I often tell customers that grains often perform an admirable role in portfolios. While the Middle East tensions push headlines about energy and Fed action influences gold prices, commodities like wheat and soybeans march to their own rhythm. Driven mostly by the weather outlook and planting decisions across thousands of disparate farms, the natural process required to feed an entire planet creates unique correlation. Geopolitics and currency strength play a role but not nearly the same way it does in other sectors. Right now, prices are moving.
The 2025 Crop
Headlines about tariffs dominated crop news in 2025 as Trump and China sparred over the trade imbalance. The result was a shift in buying preferences to South America and a decline in U.S. soybean demand. Farmers shifted their planting accordingly and added more corn acreage than at any time since 1936. Improved technology and modern farming drove record yields (amount harvested per acre) in many states for both corn and soybeans. The massive corn crop of nearly 17 billion bushels pushed prices down near multi-year lows.
In the United States, corn and soybeans dominate with approximately 180 million acres planted between them in 2025. For purposes of this article, it makes sense to focus on those as a proxy for other grains, including wheat and other soybean derivatives, specifically soybean oil and soybean meal. We discussed these in depth with our Grain 101 article.
The charts below show the result of normal weather fears and trade talks that resulted in a choppy but declining market as the true supply became clear. Soybeans rallied late as China and the U.S. agreed to purchases only to have the rally fade as South American weather proved favorable for growing conditions.
Corn Prices 2025
End of Year Corn Prices
Soybean Prices 2025
End of Year Soybean Prices
Early 2026
Starting from depressed levels, weather fears, including above average temperatures and light rainfall during the most sensitive growth phases, began to push prices higher heading into May. Trade agreements with China renewed demand for soybeans, resulting in a planting shift away from corn. The glut of storage from the previous bumper crop in that commodity contributed to this re-allocation. Wheat planting hit close to a record low, nearing the 1919 level, in the U.S. as a result of massive crops in other regions of the world, including China, Russia, and the European Union.
A mid-May shift pushed corn and soybeans lower as supply concerns faded. Corn fell 16% by the end of June and Soybeans lost 8%. Trend managers began to shift to the short side during this period which worked well until a late June shift. A stronger U.S. dollar caused prices to rise in relative terms for foreign buyers, dampening demand a bit as well.
Corn Prices 2026
Soybean Prices 2026
July Rally
Hot dry weather clashed with an oversold market in late June, resulting in spikes of approximately 8% in corn and almost 7% in soybeans. Often, we see technical traders push a market beyond its equilibrium point as systems begin trading in the same direction. Reversals become more severe as they exit on the subsequent normalization. As the Iran War slowed, the decline in energy prices helped farmer margins. This often results in a better ability to stay in their long positions and reduce selling pressure.
Outlook
While other commodities get headlines, percentage moves in grains are still significant. The outlook is still far from set. Haze from wildfires in Canada is spreading across the Midwest currently. This is filtering some of the sunlight but counterintuitively, the smoke can diffuse rays further into the canopy potentially making up for the reduced photosynthesis. This is running breakeven for now but continued poor air quality could become a factor. Hot weather with little rainfall is fine for brief periods following a wet Spring but drier conditions could begin to affect yields. As always, President Trump’s relationship with China and Mexico, our biggest soybean and corn customers respectively, can change the dynamics quickly.
In the meantime, our CTAs continue to gauge the direction. The independent movement from traditional asset classes is proving that they can be a useful diversifier once again. Our traders are certainly not complaining about a lack of movement right now. Hopefully, they can capitalize on the momentum.
Key Takeaways
Grains continue to offer valuable diversification, moving largely on weather, supply fundamentals, and planting decisions rather than traditional macroeconomic forces.
The 2025 crop year demonstrated how record U.S. production and shifting trade flows can pressure prices, while 2026 has already shown how quickly weather concerns and renewed demand can spark rallies.
July’s approximately 7–8% moves in corn and soybeans highlight the tactical opportunities available in grain markets for both fundamental and trend-following strategies.
While the near-term outlook remains weather-driven, long-term supply abundance suggests range-bound trading unless significant crop stress or major trade developments occur.
For portfolios, grains remain an attractive diversifier — especially in environments where geopolitics and currency moves dominate other asset classes.
Sources
Barchart.com
Macrotrends.net
CME Group
UDSA Reports
CFTC Commitment of Traders Reports
The 2025 Crop
Headlines about tariffs dominated crop news in 2025 as Trump and China sparred over the trade imbalance. The result was a shift in buying preferences to South America and a decline in U.S. soybean demand. Farmers shifted their planting accordingly and added more corn acreage than at any time since 1936. Improved technology and modern farming drove record yields (amount harvested per acre) in many states for both corn and soybeans. The massive corn crop of nearly 17 billion bushels pushed prices down near multi-year lows.
In the United States, corn and soybeans dominate with approximately 180 million acres planted between them in 2025. For purposes of this article, it makes sense to focus on those as a proxy for other grains, including wheat and other soybean derivatives, specifically soybean oil and soybean meal. We discussed these in depth with our Grain 101 article.
The charts below show the result of normal weather fears and trade talks that resulted in a choppy but declining market as the true supply became clear. Soybeans rallied late as China and the U.S. agreed to purchases only to have the rally fade as South American weather proved favorable for growing conditions.
Corn Prices 2025
End of Year Corn Prices
Soybean Prices 2025
End of Year Soybean Prices
Early 2026
Starting from depressed levels, weather fears, including above average temperatures and light rainfall during the most sensitive growth phases, began to push prices higher heading into May. Trade agreements with China renewed demand for soybeans, resulting in a planting shift away from corn. The glut of storage from the previous bumper crop in that commodity contributed to this re-allocation. Wheat planting hit close to a record low, nearing the 1919 level, in the U.S. as a result of massive crops in other regions of the world, including China, Russia, and the European Union.
A mid-May shift pushed corn and soybeans lower as supply concerns faded. Corn fell 16% by the end of June and Soybeans lost 8%. Trend managers began to shift to the short side during this period which worked well until a late June shift. A stronger U.S. dollar caused prices to rise in relative terms for foreign buyers, dampening demand a bit as well.
Corn Prices 2026
Soybean Prices 2026
July Rally
Hot dry weather clashed with an oversold market in late June, resulting in spikes of approximately 8% in corn and almost 7% in soybeans. Often, we see technical traders push a market beyond its equilibrium point as systems begin trading in the same direction. Reversals become more severe as they exit on the subsequent normalization. As the Iran War slowed, the decline in energy prices helped farmer margins. This often results in a better ability to stay in their long positions and reduce selling pressure.
Outlook
While other commodities get headlines, percentage moves in grains are still significant. The outlook is still far from set. Haze from wildfires in Canada is spreading across the Midwest currently. This is filtering some of the sunlight but counterintuitively, the smoke can diffuse rays further into the canopy potentially making up for the reduced photosynthesis. This is running breakeven for now but continued poor air quality could become a factor. Hot weather with little rainfall is fine for brief periods following a wet Spring but drier conditions could begin to affect yields. As always, President Trump’s relationship with China and Mexico, our biggest soybean and corn customers respectively, can change the dynamics quickly.
In the meantime, our CTAs continue to gauge the direction. The independent movement from traditional asset classes is proving that they can be a useful diversifier once again. Our traders are certainly not complaining about a lack of movement right now. Hopefully, they can capitalize on the momentum.
Key Takeaways
Grains continue to offer valuable diversification, moving largely on weather, supply fundamentals, and planting decisions rather than traditional macroeconomic forces.
The 2025 crop year demonstrated how record U.S. production and shifting trade flows can pressure prices, while 2026 has already shown how quickly weather concerns and renewed demand can spark rallies.
July’s approximately 7–8% moves in corn and soybeans highlight the tactical opportunities available in grain markets for both fundamental and trend-following strategies.
While the near-term outlook remains weather-driven, long-term supply abundance suggests range-bound trading unless significant crop stress or major trade developments occur.
For portfolios, grains remain an attractive diversifier — especially in environments where geopolitics and currency moves dominate other asset classes.
Sources
Barchart.com
Macrotrends.net
CME Group
UDSA Reports
CFTC Commitment of Traders Reports
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