Key Takeaways
- • U.S. wheat production downgraded 18 million bushels to 1,543 million for 2026/27, driven by lower Hard Red Winter yields (down 0.5 bu/acre to 47.0 bu/acre); ending stocks projected at 744 million bushels, 20% below prior year, with season-average farm price reduced $0.50 to $6.00/bushel.
- • Global wheat supplies raised 1.7 million tons to 1,100 million tons, supported by record Turkish production (22.5 million tons) and stronger Russian output (88.0 million tons on favorable weather), partially offset by Australian production cut to 28.0 million tons.
- • Middle East conflict creates severe fertilizer supply shock, with 30% of global urea exports blocked and ammonia/urea prices spiking; Fertiglobe CEO warns nitrogen fertilizer constraints risk crop yield depression across Southern Hemisphere, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and India during critical planting seasons.
- • Global corn production forecast raised 5.8 million tons to 1.594 billion, with larger harvests from India, Brazil, and Argentina offsetting Mexican declines; U.S. corn balance sheet virtually unchanged at $4.40/bushel season-average price amid strong Midwest conditions.
- • Rice ending stocks reach highest level since 1985/86 at 54.8 million cwt, while global trade projected at record 63.0 million tons; global soybean ending stocks raised to 124.9 million tons on higher Argentine carryover, though 2026/27 production lowered 0.2 million tons due to Russian harvested area reduction.
Summary
The June 11, 2026 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-672) report reflects a mixed supply outlook dominated by U.S. production headwinds offset by strength in Eastern European and regional producer capacity. U.S. wheat production was cut 18 million bushels to 1,543 million bushels for the 2026/27 season, with yields declining 0.5 bushels per acre to 47.0 bushels—a material reduction from the prior month's estimate. The decline was concentrated in Hard Red Winter wheat production, a core U.S. segment. Ending stocks were correspondingly reduced 18 million bushels to 744 million, representing a 20% year-over-year decrease. The season-average farm price was reduced $0.50 per bushel to $6.00, reflecting current futures and cash market pricing expectations. U.S. exports remain unchanged at 775 million bushels, down 15% from the prior marketing year.
Globally, the wheat picture brightened materially. Total world supplies were raised 1.7 million tons to 1,100 million tons, driven by exceptional production gains in Russia (up 2.0 million tons to 88.0 million) supported by near-ideal weather and above-average rainfall for winter wheat, despite reduced spring wheat planted area. Turkey reported record production of 22.5 million tons (up 1.5 million), and Ukraine added 0.5 million tons to reach 23.5 million, both benefiting from favorable spring weather conditions. These gains were partially offset by a 2.0 million ton reduction in Australian production to 28.0 million, attributed to lower harvested area per the latest ABARES quarterly data. Global wheat consumption rose 1.4 million tons to 824.6 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use in Russia. World ending stocks were raised 0.4 million tons to 275.4 million tons.
The coarse grains complex showed resilience with global corn production forecast 5.8 million tons higher at 1.594 billion tons. The U.S. corn balance sheet remained virtually unchanged, with fractionally higher beginning and ending stocks reflecting offsetting trade and domestic use shifts. The season-average farm price held steady at $4.40 per bushel. Foreign corn production strength centered on India, where government data indicated sharp area expansion and higher yields; Brazil and Argentina both posted production gains on improved crop development, while Mexico's output declined. Global corn exports are expected to rise from India and South Africa, with demand increases in Mexico, Egypt, and the Philippines. Ending global corn stocks reached 281.2 million tons, up 3.7 million from the prior month.
U.S. rice supplies rose modestly on increased beginning stocks, with 2025/26 exports reduced but only partially offset by lower imports. Crucially, 2025/26 ending stocks climbed 0.5 million cwt to 54.8 million cwt—the highest level since 1985/86. The season-average price remained unchanged at $13.50 per cwt. Globally, rice production for 2025/26 was raised 1.9 million tons to 544.7 million, primarily on India's Third Advanced Estimate raising production to a record 154.0 million tons. Global rice trade was projected at a record 63.0 million tons for 2026/27.
Soybean supply and price projections were unchanged for 2026/27, though 2025/26 crush increased on higher meal exports. Global soybean beginning stocks rose on stronger prior-year Argentine production (raised 2 million tons to 50 million), while 2026/27 global production declined 0.2 million tons due to reduced Russian harvested area. Global ending stocks for 2026/27 were raised 0.1 million tons to 124.9 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast at $11.40 per bushel.
Sugar production forecasts showed modest gains. U.S. beet sugar production increased 217,100 short tons raw value to 4.939 million, driven by higher national yields (31.94 tons/acre, up from 30.21 tons) despite flat harvested acreage. Florida cane sugar rose 36,800 short tons to 1.979 million following processors' reassessment of February freeze impacts and favorable spring conditions. U.S. sugar deliveries for human consumption rose 125,500 short tons to 12.385 million on stronger domestic demand. Mexico's sugar production for 2026/27 was projected at 5.283 million metric tons, a 1.0% increase, though constrained by elevated fertilizer costs and 2026 tax increases on sweetened beverages.
A critical supply-side risk emerged from Middle East conflict disruptions. Fertiglobe CEO Ahmed El-Hoshy warned that closure of the Persian Gulf Strait has blocked approximately 30% of global urea exports and spiked ammonia and urea fertilizer prices sharply due to supply loss and energy shocks. Nitrogen fertilizers are responsible for producing calories for roughly half of the world's 8 billion people. With farmers in the Southern Hemisphere currently in peak planting season and facing severely constrained access to credit or government support, the risk of depressed fertilizer usage is material. Missing critical planting windows could suppress crop yields for months ahead. Farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and India face disproportionate exposure given import dependency. The European Union announced €540 million ($625 million) in emergency financial support for farmers to offset fertilizer cost inflation. ING analysts characterized the unfolding situation as "a tragedy in slow motion," with months of supply lag-time creating acute downside risk to 2026/27 global production if geopolitical tensions persist.
Globally, the wheat picture brightened materially. Total world supplies were raised 1.7 million tons to 1,100 million tons, driven by exceptional production gains in Russia (up 2.0 million tons to 88.0 million) supported by near-ideal weather and above-average rainfall for winter wheat, despite reduced spring wheat planted area. Turkey reported record production of 22.5 million tons (up 1.5 million), and Ukraine added 0.5 million tons to reach 23.5 million, both benefiting from favorable spring weather conditions. These gains were partially offset by a 2.0 million ton reduction in Australian production to 28.0 million, attributed to lower harvested area per the latest ABARES quarterly data. Global wheat consumption rose 1.4 million tons to 824.6 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use in Russia. World ending stocks were raised 0.4 million tons to 275.4 million tons.
The coarse grains complex showed resilience with global corn production forecast 5.8 million tons higher at 1.594 billion tons. The U.S. corn balance sheet remained virtually unchanged, with fractionally higher beginning and ending stocks reflecting offsetting trade and domestic use shifts. The season-average farm price held steady at $4.40 per bushel. Foreign corn production strength centered on India, where government data indicated sharp area expansion and higher yields; Brazil and Argentina both posted production gains on improved crop development, while Mexico's output declined. Global corn exports are expected to rise from India and South Africa, with demand increases in Mexico, Egypt, and the Philippines. Ending global corn stocks reached 281.2 million tons, up 3.7 million from the prior month.
U.S. rice supplies rose modestly on increased beginning stocks, with 2025/26 exports reduced but only partially offset by lower imports. Crucially, 2025/26 ending stocks climbed 0.5 million cwt to 54.8 million cwt—the highest level since 1985/86. The season-average price remained unchanged at $13.50 per cwt. Globally, rice production for 2025/26 was raised 1.9 million tons to 544.7 million, primarily on India's Third Advanced Estimate raising production to a record 154.0 million tons. Global rice trade was projected at a record 63.0 million tons for 2026/27.
Soybean supply and price projections were unchanged for 2026/27, though 2025/26 crush increased on higher meal exports. Global soybean beginning stocks rose on stronger prior-year Argentine production (raised 2 million tons to 50 million), while 2026/27 global production declined 0.2 million tons due to reduced Russian harvested area. Global ending stocks for 2026/27 were raised 0.1 million tons to 124.9 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast at $11.40 per bushel.
Sugar production forecasts showed modest gains. U.S. beet sugar production increased 217,100 short tons raw value to 4.939 million, driven by higher national yields (31.94 tons/acre, up from 30.21 tons) despite flat harvested acreage. Florida cane sugar rose 36,800 short tons to 1.979 million following processors' reassessment of February freeze impacts and favorable spring conditions. U.S. sugar deliveries for human consumption rose 125,500 short tons to 12.385 million on stronger domestic demand. Mexico's sugar production for 2026/27 was projected at 5.283 million metric tons, a 1.0% increase, though constrained by elevated fertilizer costs and 2026 tax increases on sweetened beverages.
A critical supply-side risk emerged from Middle East conflict disruptions. Fertiglobe CEO Ahmed El-Hoshy warned that closure of the Persian Gulf Strait has blocked approximately 30% of global urea exports and spiked ammonia and urea fertilizer prices sharply due to supply loss and energy shocks. Nitrogen fertilizers are responsible for producing calories for roughly half of the world's 8 billion people. With farmers in the Southern Hemisphere currently in peak planting season and facing severely constrained access to credit or government support, the risk of depressed fertilizer usage is material. Missing critical planting windows could suppress crop yields for months ahead. Farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and India face disproportionate exposure given import dependency. The European Union announced €540 million ($625 million) in emergency financial support for farmers to offset fertilizer cost inflation. ING analysts characterized the unfolding situation as "a tragedy in slow motion," with months of supply lag-time creating acute downside risk to 2026/27 global production if geopolitical tensions persist.
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