Key Takeaways
- • Corn prices rallied strongly on USDA production data, with September futures up 20 cents and December up 21¼ cents; NASS yield projection of 180.7 bpa came in below estimates, supporting the move, while acreage increased 1.4 million acres and production rose 13 million bushels from July WASDE.
- • Wheat complex posted broad gains led by Hard Red Winter futures, with September HRW up 40¼ cents and CBT wheat up 35 cents, while spring wheat lagged down 1¼ cents; 91% of winter wheat was harvested by mid-August, though condition ratings weakened to 51% good/excellent.
- • Soybeans gained on favorable balance sheet adjustments, with September up 18¾ cents and November up 16¼ cents; USDA raised acreage by 1.4 million acres and production by 44 million bushels to 4.519 billion bushels, with new crop export sales momentum at 1.446 million metric tons.
- • Cattle markets weakened significantly following industry consolidation announcements, with August live cattle down $8.07 and cash trade falling $7–$10 to $225–$228; Tyson Foods announced closure of its Joslin, Illinois facility (3,000 head/day) and sale of its Pasco, Washington plant (2,000 head/day).
- • Managed money reduced net long exposure across grains, trimming corn futures by 15,176 contracts, wheat by 7,615 contracts in CBT, and soybeans by 24,104 contracts as of mid-August, signaling profit-taking following the rally.
Summary
Agricultural commodity markets experienced mixed performance in the week ending August 17, 2026, as grains rallied on supportive USDA data and geopolitical developments, while cattle posted significant weakness amid industry consolidation announcements.
The corn market found decisive strength following USDA crop reports released during the week. September corn futures gained 20 cents with December up 21¼ cents, supported by the NASS initial yield projection of 180.7 bushels per acre, which came in below pre-report estimates. Despite acreage rising by 1.4 million acres, total production increased only 13 million bushels from the July WASDE to reflect the lower yield environment, while new crop ending stocks contracted 137 million bushels to 1.653 billion bushels. Crop progress remained steady with 64% of the U.S. corn crop in the dough stage and 16% dented as of August 9, with condition ratings holding at 61% good/excellent. Ethanol production rose 10,000 barrels per day to 1.117 million bpd in the week of August 7, with stocks increasing 274,000 barrels to 24.798 million barrels. Export demand showed a divergence between old and new crop business, with old crop sales at just 410,748 metric tons against new crop sales of 924,532 metric tons in the week ending August 6. Managed money trimmed net long exposure by 15,176 contracts to 166,770 contracts as of August 4, consistent with profit-taking on the rally.
The wheat complex emerged as the week's strongest performer, with Hard Red Winter futures leading gains. September HRW futures jumped 40¼ cents while CBT September wheat gained 35 cents, supported by the ongoing Black Sea uncertainty following Ukraine's ceasefire proposal to Russia, which was rejected. Minneapolis spring wheat lagged, declining 1¼ cents in the September contract. Harvest progress accelerated with 91% of the U.S. winter wheat crop harvested by August 11 and 24% of spring wheat harvested. However, condition ratings deteriorated, slipping 4 percentage points to 51% good/excellent with the Brugler500 index falling 339 points week-over-week. NASS crop production data showed 2026 wheat output at 1.531 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels from July, with 2026/27 ending stocks revised down 5 million bushels to 717 million bushels. Weekly export sales for 2026/27 totaled 255,931 metric tons. Managed money added back to their net short position by 7,615 contracts in CBT wheat to 31,401 contracts as of August 11, while Kansas City wheat spec traders cut their net long by 5,432 contracts to 27,622 contracts.
Soybeans posted solid gains as acreage and production revisions supported the complex. September soybean futures gained 18¾ cents with November up 16¼ cents, while soybean meal September futures rebounded $1.30 and bean oil posted a 120-point gain. NASS raised acreage by 1.4 million acres and projected yield at 52.7 bushels per acre, bringing 2026 production to 4.519 billion bushels, up 44 million bushels from the July WASDE. New crop ending stocks increased 10 million bushels to 320 million bushels. Crop progress remained robust with 93% blooming and 74% setting pods as of August 9, though condition ratings slipped 1 percentage point to 62% good/excellent. Export activity remained brisk, with Chinese buyers accounting for 641,000 metric tons sold via daily announcements, while new crop bookings reached 1.446 million metric tons. Managed money trimmed their net long position by 24,104 contracts to 101,362 contracts as of August 11.
Cattle markets deteriorated sharply following announcements of industry capacity reductions. August live cattle futures dropped $8.07, with cash feeder cattle falling $10.825. Cash trade retreated $7–$10 to $225–$228 per cwt. Tyson Foods announced the closure of its Joslin, Illinois processing plant with daily capacity of 3,000 head and the sale of its Pasco, Washington facility with daily capacity of 2,000 head. The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $8.86 week-over-week to $348.50. Wholesale boxed beef prices showed mixed signals, with the Choice/Select spread widening to $24.06; Choice boxes firmed $10.94 per cwt to $375.30 while Select declined $1.13 to $351.24. Weekly beef production rose 1.3% from the prior week to 456.7 million pounds but remained 1.4% below the same week last year, with year-to-date production down 5.5% on an 8% decline in slaughter. Managed money trimmed their net long position in live cattle futures by 1,405 contracts to 64,662 contracts as of August 11.
The corn market found decisive strength following USDA crop reports released during the week. September corn futures gained 20 cents with December up 21¼ cents, supported by the NASS initial yield projection of 180.7 bushels per acre, which came in below pre-report estimates. Despite acreage rising by 1.4 million acres, total production increased only 13 million bushels from the July WASDE to reflect the lower yield environment, while new crop ending stocks contracted 137 million bushels to 1.653 billion bushels. Crop progress remained steady with 64% of the U.S. corn crop in the dough stage and 16% dented as of August 9, with condition ratings holding at 61% good/excellent. Ethanol production rose 10,000 barrels per day to 1.117 million bpd in the week of August 7, with stocks increasing 274,000 barrels to 24.798 million barrels. Export demand showed a divergence between old and new crop business, with old crop sales at just 410,748 metric tons against new crop sales of 924,532 metric tons in the week ending August 6. Managed money trimmed net long exposure by 15,176 contracts to 166,770 contracts as of August 4, consistent with profit-taking on the rally.
The wheat complex emerged as the week's strongest performer, with Hard Red Winter futures leading gains. September HRW futures jumped 40¼ cents while CBT September wheat gained 35 cents, supported by the ongoing Black Sea uncertainty following Ukraine's ceasefire proposal to Russia, which was rejected. Minneapolis spring wheat lagged, declining 1¼ cents in the September contract. Harvest progress accelerated with 91% of the U.S. winter wheat crop harvested by August 11 and 24% of spring wheat harvested. However, condition ratings deteriorated, slipping 4 percentage points to 51% good/excellent with the Brugler500 index falling 339 points week-over-week. NASS crop production data showed 2026 wheat output at 1.531 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels from July, with 2026/27 ending stocks revised down 5 million bushels to 717 million bushels. Weekly export sales for 2026/27 totaled 255,931 metric tons. Managed money added back to their net short position by 7,615 contracts in CBT wheat to 31,401 contracts as of August 11, while Kansas City wheat spec traders cut their net long by 5,432 contracts to 27,622 contracts.
Soybeans posted solid gains as acreage and production revisions supported the complex. September soybean futures gained 18¾ cents with November up 16¼ cents, while soybean meal September futures rebounded $1.30 and bean oil posted a 120-point gain. NASS raised acreage by 1.4 million acres and projected yield at 52.7 bushels per acre, bringing 2026 production to 4.519 billion bushels, up 44 million bushels from the July WASDE. New crop ending stocks increased 10 million bushels to 320 million bushels. Crop progress remained robust with 93% blooming and 74% setting pods as of August 9, though condition ratings slipped 1 percentage point to 62% good/excellent. Export activity remained brisk, with Chinese buyers accounting for 641,000 metric tons sold via daily announcements, while new crop bookings reached 1.446 million metric tons. Managed money trimmed their net long position by 24,104 contracts to 101,362 contracts as of August 11.
Cattle markets deteriorated sharply following announcements of industry capacity reductions. August live cattle futures dropped $8.07, with cash feeder cattle falling $10.825. Cash trade retreated $7–$10 to $225–$228 per cwt. Tyson Foods announced the closure of its Joslin, Illinois processing plant with daily capacity of 3,000 head and the sale of its Pasco, Washington facility with daily capacity of 2,000 head. The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $8.86 week-over-week to $348.50. Wholesale boxed beef prices showed mixed signals, with the Choice/Select spread widening to $24.06; Choice boxes firmed $10.94 per cwt to $375.30 while Select declined $1.13 to $351.24. Weekly beef production rose 1.3% from the prior week to 456.7 million pounds but remained 1.4% below the same week last year, with year-to-date production down 5.5% on an 8% decline in slaughter. Managed money trimmed their net long position in live cattle futures by 1,405 contracts to 64,662 contracts as of August 11.
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