which southbound tankers from Yanbu must pass.
Metcalf argued that a larger Petroline would do little to relieve dependence on Hormuz. Kpler figures show Hormuz exports averaged just under 9 million barrels a day in September, roughly 44% of February levels, even as Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Gulf crude flows had recovered to 80% to 90% of prewar levels. The UAE is also fast-tracking its own pipeline. Aramco, 81.5% owned by the Saudi government with the Public Investment Fund holding 16%, is the world's largest oil company and plans to raise gas output 80% by 2030 from 2021 levels. Metcalf added that regional power has shifted toward Iran as a result of the attacks, a development he called unthinkable a year earlier.
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