Key Takeaways
- • TTU Trend Following Index outperformed in September 2025 with +5.9% returns, followed closely by SG Trend (+5.7%), demonstrating broad momentum recovery across all seven tracked trend-following indexes.
- • Classic Trend Index has generated +117% cumulative returns since 2020 and sits near its historical high watermark, establishing it as the dominant performer over the long-term arc despite shorter-term competitors.
- • BTOP50 demonstrates superior risk-adjusted characteristics with the lowest drawdown (9.7%) and highest win rate (60.9%) among all seven indexes, positioning it as the resilience anchor for investors prioritizing consistency over peak returns.
- • All seven trend-following indexes rallied in September, with performance spread between TTU's 5.9% top return and BTOP50's 3.5%, indicating broad-based momentum across multiple systematic trading strategies and CTA approaches.
- • Structural, rules-based investing outperformed discretionary approaches, with the primary insight that "structure beats prediction" and the barbell strategy of pairing high-compounding performers with low-drawdown anchors optimizes risk-return trade-offs.
Summary
Trend-following strategies delivered across-the-board gains in September 2025, with momentum returning to systematic trading approaches and lifting all seven tracked indexes into positive territory. The TTU Trend Following Index led the cohort with a 5.9% monthly return, narrowly ahead of the SG Trend Index's 5.7% performance. Three additional indexes—Classic Trend, IASG, and Systematic Momentum—posted more modest but solid gains ranging from 4.3% to 4.9%, while BTOP50 and SG CTA contributed 3.5% and 3.9% respectively, rounding out a strong performance month for the trend-following community.
When examined over a longer investment horizon extending back to 2020, the Classic Trend Index emerges as the dominant performer, having generated +117% cumulative returns and positioning itself near its previous all-time high. This extended track record underscores the power of compounding through market cycles, even as shorter-term performers like TTU capture monthly momentum swings. The persistence of Classic Trend's outperformance reflects the efficacy of systematic trend-identification algorithms across multiple asset classes and market regimes.
BTOP50 distinguishes itself through its risk characteristics rather than absolute return leadership. The index maintains the lowest maximum drawdown across the cohort at 9.7% and the highest win rate at 60.9%—metrics that institutional investors and family offices prioritize when evaluating manager resilience and consistency. This profile makes BTOP50 particularly valuable as a ballast strategy within multi-manager trend-following allocations, protecting capital during drawdown periods while maintaining steady positive returns.
The broader insight reflected in September's results reinforces a fundamental principle for systematic investors: structural, rule-based frameworks consistently outperform discretionary prediction. The optimal allocation strategy combines high-compounding vehicles like Classic Trend with low-drawdown anchors like BTOP50, creating a barbell approach that balances recovery speed with storm-weathering stability. This demonstrates why managed futures and CTA strategies maintain institutional appeal despite periodic underperformance relative to equity markets.
When examined over a longer investment horizon extending back to 2020, the Classic Trend Index emerges as the dominant performer, having generated +117% cumulative returns and positioning itself near its previous all-time high. This extended track record underscores the power of compounding through market cycles, even as shorter-term performers like TTU capture monthly momentum swings. The persistence of Classic Trend's outperformance reflects the efficacy of systematic trend-identification algorithms across multiple asset classes and market regimes.
BTOP50 distinguishes itself through its risk characteristics rather than absolute return leadership. The index maintains the lowest maximum drawdown across the cohort at 9.7% and the highest win rate at 60.9%—metrics that institutional investors and family offices prioritize when evaluating manager resilience and consistency. This profile makes BTOP50 particularly valuable as a ballast strategy within multi-manager trend-following allocations, protecting capital during drawdown periods while maintaining steady positive returns.
The broader insight reflected in September's results reinforces a fundamental principle for systematic investors: structural, rule-based frameworks consistently outperform discretionary prediction. The optimal allocation strategy combines high-compounding vehicles like Classic Trend with low-drawdown anchors like BTOP50, creating a barbell approach that balances recovery speed with storm-weathering stability. This demonstrates why managed futures and CTA strategies maintain institutional appeal despite periodic underperformance relative to equity markets.
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