Key Takeaways
- • Wheat rallied to new highs amid persistent drought in the U.S. Great Plains; isolated western showers insufficient to resolve dry conditions, though Midwest and western Europe remain wet, pressuring quality potential across regions.
- • Rice planted area expected to contract 12% year-over-year due to sustained low prices, with USDA announcing world market milled rice at $13.16/cwt (long grain) and rough rice at $8.21/cwt, while daily trends remain downward on long liquidation ahead of First Notice Day.
- • Geopolitical supply risks dominating grain and oilseed markets: The ongoing Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure continue driving up input costs and shipping expenses across corn, soybeans, and coffee; traders cite uncertainty around risk management and war resolution.
- • Corn remained higher on strong demand despite excessive supplies, with central and southern Midwest farmers beginning plantations; Chicago recorded record spring rainfall, moderating immediate drought concerns, though Argentina's expected large production weighs on prices.
- • Soybeans pressured by excessive Midwest moisture and South American harvests, with Brazil crops now 65%+ harvested; U.S.-China tariff tensions and import rule changes threaten demand absorption, while soybean meal and oil show mixed-to-up technical trends.
Summary
Global grain and oilseed markets closed April 29, 2026, with divergent directional pressures reflecting regional weather variability, geopolitical supply disruptions, and demand uncertainty across major producing and consuming regions.
Wheat closed higher across both Chicago and Kansas City contracts, reaching new highs for the recent trading move as drought conditions persisted across the U.S. Great Plains. While isolated showers were reported and forecasted for the western Great Plains, precipitation proved insufficient to alleviate stress. Chicago support levels held at 623, 613, and 602 May, with resistance at 650, 656, and 662 May, while Kansas City showed mixed-to-up trends with support at 645, 629, and 605 May and resistance at 696, 702, and 708 May. Conditions in the U.S. Midwest and western Europe remained wet, creating competing quality concerns that limit upside for global wheat pricing.
Rice traded lower on long liquidation before First Notice Day, with daily trends remaining down. The USDA reported a significant structural shift: planted area is expected to decline approximately 12% in the coming year, reflecting sustained low-price pressure on farmer economics. World market milled rice prices for long grain settled at $13.16 per cwt, with rough rice equivalent at $8.21 per cwt; medium and short grain milled rice was quoted at $12.86 per cwt (rough: $8.48/cwt). Marketing loan gain and loan deficiency payment rates remained at zero across grain categories. U.S. export demand has deteriorated recently despite moderate domestic demand, a headwind for price recovery in the near term.
Corn advanced on the back of sustained strong demand and geopolitical risk premium associated with the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure, which continue elevating transportation and input costs. Farmers in central and southern Midwest regions began planting operations. Chicago recorded record spring rainfall year-to-date, tempering immediate drought concerns, though the USDA's recent inventory reports indicate excessive supplies remain in the pipeline despite higher price trends. Argentina's anticipated large production output continues to anchor global pricing. Corn support levels were set at 457, 453, and 446 May, with resistance at 470, 474, and 476 May.
Soybeans declined as excessive Midwest moisture delayed planting windows and South American harvests accelerated, with Brazil's crop now surpassing 65% completion. Traders discussed the potential for increased soybean plantings if corn planting delays persist. The Iran war and Hormuz closure remain supply-chain cost drivers. Critically, U.S.-China tariff hostilities and newly imposed Chinese import rules threaten demand absorption for U.S. soybean exports, a material headwind alongside South American competition. Soybean support held at 1144, 1137, and 1127 May, with resistance at 1184, 1216, and 1234 May. Soybean meal and oil derivatives showed mixed-to-up technicals, with meal resistance at 342.00, 348.00, and 354.00 May, and oil resistance at 7320, 7380, and 7440 May.
Palm oil futures rose on El Niño production disruption concerns. Malaysian refined, bleached, and deodorized palm oil (RBD) offers advanced $10.00 per metric ton across May through January/February/March contracts, trading in the $1,195–$1,210 range. Canola remained mixed to higher, with support at 701.00, 682.00, and 669.00 May and resistance at 736.00, 743.00, and 758.00 May. Geopolitical risk premiums and solid demand underpin softer commodity pricing despite adequate global supplies.
Wheat closed higher across both Chicago and Kansas City contracts, reaching new highs for the recent trading move as drought conditions persisted across the U.S. Great Plains. While isolated showers were reported and forecasted for the western Great Plains, precipitation proved insufficient to alleviate stress. Chicago support levels held at 623, 613, and 602 May, with resistance at 650, 656, and 662 May, while Kansas City showed mixed-to-up trends with support at 645, 629, and 605 May and resistance at 696, 702, and 708 May. Conditions in the U.S. Midwest and western Europe remained wet, creating competing quality concerns that limit upside for global wheat pricing.
Rice traded lower on long liquidation before First Notice Day, with daily trends remaining down. The USDA reported a significant structural shift: planted area is expected to decline approximately 12% in the coming year, reflecting sustained low-price pressure on farmer economics. World market milled rice prices for long grain settled at $13.16 per cwt, with rough rice equivalent at $8.21 per cwt; medium and short grain milled rice was quoted at $12.86 per cwt (rough: $8.48/cwt). Marketing loan gain and loan deficiency payment rates remained at zero across grain categories. U.S. export demand has deteriorated recently despite moderate domestic demand, a headwind for price recovery in the near term.
Corn advanced on the back of sustained strong demand and geopolitical risk premium associated with the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure, which continue elevating transportation and input costs. Farmers in central and southern Midwest regions began planting operations. Chicago recorded record spring rainfall year-to-date, tempering immediate drought concerns, though the USDA's recent inventory reports indicate excessive supplies remain in the pipeline despite higher price trends. Argentina's anticipated large production output continues to anchor global pricing. Corn support levels were set at 457, 453, and 446 May, with resistance at 470, 474, and 476 May.
Soybeans declined as excessive Midwest moisture delayed planting windows and South American harvests accelerated, with Brazil's crop now surpassing 65% completion. Traders discussed the potential for increased soybean plantings if corn planting delays persist. The Iran war and Hormuz closure remain supply-chain cost drivers. Critically, U.S.-China tariff hostilities and newly imposed Chinese import rules threaten demand absorption for U.S. soybean exports, a material headwind alongside South American competition. Soybean support held at 1144, 1137, and 1127 May, with resistance at 1184, 1216, and 1234 May. Soybean meal and oil derivatives showed mixed-to-up technicals, with meal resistance at 342.00, 348.00, and 354.00 May, and oil resistance at 7320, 7380, and 7440 May.
Palm oil futures rose on El Niño production disruption concerns. Malaysian refined, bleached, and deodorized palm oil (RBD) offers advanced $10.00 per metric ton across May through January/February/March contracts, trading in the $1,195–$1,210 range. Canola remained mixed to higher, with support at 701.00, 682.00, and 669.00 May and resistance at 736.00, 743.00, and 758.00 May. Geopolitical risk premiums and solid demand underpin softer commodity pricing despite adequate global supplies.
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