Key Takeaways
- • John Huber of Saber Capital Management argues that the Tampa Bay Rays' small-ball approach, which won 98 games and reached the 2026 ALCS, shows how herd behavior creates market inefficiency in baseball, much as it does in investing.
- • Huber contends that Moneyball was always about buying undervalued assets, not maximizing a single metric, and that the Rays exploit the bunt, base hit and stolen base, which analytics-driven teams have deprioritized.
- • Huber says many high-quality compounders trading at 40-50x earnings have fallen 50-80% (including CSU, LVMH, CPRT, INTU and NKE), and he argues such stocks should be sold because there is no margin of safety at those multiples.
- • Huber emphasizes independent thinking, adaptability and the risk of owning consensus-favored assets, citing Buffett's history of shifting strategies and the late-1990s market breadth parallel.
Summary
In an October 12, 2026 post on Base Hit Investing, John Huber of Saber Capital Management uses the Tampa Bay Rays' strategy as a framework for discussing herd behavior and market inefficiency. He references a Wall Street Journal piece on the Rays, who won 98 games and advanced to the American League Championship Series with a strategy built on bunting, stealing bases and hitting ground balls. Huber argues that the Rays have found value in tactics that modern analytics has deprioritized.
Huber contends that Moneyball, popularized by Billy Beane and the early-2000s Oakland A's, was never about maximizing on-base percentage or any single metric. Rather, it was about buying runs at a discount. He cites league-wide trends: MLB teams batted .270 and struck out 6.5 times per game in 2000, compared with .243 and 8.4 strikeouts in 2026. Per Huber's rankings, the Rays ranked 29th in hard-hit balls and 30th in launch angle, yet first in strikeouts avoided, batting average and sacrifice bunts.
Applying the same logic to investing, Huber argues that high-ROIC compounders become poor investments once consensus crowds into them. He says stocks including CSU, LVMH, CPRT, ZTS, POOL, VRSK, ROL, AMT, INTU and NKE are down 50-80% from their peaks, and that FICO, which exceeded a 100x P/E, is down about 75%. He argues these businesses lack a margin of safety at 40-50x earnings, and he disagrees with Charlie Munger on selling such positions outright. Huber says he is not comfortable trying to identify the next 10-bagger.
Huber rejects the notion that markets are broken or that particular styles no longer work, citing Buffett's adaptability over more than 50 years. He compares the current market, in which the S&P 500 hits record highs on narrowing breadth with a large share of stocks in corrections, to the late 1990s, and sees opportunity for stock pickers. He notes that his fund, modeled on Buffett's partnerships, is long NFLX, GDOT and CPRT, and that the post is not a recommendation.
Huber contends that Moneyball, popularized by Billy Beane and the early-2000s Oakland A's, was never about maximizing on-base percentage or any single metric. Rather, it was about buying runs at a discount. He cites league-wide trends: MLB teams batted .270 and struck out 6.5 times per game in 2000, compared with .243 and 8.4 strikeouts in 2026. Per Huber's rankings, the Rays ranked 29th in hard-hit balls and 30th in launch angle, yet first in strikeouts avoided, batting average and sacrifice bunts.
Applying the same logic to investing, Huber argues that high-ROIC compounders become poor investments once consensus crowds into them. He says stocks including CSU, LVMH, CPRT, ZTS, POOL, VRSK, ROL, AMT, INTU and NKE are down 50-80% from their peaks, and that FICO, which exceeded a 100x P/E, is down about 75%. He argues these businesses lack a margin of safety at 40-50x earnings, and he disagrees with Charlie Munger on selling such positions outright. Huber says he is not comfortable trying to identify the next 10-bagger.
Huber rejects the notion that markets are broken or that particular styles no longer work, citing Buffett's adaptability over more than 50 years. He compares the current market, in which the S&P 500 hits record highs on narrowing breadth with a large share of stocks in corrections, to the late 1990s, and sees opportunity for stock pickers. He notes that his fund, modeled on Buffett's partnerships, is long NFLX, GDOT and CPRT, and that the post is not a recommendation.
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