Key Takeaways
- • Rice planted area expected to contract 12% in 2026 due to sustained low prices, with global production anticipated to decline despite moderate U.S. demand and weakened export activity.
- • Wheat markets diverged by region, with Kansas City leading higher amid dry Great Plains conditions, while Chicago and Minneapolis showed mixed trends; support/resistance levels indicate consolidation between 552–625 (Chicago May) and 560–678 (Kansas City May).
- • Corn demand remains robust despite excessive supplies, with farmers in central and southern Midwest initiating spring planting; Argentine production expected to be substantial, moderating price support.
- • Soybean complex pressured by wet Midwest conditions, geopolitical disruption, and tariff headwinds; Brazil's soybean harvest exceeded 65% completion while Chinese import uncertainty due to Iran conflict and new trade rules weighed on prices.
- • Palm oil prices firmed modestly (May RBD up $2.50/ton to $1,192.50) amid ongoing geopolitical risk, while canola gained ground; Iran conflict remains a persistent demand and logistics constraint across all soft commodities.
Summary
Global grain and oilseed markets on April 24, 2026 reflected a complex interplay of regional weather disparities, geopolitical friction, and supply-demand imbalances across major commodity categories.
Wheat markets posted mixed performance, with Kansas City contracts closing higher on dry conditions affecting the western Great Plains, though isolated showers were reported and forecast for the region. Chicago wheat showed mixed trends with support established at 552, 558, and 564 May and resistance at 612, 616, and 625 May. Kansas City exhibited mixed-to-up momentum, with support at 560, 567, and 580 May and resistance at 666, 672, and 678 May. The broader weather backdrop remained unfavorable: conditions were too dry across much of the U.S. Great Plains while excessive moisture plagued the Midwest and western Europe, creating suboptimal production and quality potential. Warmer temperatures and scattered precipitation forecast for the coming week may gradually ease drought stress.
Rice futures declined on profit-taking despite mixed-to-positive technical trends. The USDA projected planted area would fall approximately 12% in the coming year, driven by depressed prices that have discouraged acreage expansion globally. Demand for U.S. rice remained moderate with softening export interest. Support levels in May contracts stood at 1036, 1055, and 1063, with resistance at 1127, 1143, and 1156.
Corn traded lower intraday despite earlier strength, as farmers weighed planting decisions with some in the central and southern Midwest commencing operations. Strong demand persisted according to USDA flash sales reports; however, excessive supplies documented in recent USDA inventories constrained upside. Chicago had received record spring rainfall, creating uneven planting windows. Argentine conditions were rated good with large production expected, adding downward pressure on North American prices. Corn May support was positioned at 432, 435, and 438, with resistance at 460, 470, and 474. Oats moved higher but remained in a downtrend on daily charts, with support at 288, 300, and 312 May and resistance at 353, 360, and 380 May.
Soybean complex weakness stemmed from multiple headwinds. Excessive Midwest moisture delayed planting, while Brazil's harvest surpassed 65% completion, increasing global supply pressure. Geopolitical risk surrounding the Iran conflict and resultant trade uncertainty—including new Chinese import restrictions—raised concerns about export demand destruction. U.S. tariff disputes with foreign trading partners added structural cost pressures. Soybean May support rested at 1127, 1137, and 1144 with resistance at 1184, 1216, and 1234. Soybean meal posted mixed trends (support at 315.00, 318.00, 323.00 May; resistance at 336.00, 342.00, 348.00 May), while soybean oil strengthened with support at 6250, 6280, and 6420 May and resistance at 7260, 7320, and 7380 May.
Palm oil and canola markets remained sensitive to geopolitical risk and demand dynamics. Malaysian refined, bleached, and deodorized (RBD) palm oil for May delivery rose $2.50/ton to $1,192.50 FOB Malaysian ports, with forward contracts (Jun–Dec) also gaining $2.50–$7.50/ton. Canola gained ground with mixed technical positioning (support at 669.00, 682.00, 701.00 May; resistance at 736.00, 743.00, 758.00 May). The Iran conflict remained an overarching risk factor, elevating energy costs and threatening supply-chain logistics while demand outlooks remained uncertain.
Export sales activity for the week ended April 16 showed continued strength in coarse grains and oilseeds, with corn commitments totaling 74.1 million metric tons (net change +1.3 million MT) and soybeans at 38.5 million MT (net change +365 thousand MT). Wheat shipments reached 24.5 million MT (net change +129 thousand MT), signaling sustained international interest despite domestic supply pressures.
Wheat markets posted mixed performance, with Kansas City contracts closing higher on dry conditions affecting the western Great Plains, though isolated showers were reported and forecast for the region. Chicago wheat showed mixed trends with support established at 552, 558, and 564 May and resistance at 612, 616, and 625 May. Kansas City exhibited mixed-to-up momentum, with support at 560, 567, and 580 May and resistance at 666, 672, and 678 May. The broader weather backdrop remained unfavorable: conditions were too dry across much of the U.S. Great Plains while excessive moisture plagued the Midwest and western Europe, creating suboptimal production and quality potential. Warmer temperatures and scattered precipitation forecast for the coming week may gradually ease drought stress.
Rice futures declined on profit-taking despite mixed-to-positive technical trends. The USDA projected planted area would fall approximately 12% in the coming year, driven by depressed prices that have discouraged acreage expansion globally. Demand for U.S. rice remained moderate with softening export interest. Support levels in May contracts stood at 1036, 1055, and 1063, with resistance at 1127, 1143, and 1156.
Corn traded lower intraday despite earlier strength, as farmers weighed planting decisions with some in the central and southern Midwest commencing operations. Strong demand persisted according to USDA flash sales reports; however, excessive supplies documented in recent USDA inventories constrained upside. Chicago had received record spring rainfall, creating uneven planting windows. Argentine conditions were rated good with large production expected, adding downward pressure on North American prices. Corn May support was positioned at 432, 435, and 438, with resistance at 460, 470, and 474. Oats moved higher but remained in a downtrend on daily charts, with support at 288, 300, and 312 May and resistance at 353, 360, and 380 May.
Soybean complex weakness stemmed from multiple headwinds. Excessive Midwest moisture delayed planting, while Brazil's harvest surpassed 65% completion, increasing global supply pressure. Geopolitical risk surrounding the Iran conflict and resultant trade uncertainty—including new Chinese import restrictions—raised concerns about export demand destruction. U.S. tariff disputes with foreign trading partners added structural cost pressures. Soybean May support rested at 1127, 1137, and 1144 with resistance at 1184, 1216, and 1234. Soybean meal posted mixed trends (support at 315.00, 318.00, 323.00 May; resistance at 336.00, 342.00, 348.00 May), while soybean oil strengthened with support at 6250, 6280, and 6420 May and resistance at 7260, 7320, and 7380 May.
Palm oil and canola markets remained sensitive to geopolitical risk and demand dynamics. Malaysian refined, bleached, and deodorized (RBD) palm oil for May delivery rose $2.50/ton to $1,192.50 FOB Malaysian ports, with forward contracts (Jun–Dec) also gaining $2.50–$7.50/ton. Canola gained ground with mixed technical positioning (support at 669.00, 682.00, 701.00 May; resistance at 736.00, 743.00, 758.00 May). The Iran conflict remained an overarching risk factor, elevating energy costs and threatening supply-chain logistics while demand outlooks remained uncertain.
Export sales activity for the week ended April 16 showed continued strength in coarse grains and oilseeds, with corn commitments totaling 74.1 million metric tons (net change +1.3 million MT) and soybeans at 38.5 million MT (net change +365 thousand MT). Wheat shipments reached 24.5 million MT (net change +129 thousand MT), signaling sustained international interest despite domestic supply pressures.
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