CME Group Agriculture Index November Market Update

The CME Group Agriculture Index (CMEAG), which tracks five sectors (Grains, Oilseeds, Livestock, Dairy and Lumber) through volume-weighted rolling futures, declined approximately 6% in October 2026, according to CME Group's monthly update. The loss erased much of the late-summer rally led by Grain and Oilseed futures, though the index remained up more than 6% year to date at month-end.

Grains and oilseeds accounted for most of the decline. The USDA's October 9 WASDE and Crop Production reports pressured Corn prices after the agency unexpectedly raised its average 2026 U.S. corn yield estimate by nearly 3 bushels per acre, lifting projected production and expanding 2026/27 domestic ending stocks by 18%. December Corn fell about 20 cents on the day to close at $4.805 per bushel. Soybeans initially rose 6 cents after the report, which raised the national yield projection from 52.8 to 53.1 bushels per acre, but later tumbled as supply effects spread, and strong crush softened oil and meal prices. Wheat followed a similar path after the USDA raised its ending stocks forecast, with weak export demand, a strong dollar and Black Sea competition weighing on Chicago SRW and KC HRW contracts. Oats were the worst performers, falling nearly 18% for the month. Rough Rice was the notable exception, rising after the USDA cut its 2026/27 U.S. crop 24% year over year to its lowest output in more than 30 years, reflecting a 22-pound-per-acre yield cut and harvested area near the lowest since the early 1970s.

Livestock was mixed. Feeder Cattle gained 1.25% and Live Cattle slipped 0.79%, as declining boxed beef prices eroded packer margins and cash bids. The USDA's October Cattle on Feed report showed September placements 12% below 2025 levels, the lowest September figure since the series began in 1996. Lean Hogs fell 15.20% to contract lows for December, with frozen pork supplies up 9% year over year according to the USDA's October Cold Storage report, despite smaller herd numbers in the September Hogs and Pigs report.

In dairy, Class III Milk rose 5.38% as Cash-Settled Cheese climbed 7.36% on holiday-related demand, with plants running near capacity. Nonfat Dry Milk was roughly flat at -0.26%, while Cash-Settled Butter fell 2.60% to multi-year lows below $1.32 per pound and Class IV Milk retreated 0.73% to $18.80 per hundredweight. Lumber fell 7.52%, with cash prices below $500 per thousand board feet, as seasonal demand slowed and 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose into the mid-7% range.