Key Takeaways
- • As of Oct. 19, the U.S. had imported just 59,423 metric tons of beef under Trump's August proclamation, about 20% of the 300,000-ton target, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.
- • Ground beef averaged $6.79 per pound in September, down from $6.92 in August but still above $6.32 a year earlier, a 7% year-over-year increase per Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
- • Agricultural economists argue the lean trimmings being imported do not typically reach grocery shelves, since they are mostly blended with domestic fatty trimmings for fast-food chains, so the tariff cut is unlikely to lower retail prices.
- • American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall asked Trump to roll back the policy, estimating ranchers could lose $300 to $400 per head as imports depress cattle prices.
Summary
President Donald Trump signed a proclamation in August to temporarily import 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings at a reduced tariff rate, with shipments scheduled over 90 days from September through November. Trump said on Truth Social that the deal would reduce prices for Americans while giving room for the domestic herd to grow. As of Oct. 19, however, U.S. Customs and Border Protection data showed only 59,423 metric tons had arrived, roughly 20% of the target.
Retail beef prices have not responded meaningfully. Ground beef averaged $6.79 per pound in September according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, down slightly from $6.92 in August but still well above the $6.32 recorded a year earlier. That 7% annual increase has outpaced overall grocery inflation of roughly 2.5% to 2.9%, a gap that has made beef a visible affordability issue ahead of the midterm elections.
Agricultural economists are skeptical the policy can work. Derrell Peel, a livestock agribusiness professor at Oklahoma State University, said the imported lean trimmings are typically blended with domestic fatty trimmings and used mainly by fast-food restaurants rather than grocery stores. The industry already imports lean trimmings to meet demand, even absorbing tariffs, so cheaper supply does not necessarily raise consumption. Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economics professor at Kansas State University, attributes higher prices to demand, which rose 5.9% in the first six months of 2026 compared with a year earlier, rather than to shrinking herds, and argues that falling demand would be the more effective route to lower prices.
Cattle producers have pushed back. Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, asked Trump to roll back the policy, arguing it undercut a fragile cattle recovery while failing to benefit consumers and could cost ranchers $300 to $400 per head. Peel noted that the volume so far has been too small to have an overwhelming effect, and that producer frustration centers on government intervention in a historically free-market industry. The White House did not immediately respond to Fortune's request for comment.
Retail beef prices have not responded meaningfully. Ground beef averaged $6.79 per pound in September according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, down slightly from $6.92 in August but still well above the $6.32 recorded a year earlier. That 7% annual increase has outpaced overall grocery inflation of roughly 2.5% to 2.9%, a gap that has made beef a visible affordability issue ahead of the midterm elections.
Agricultural economists are skeptical the policy can work. Derrell Peel, a livestock agribusiness professor at Oklahoma State University, said the imported lean trimmings are typically blended with domestic fatty trimmings and used mainly by fast-food restaurants rather than grocery stores. The industry already imports lean trimmings to meet demand, even absorbing tariffs, so cheaper supply does not necessarily raise consumption. Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economics professor at Kansas State University, attributes higher prices to demand, which rose 5.9% in the first six months of 2026 compared with a year earlier, rather than to shrinking herds, and argues that falling demand would be the more effective route to lower prices.
Cattle producers have pushed back. Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, asked Trump to roll back the policy, arguing it undercut a fragile cattle recovery while failing to benefit consumers and could cost ranchers $300 to $400 per head. Peel noted that the volume so far has been too small to have an overwhelming effect, and that producer frustration centers on government intervention in a historically free-market industry. The White House did not immediately respond to Fortune's request for comment.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.