Key Takeaways
- • Wheat prices elevated by geopolitical risk: Ukraine-Russia conflict renewed tensions in Black Sea shipping, restricting Russian exports through the Azov Sea and supporting wheat prices despite Texas harvest delays caused by excessive rain and low yield reports.
- • Soybean complex shows mixed weakness: China purchased 238,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, but soybeans and soybean meal declined on forecasts of Midwest rain and cooling temperatures; soybean oil traded higher on separate technical factors.
- • Corn open interest contracted sharply: Corn futures declined 31,963 contracts week-over-week (to 2,332,893 open interest), driven by Midwest rainfall relief and subdued export demand; unknown destinations purchased 105,000 tons of U.S. corn.
- • Rice production concerns tighten supply outlook: USDA reported sharply lower planted and harvested acreage, driving lower production estimates and tighter ending stocks despite moderate-to-poor demand for U.S. rice and ongoing Texas harvest pressure.
- • Palm oil exports surge 15% in July; Malaysian exports rise 9.2% in early August: Malaysia increased crude palm oil output 9.41% and total exports 14.5% month-over-month in July to 1.39 million metric tons; RBD palm olein and stearin prices gained 5.00 and 2.50 cents respectively.
- • Cotton strengthens on yield concerns despite crop stress: Cotton rallied as USDA data confirmed deteriorating conditions well behind year-ago levels; December support holds at 77.10 with resistance at 84.30.
- • Coffee deliverable stocks fall below 300,000 bags: Increased Brazilian supply availability pressured prices despite harvest delays; ICO average price settled at 285.75 cents/pound with mixed daily trends.
- • Sugar faces drought headwinds in Brazil and Europe: Hot, dry weather impacting sugarbeet production in Europe and cane regions in Brazil and India; Iran-Russia conflict paused negotiations support, reducing biofuel demand linkages.
- • Cocoa production forecast down 16% in Ghana for 2026-27: Ghana's crop regulator COCOBOD cited weather effects, natural fruit-bearing cycles, and disease; West African rains positive for next crop but Ivory Coast conditions deteriorating.
- • --
Summary
Wheat and Geopolitical Supply Disruption
Wheat futures closed slightly higher last week as renewed Ukraine-Russia hostilities disrupted Black Sea export channels, with Ukrainian bombing preventing Russian shipments through the Azov Sea. This supply-side support offset harvest challenges in Texas, where excessive rain interrupted crop collection and depressed yield reports. The U.S. wheat harvest stands over 86% complete, with spring wheat rated 55% good to excellent and Midwest conditions favorable, though European crops faced excessive heat stress. Technical support for September CBOT wheat holds at 626, 620, and 614, with resistance at 658, 670, and 686. Commitments of Traders data as of August 4 show wheat-SRW open interest at 567,126 contracts with non-commercial traders holding net long positions of 64,311 versus 99,894 short.
Soybean Complex: Demand Offset by Weather Expectations
Soybeans and soybean meal declined marginally despite Chinese demand—China purchased 238,000 tons of U.S. soybeans—as market participants anticipated beneficial Midwest rainfall. Soybean oil traded higher on separate momentum factors. Open interest contracted across the complex: soybeans declined 44,693 contracts to 1,194,700, soybean meal fell 15,860 to 659,602, and soybean oil dropped 25,452 to 713,493. Managed money positions dominate soybean oil at 420,233 long contracts (58.9% of open interest), signaling speculative positioning. September support levels rest at 1140 (soybeans), 308.00 (meal), and 6660 (oil), with cooler temperatures and wet weather expected in northern regions offsetting hot, dry southern conditions.
Corn: Declining Open Interest Signals Liquidation
Corn futures traded near unchanged amid mixed sentiment, with open interest shrinking 31,963 contracts to 2,332,893 as Midwest rain relief reduced weather concerns and subdued export demand persisted. Unknown destinations purchased 105,000 tons of U.S. corn, indicating modest international interest. Dough development progressed ahead of normal schedule, and crop conditions remain below year-ago levels. Commercial traders hold net short positions of 175,799 contracts against non-commercial longs of 232,321. September support holds at 435, 427, and 421, with resistance at 472, 478, and 484.
Rice: Tightening Supply on Acreage Reduction
Rice prices closed higher despite active Texas harvest, supported by USDA reports of sharply lower planted and harvested acreage, driving significantly reduced production estimates and tighter ending stocks. Stronger Asian price signals and concerns over Brazil's production—linked to El Niño weather patterns and reported short supplies—provided additional upside support. Demand remains moderate to poor for U.S. rice. September technical support sits at 1340, 1393, and 1292, with resistance at 1444, 1456, and 1468.
Palm Oil: Strong Export Growth Amid Production Gains
Malaysian palm oil exports surged 15% month-over-month in July to 1.39 million metric tons, driven by 9.41% growth in crude palm oil output to 1,792,979 metric tons. Early August data (August 1-10) showed exports up 9.2% on month to 432,742 metric tons, with RBD palm olein declining to 89,140 tons and crude palm oil rising to 79,501 tons. Cash market pricing for refined, bleached, deodorized palm oil strengthened across all delivery months: August offer rose 5.00 cents to 1147.50 USD/metric ton, while October/November/December gained 7.50 cents to 1197.50. RBD palm stearin gained 2.50 cents to 1112.50 (August). Producer/merchant long positions dominate Malaysian crude palm oil futures at 40,176 of 45,688 total open interest contracts.
Cotton: Rally on Yield Deterioration
Cotton futures advanced on renewed concerns over lower yields and ongoing crop stress, supported by solid USDA demand signals. Conditions remain well behind year-ago levels with continued deterioration reported last week; the crop is in the squaring and setting bolls phase at average progress. Scattered-to-isolated showers forecast across Delta and Southeast regions with warm-to-hot temperatures ahead. Non-commercial traders hold net long positions of 74,381 contracts (109,640 long versus 35,259 short) on December ICE futures. Support established at 77.10, 75.50, and 74.50 December, with resistance at 84.30, 86.20, and 88.10.
Coffee: Brazilian Supply Pressure on Deliverable Stocks
New York and London coffee futures closed higher last week despite increased Brazilian availability as harvest delays gradually abate. Deliverable stocks have fallen below 300,000 bags, well below year-ago levels, supporting longer-term price structure. The ICO average price settled at 285.75 cents/pound. Indonesia is approximately 80% harvested under good conditions, while Asian production generally remains sound. Central America faces dryness while Mexico maintains favorable conditions. Non-commercial traders show net long exposure of 10,402 contracts (28,953 long versus 18,551 short) on September ICE Coffee C futures. September support holds at 307.00,
Wheat futures closed slightly higher last week as renewed Ukraine-Russia hostilities disrupted Black Sea export channels, with Ukrainian bombing preventing Russian shipments through the Azov Sea. This supply-side support offset harvest challenges in Texas, where excessive rain interrupted crop collection and depressed yield reports. The U.S. wheat harvest stands over 86% complete, with spring wheat rated 55% good to excellent and Midwest conditions favorable, though European crops faced excessive heat stress. Technical support for September CBOT wheat holds at 626, 620, and 614, with resistance at 658, 670, and 686. Commitments of Traders data as of August 4 show wheat-SRW open interest at 567,126 contracts with non-commercial traders holding net long positions of 64,311 versus 99,894 short.
Soybean Complex: Demand Offset by Weather Expectations
Soybeans and soybean meal declined marginally despite Chinese demand—China purchased 238,000 tons of U.S. soybeans—as market participants anticipated beneficial Midwest rainfall. Soybean oil traded higher on separate momentum factors. Open interest contracted across the complex: soybeans declined 44,693 contracts to 1,194,700, soybean meal fell 15,860 to 659,602, and soybean oil dropped 25,452 to 713,493. Managed money positions dominate soybean oil at 420,233 long contracts (58.9% of open interest), signaling speculative positioning. September support levels rest at 1140 (soybeans), 308.00 (meal), and 6660 (oil), with cooler temperatures and wet weather expected in northern regions offsetting hot, dry southern conditions.
Corn: Declining Open Interest Signals Liquidation
Corn futures traded near unchanged amid mixed sentiment, with open interest shrinking 31,963 contracts to 2,332,893 as Midwest rain relief reduced weather concerns and subdued export demand persisted. Unknown destinations purchased 105,000 tons of U.S. corn, indicating modest international interest. Dough development progressed ahead of normal schedule, and crop conditions remain below year-ago levels. Commercial traders hold net short positions of 175,799 contracts against non-commercial longs of 232,321. September support holds at 435, 427, and 421, with resistance at 472, 478, and 484.
Rice: Tightening Supply on Acreage Reduction
Rice prices closed higher despite active Texas harvest, supported by USDA reports of sharply lower planted and harvested acreage, driving significantly reduced production estimates and tighter ending stocks. Stronger Asian price signals and concerns over Brazil's production—linked to El Niño weather patterns and reported short supplies—provided additional upside support. Demand remains moderate to poor for U.S. rice. September technical support sits at 1340, 1393, and 1292, with resistance at 1444, 1456, and 1468.
Palm Oil: Strong Export Growth Amid Production Gains
Malaysian palm oil exports surged 15% month-over-month in July to 1.39 million metric tons, driven by 9.41% growth in crude palm oil output to 1,792,979 metric tons. Early August data (August 1-10) showed exports up 9.2% on month to 432,742 metric tons, with RBD palm olein declining to 89,140 tons and crude palm oil rising to 79,501 tons. Cash market pricing for refined, bleached, deodorized palm oil strengthened across all delivery months: August offer rose 5.00 cents to 1147.50 USD/metric ton, while October/November/December gained 7.50 cents to 1197.50. RBD palm stearin gained 2.50 cents to 1112.50 (August). Producer/merchant long positions dominate Malaysian crude palm oil futures at 40,176 of 45,688 total open interest contracts.
Cotton: Rally on Yield Deterioration
Cotton futures advanced on renewed concerns over lower yields and ongoing crop stress, supported by solid USDA demand signals. Conditions remain well behind year-ago levels with continued deterioration reported last week; the crop is in the squaring and setting bolls phase at average progress. Scattered-to-isolated showers forecast across Delta and Southeast regions with warm-to-hot temperatures ahead. Non-commercial traders hold net long positions of 74,381 contracts (109,640 long versus 35,259 short) on December ICE futures. Support established at 77.10, 75.50, and 74.50 December, with resistance at 84.30, 86.20, and 88.10.
Coffee: Brazilian Supply Pressure on Deliverable Stocks
New York and London coffee futures closed higher last week despite increased Brazilian availability as harvest delays gradually abate. Deliverable stocks have fallen below 300,000 bags, well below year-ago levels, supporting longer-term price structure. The ICO average price settled at 285.75 cents/pound. Indonesia is approximately 80% harvested under good conditions, while Asian production generally remains sound. Central America faces dryness while Mexico maintains favorable conditions. Non-commercial traders show net long exposure of 10,402 contracts (28,953 long versus 18,551 short) on September ICE Coffee C futures. September support holds at 307.00,
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