Key Takeaways
- • U.S. corn ending stocks for 2026-27 revised down to 1.653 billion bushels (from 1.790 billion in July estimates), reflecting USDA's adjustment of yield to 180.7 bu/acre despite raising harvested area to 88.6 million acres; production now pegged at 16.013 billion bushels with export demand increased to 3.275 billion bushels.
- • Soybean ending stocks estimated at 320 million bushels for 2026-27, essentially flat year-over-year; harvested area increased to 85.8 million acres with yield at 52.7 bu/acre; crush demand raised 30 million bushels to 2.780 billion bushels amid reports of increased Chinese demand.
- • Wheat ending stocks contracted sharply to 717 million bushels for 2026-27 (down from 920 million in 2025-26), with production revised slightly down to 1.531 billion bushels; Black Sea supply disruptions from Ukraine-Russia escalation and excessive rainfall in Texas are constraining global wheat availability.
- • Cotton production trimmed to 13.61 million bales (from 13.7 million previously) with demand unchanged at 13.90 million bales; ending stocks estimated at 3.0 million bales; export sales activity showed net increase of 905 thousand running bales for the week ended August 6.
- • Global soybean exports projected at 190.41 million metric tons for 2026-27, up from 187.19 million in 2025-26, with Brazil accounting for 118 million metric tons; world corn stocks estimated at 274.7 million metric tons; palm oil prices strengthened with refined, bleached and deodorized product quoted at $1,197.50/mt for October-December delivery.
Summary
The USDA released its August 2026 crop supply and demand estimates on August 12, signaling modest tightening in major grain markets amid weather disruptions and geopolitical supply constraints. Corn production was set at 16.013 billion bushels, marginally above July projections but with a yield reduction to 180.7 bu/acre reflecting adverse weather in portions of the Midwest. Ending stocks for the 2026-27 season declined to 1.653 billion bushels, down from the prior month's 1.790 billion, as export demand was raised to 3.275 billion bushels. Weekly export sales data showed net commitments of 410.7 thousand metric tons for the week ended August 6, indicating moderate export interest relative to analyst expectations.
Soybean fundamentals remained relatively stable with the USDA maintaining ending stocks at 320 million bushels for 2026-27, consistent with prior guidance. Harvested area expanded to 85.8 million acres from 84.4 million previously, though yield was modestly reduced to 52.7 bu/acre. Notably, the USDA increased crush demand by 30 million bushels to 2.780 billion bushels, reflecting strengthening Chinese demand signals. Global soybean exports were projected at 190.41 million metric tons, with Brazil contributing 118 million metric tons of the total supply. Weekly export sales for soybeans totaled 75.1 thousand metric tons net for the week, with total commitments reaching 41.789 million metric tons.
Wheat markets faced the most significant adjustment, with ending stocks compressed to 717 million bushels for 2026-27—a substantial decline from 920 million in 2025-26. The USDA trimmed production slightly to 1.531 billion bushels, reflecting production challenges. Price pressures were amplified by renewed military escalations between Ukraine and Russia, with overnight drone attacks on Russian ports disrupting Black Sea shipping corridors through the Azov Sea. Additionally, excessive rainfall interrupted harvest activities in Texas, contributing to reduced yield reports. Winter wheat production was estimated at 990 million bushels from a total of 1.531 billion bushels. Weekly wheat export sales totaled 255.9 thousand metric tons with total commitments of 7.473 million metric tons.
Cotton production was reduced to 13.61 million bales from 13.7 million previously, with demand remaining unchanged at 13.90 million bales, resulting in ending stocks of 3.0 million bales. Crop conditions remain below year-ago levels, with bolls beginning to open. Upland cotton export sales activity surged with net new sales of 905 thousand running bales for August 1-6, adding to 778.9 thousand running bales of undelivered sales from the prior marketing year.
Rice ending stocks increased to 36.0 million cwt for 2026-27 (from 53.8 in 2025-26) despite higher production and demand estimates. Long grain ending stocks rose to 20.3 million cwt from 17.7 million previously, with production estimated at 106.7 million cwt. Malaysian palm oil prices strengthened, with refined, bleached and deodorized product offered at $1,197.50 per metric ton for October-November-December delivery, up $7.50 from prior quotes, reflecting sustained demand amid tight global vegetable oil supplies.
Soybean fundamentals remained relatively stable with the USDA maintaining ending stocks at 320 million bushels for 2026-27, consistent with prior guidance. Harvested area expanded to 85.8 million acres from 84.4 million previously, though yield was modestly reduced to 52.7 bu/acre. Notably, the USDA increased crush demand by 30 million bushels to 2.780 billion bushels, reflecting strengthening Chinese demand signals. Global soybean exports were projected at 190.41 million metric tons, with Brazil contributing 118 million metric tons of the total supply. Weekly export sales for soybeans totaled 75.1 thousand metric tons net for the week, with total commitments reaching 41.789 million metric tons.
Wheat markets faced the most significant adjustment, with ending stocks compressed to 717 million bushels for 2026-27—a substantial decline from 920 million in 2025-26. The USDA trimmed production slightly to 1.531 billion bushels, reflecting production challenges. Price pressures were amplified by renewed military escalations between Ukraine and Russia, with overnight drone attacks on Russian ports disrupting Black Sea shipping corridors through the Azov Sea. Additionally, excessive rainfall interrupted harvest activities in Texas, contributing to reduced yield reports. Winter wheat production was estimated at 990 million bushels from a total of 1.531 billion bushels. Weekly wheat export sales totaled 255.9 thousand metric tons with total commitments of 7.473 million metric tons.
Cotton production was reduced to 13.61 million bales from 13.7 million previously, with demand remaining unchanged at 13.90 million bales, resulting in ending stocks of 3.0 million bales. Crop conditions remain below year-ago levels, with bolls beginning to open. Upland cotton export sales activity surged with net new sales of 905 thousand running bales for August 1-6, adding to 778.9 thousand running bales of undelivered sales from the prior marketing year.
Rice ending stocks increased to 36.0 million cwt for 2026-27 (from 53.8 in 2025-26) despite higher production and demand estimates. Long grain ending stocks rose to 20.3 million cwt from 17.7 million previously, with production estimated at 106.7 million cwt. Malaysian palm oil prices strengthened, with refined, bleached and deodorized product offered at $1,197.50 per metric ton for October-November-December delivery, up $7.50 from prior quotes, reflecting sustained demand amid tight global vegetable oil supplies.
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