Calming Before the Storm. Ag Marketing Report 08/10/2026

Agricultural futures markets entered a period of relative calm this week ahead of the critical August 14 USDA Crop Production report, which will provide the first official National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates for 2026 corn and soybean yields along with acreage updates incorporating newly available Farm Service Agency data. The report carries elevated significance given last year's volatility around the same release, and traders are bracing for potential surprises in the data that could reignite price movement across the grain complex.

Corn futures posted modest losses as the market absorbed incremental crop deterioration. September corn futures closed down 1¾ cents while December contracts declined 2 cents, with the broader grain complex containing moves within a 1% band for most of the week. The NASS Crop Progress report released Monday showed 90% of the U.S. corn crop silking by August 2, with 43% in the dough stage and 6% dented. More concerning, condition ratings slipped another 2 percentage points to 61% good/excellent, reflected in the Brugler500 index declining 5 points to 356. On the demand side, ethanol production retreated 26,000 barrels per day to 1.107 million bpd in the week of July 31, while stocks slipped 202,000 barrels to 24.524 million barrels. June ethanol crushings reached a record 466.71 million bushels, up 4.43% year-over-year, though down 1.5% from May. Export activity strengthened considerably, with June corn exports totaling a record 7.926 MMT (312 million bushels), up 9.29% from May. Managed money funds added 13,547 futures and options contracts to their net long position, bringing the aggregate to 181,946 contracts as of August 4.

Soybeans experienced sharper pressure from wetter weather forecasts, with September futures losing 11¾ cents and November slipping 11¼ cents. Soybean meal fell $6.00 while bean oil surged 98 points. The NASS Crop Progress report indicated 88% of the U.S. soybean crop blooming by August 2, with 62% setting pods, while condition ratings held steady at 63% good/excellent (363 on the Brugler500 index). June soybean crushings totaled 217.8 million bushels, up 2.21% from May and 10.61% above the prior year. Export shipments totaled 1.917 MMT in June, the largest June total in four years but down 14.35% from May. USDA reported 1.116 MMT of new sales during the week, though spec traders trimmed net long positions by 29,535 contracts to 125,466 contracts. The wheat complex remained relatively steady, with SRW September up ½ cent and KC wheat 6½ cents higher, though Minneapolis spring wheat declined 10¼ cents as 98% of spring wheat had headed by August 2 with just 5% harvested.

In livestock markets, cattle trade posted modest gains with cash prices firming at $235 per cwt and August feeder cattle rising $3.625 despite midweek pressure. Boxed beef prices steadied with choice cuts up $2.98/cwt to $364.36 and select up $6.14 to $352.37, with the choice/select spread at $15.15. Weekly beef production declined 0.5% from the prior week and 2.7% below year-ago levels at 451.0 million pounds, with year-to-date production down 5.6% on an 8.1% slaughter decline. Hog futures faced sustained pressure, declining $3.35 from the prior Friday with the CME Lean Hog Index down $1.78 to $96.66. The pork carcass cutout finished the week at $101.50/cwt, up $1.49, while weekly pork production rose 0.3% week-over-week but remained 0.9% below year-ago levels at 488.1 million pounds. Cotton futures posted strength with December up 261 points as 88% of the U.S. cotton crop had squared by August 2 with 55% setting bolls, though condition ratings slipped 4 points to 42% good/excellent.