Key Takeaways
- • U.S. corn production cut to 15.8 billion bushels (down from prior estimate), with ending stocks revised lower to 1.567 billion bushels from 1.653 billion; USDA reduced both harvested area and yields, signaling weather stress in Europe and Asia alongside ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict limiting supply channels.
- • Canadian 2026-27 grain/oilseed production shows mixed signals: wheat production down 10.9% year-over-year to 36.12 million metric tonnes; corn production up 11.3% to 16.55 million tonnes; soybeans up 7.8% to 7.46 million tonnes, with Statistics Canada citing weather variability and winterkill impacts.
- • Brazil's 2026/27 crop forecasts (via CONAB): soybeans at 181.64 million tonnes, corn at 148 million tonnes, and cotton lint at 4.2 million tonnes; 2027 protein production projected at 11.4 million tonnes beef, 16.7 million tonnes chicken, and 6.15 million tonnes pork.
- • Malaysia palm oil exports collapsed 26% month-over-month to 496,160 metric tonnes (Sept. 1-15 period); RBD palm stearin exports fell sharply from 54,219 to 31,616 tonnes, while crude palm oil offers rose to 4,630 ringgit/tonne, signaling supply tightness and price support.
- • U.S. grain export inspections for week ending Sept. 10: corn at 1.525 million metric tonnes (year-to-date 2.174 million vs. 2.184 million prior year); wheat at 456,720 tonnes (year-to-date 5.676 million vs. 7.859 million prior year), reflecting geopolitical export headwinds and reduced global demand.
- • Soybean market supported by anticipated Chinese demand ahead of U.S.-China summit; USDA raised 2026 production to 4.535 billion bushels with ending stocks tightened to 310 million bushels from 320 million, though El Niño concerns loom over South American production.
Summary
Global grain and oilseed markets face mounting pressure from weather stress, geopolitical disruption, and shifting production forecasts as of mid-September 2026. The USDA's latest assessments reveal a tightening supply environment, particularly for corn and wheat, with production cuts reflecting adverse conditions spanning North America, Europe, and Asia.
U.S. corn production has been downwardly revised to 15.8 billion bushels, with harvested area and yields both reduced. Ending stocks now stand at 1.567 billion bushels, down from 1.653 billion the previous month, indicating a shrinking buffer in a tight-supply year. Feed demand was cut to 5.950 billion bushels and total demand to 16.180 billion bushels. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to restrict shipping from both nations, compounding supply concerns. Western and southern Midwest conditions remain stressful due to hot, dry weather, though forecasts call for moderating conditions and cooler temperatures in the coming week. Corn harvest is progressing at 6% completion, slightly above normal pace.
Canadian grain and oilseed production for 2026-27, according to Statistics Canada, presents a mixed picture. Wheat production is estimated at 36.12 million metric tonnes, down 10.9% from the prior year's 40.562 million tonnes, reflecting winterkill in fall rye and winter wheat categories. Corn production, by contrast, rose 11.3% to 16.549 million tonnes from 14.867 million tonnes, benefiting from improved yields at 10,613 kg/hectare. Soybeans increased 7.8% to 7.456 million tonnes, with average yields reaching 3,118 kg/hectare across 2.391 million hectares. Barley production remained flat at 9.713 million tonnes.
Brazil's agricultural forecasts via CONAB demonstrate robust grain and protein production expectations. Soybeans are projected at 181.64 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season, corn at 148 million tonnes, and cotton lint at 4.2 million tonnes. Protein projections for 2027 include 11.4 million tonnes of beef, 16.7 million tonnes of chicken meat, and 6.15 million tonnes of pork. However, El Niño weather patterns pose risks to South American soybean production, warranting investor caution on supply assumptions.
Soybean futures traded higher in anticipation of increased Chinese demand ahead of planned U.S.-China summit meetings. The USDA raised 2026 production estimates to 4.535 billion bushels with increased harvested area and yields. Exports were raised and ending stocks tightened to 310 million bushels from 320 million, signaling reduced availability. U.S. soybean crush activity for August totaled 205.456 million bushels (per NOPA), with soybean oil stocks at 1.201 billion pounds.
U.S. grain export inspections for the week ending September 10 reveal export momentum challenges. Corn inspections totaled 1.525 million metric tonnes, with year-to-date exports at 2.174 million tonnes compared to 2.184 million tonnes in the prior year—essentially flat despite tighter supplies. Wheat inspections fell to 456,720 tonnes, with year-to-date shipments at 5.676 million tonnes versus 7.859 million tonnes the previous year, representing a 27.8% decline reflecting both reduced global demand and geopolitical export constraints. Soybean inspections for the week were 672,759 tonnes, with year-to-date exports at 914,826 tonnes versus 1.087 million tonnes prior year, down 15.8%.
Palm oil markets face acute supply pressure. Malaysian palm oil exports during September 1-15 dropped 26% month-over-month to 496,160 metric tonnes, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia. RBD palm stearin exports contracted sharply from 54,219 to 31,616 tonnes, while crude palm oil offers firmed to 4,630 ringgit per tonne, up 10 ringgit on the week. These supply constraints are supporting prices across the forward curve, with refined, bleached, and deodorized palm oil for Oct/Nov/Dec contracts quoted at $1,217.50/tonne.
Wheat markets remain volatile amid Ukraine-Russia war developments. U.S. Winter Wheat planting stands at 12% completion, while Spring Wheat harvest is nearly complete. The USDA maintained its wheat supply and demand estimates unchanged but raised the average farm price by 20 cents to reflect current market levels. Ukrainian President statements regarding potential negotiations on grain export resumption have been met with Russian resistance, leaving export flows severely constrained. Technical support levels in Chicago December wheat are at 706, 685, and 677 cents/bushel.
Cattle-on-feed expectations point to a modestly higher inventory environment. Wall Street Journal analyst consensus for September cattle-on-feed shows average estimates of 101.8% of year-earlier levels (range: 101.4–102.3%), with August placements at 97.3% of prior year and August marketings at 96.2%, indicating slower cattle flow despite higher feedyard populations.
Rice markets declined following USDA reports showing slight harvested-area decreases offset by yield improvements, resulting in minimal net production changes. Long-grain rice ending stocks increased to 21.4 million cwt from 20.3 million cwt. U.S. rice harvest reached 50% completion
U.S. corn production has been downwardly revised to 15.8 billion bushels, with harvested area and yields both reduced. Ending stocks now stand at 1.567 billion bushels, down from 1.653 billion the previous month, indicating a shrinking buffer in a tight-supply year. Feed demand was cut to 5.950 billion bushels and total demand to 16.180 billion bushels. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to restrict shipping from both nations, compounding supply concerns. Western and southern Midwest conditions remain stressful due to hot, dry weather, though forecasts call for moderating conditions and cooler temperatures in the coming week. Corn harvest is progressing at 6% completion, slightly above normal pace.
Canadian grain and oilseed production for 2026-27, according to Statistics Canada, presents a mixed picture. Wheat production is estimated at 36.12 million metric tonnes, down 10.9% from the prior year's 40.562 million tonnes, reflecting winterkill in fall rye and winter wheat categories. Corn production, by contrast, rose 11.3% to 16.549 million tonnes from 14.867 million tonnes, benefiting from improved yields at 10,613 kg/hectare. Soybeans increased 7.8% to 7.456 million tonnes, with average yields reaching 3,118 kg/hectare across 2.391 million hectares. Barley production remained flat at 9.713 million tonnes.
Brazil's agricultural forecasts via CONAB demonstrate robust grain and protein production expectations. Soybeans are projected at 181.64 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season, corn at 148 million tonnes, and cotton lint at 4.2 million tonnes. Protein projections for 2027 include 11.4 million tonnes of beef, 16.7 million tonnes of chicken meat, and 6.15 million tonnes of pork. However, El Niño weather patterns pose risks to South American soybean production, warranting investor caution on supply assumptions.
Soybean futures traded higher in anticipation of increased Chinese demand ahead of planned U.S.-China summit meetings. The USDA raised 2026 production estimates to 4.535 billion bushels with increased harvested area and yields. Exports were raised and ending stocks tightened to 310 million bushels from 320 million, signaling reduced availability. U.S. soybean crush activity for August totaled 205.456 million bushels (per NOPA), with soybean oil stocks at 1.201 billion pounds.
U.S. grain export inspections for the week ending September 10 reveal export momentum challenges. Corn inspections totaled 1.525 million metric tonnes, with year-to-date exports at 2.174 million tonnes compared to 2.184 million tonnes in the prior year—essentially flat despite tighter supplies. Wheat inspections fell to 456,720 tonnes, with year-to-date shipments at 5.676 million tonnes versus 7.859 million tonnes the previous year, representing a 27.8% decline reflecting both reduced global demand and geopolitical export constraints. Soybean inspections for the week were 672,759 tonnes, with year-to-date exports at 914,826 tonnes versus 1.087 million tonnes prior year, down 15.8%.
Palm oil markets face acute supply pressure. Malaysian palm oil exports during September 1-15 dropped 26% month-over-month to 496,160 metric tonnes, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia. RBD palm stearin exports contracted sharply from 54,219 to 31,616 tonnes, while crude palm oil offers firmed to 4,630 ringgit per tonne, up 10 ringgit on the week. These supply constraints are supporting prices across the forward curve, with refined, bleached, and deodorized palm oil for Oct/Nov/Dec contracts quoted at $1,217.50/tonne.
Wheat markets remain volatile amid Ukraine-Russia war developments. U.S. Winter Wheat planting stands at 12% completion, while Spring Wheat harvest is nearly complete. The USDA maintained its wheat supply and demand estimates unchanged but raised the average farm price by 20 cents to reflect current market levels. Ukrainian President statements regarding potential negotiations on grain export resumption have been met with Russian resistance, leaving export flows severely constrained. Technical support levels in Chicago December wheat are at 706, 685, and 677 cents/bushel.
Cattle-on-feed expectations point to a modestly higher inventory environment. Wall Street Journal analyst consensus for September cattle-on-feed shows average estimates of 101.8% of year-earlier levels (range: 101.4–102.3%), with August placements at 97.3% of prior year and August marketings at 96.2%, indicating slower cattle flow despite higher feedyard populations.
Rice markets declined following USDA reports showing slight harvested-area decreases offset by yield improvements, resulting in minimal net production changes. Long-grain rice ending stocks increased to 21.4 million cwt from 20.3 million cwt. U.S. rice harvest reached 50% completion
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