Key Takeaways
- • Commodities surged +10.49% in January 2026, while global equities gained +5.44%, marking a strong start to the year across all major asset classes.
- • J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts double-digit gains for both developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) equities throughout 2026, positioning equities to outperform cash and bonds.
- • Global economic growth is projected at 3.1% for 2026, with support from fiscal and monetary policy easing, though sticky inflation remains a constraint on further central bank rate cuts.
- • Commodity performance is expected to benefit from sturdy global GDP growth and approximately 50 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts anticipated in 2026, according to cyclical macro analysis.
- • International stocks are positioned for a strong 2026 driven by accelerating global growth, attractive valuations, and the resilience demonstrated by markets in 2025 despite tariff escalation and geopolitical tensions.
Summary
Global markets opened 2026 with broad-based strength, as investors capitalized on improving growth forecasts and policy support. Commodities led the rally with a +10.49% gain in January, while world equities advanced +5.44%, marking a fourth consecutive year of solid equity market gains. This dual strength reflects underlying economic resilience and suggests commodities may emerge as a major macro theme in the coming year, driven by both technical positioning and fundamental demand dynamics.
J.P. Morgan Global Research maintains a constructive outlook across most market segments, with both developed and emerging market equities expected to outperform traditional safe-haven assets including cash and bonds. The positive equity forecast is anchored in upgraded growth expectations across the curve entering 2026, underpinned by tailwinds from fiscal and monetary policy easing. Global economic growth is projected at 3.1% for 2026, slightly below 2025 and 2024 levels, with the United States, Europe, and emerging Asia driving the majority of growth.
Commodity strength is underpinned by a cyclical macro base case supporting favorable returns. Analysts project approximately 50 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which historically benefits commodity price appreciation. However, structural challenges remain: weak global demand, energy oversupply, and shifting geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility and pressure certain commodity segments. A diversified commodity portfolio is recommended to weather potential disruptions.
Despite the positive start, structural headwinds warrant attention. Sticky inflation persists on the global stage and constrains the ability of central banks to deliver aggressive rate-cut cycles. Additionally, 2025 demonstrated economic divergence, with strong technology-sector capital expenditure masking sharper-than-expected slowing in global job growth. Market resilience in 2025, despite tariff escalation and trade tensions, has not been accompanied by balanced growth patterns across sectors or geographies, suggesting selectivity will remain critical for investors navigating 2026.
J.P. Morgan Global Research maintains a constructive outlook across most market segments, with both developed and emerging market equities expected to outperform traditional safe-haven assets including cash and bonds. The positive equity forecast is anchored in upgraded growth expectations across the curve entering 2026, underpinned by tailwinds from fiscal and monetary policy easing. Global economic growth is projected at 3.1% for 2026, slightly below 2025 and 2024 levels, with the United States, Europe, and emerging Asia driving the majority of growth.
Commodity strength is underpinned by a cyclical macro base case supporting favorable returns. Analysts project approximately 50 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which historically benefits commodity price appreciation. However, structural challenges remain: weak global demand, energy oversupply, and shifting geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility and pressure certain commodity segments. A diversified commodity portfolio is recommended to weather potential disruptions.
Despite the positive start, structural headwinds warrant attention. Sticky inflation persists on the global stage and constrains the ability of central banks to deliver aggressive rate-cut cycles. Additionally, 2025 demonstrated economic divergence, with strong technology-sector capital expenditure masking sharper-than-expected slowing in global job growth. Market resilience in 2025, despite tariff escalation and trade tensions, has not been accompanied by balanced growth patterns across sectors or geographies, suggesting selectivity will remain critical for investors navigating 2026.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.