Key Takeaways
- • Corn futures posted double-digit gains, with September contracts up 16½ cents and December up 19½ cents, driven by warmer-than-normal U.S. temperatures approaching the critical pollination period and increased Chinese buying activity.
- • USDA supply revisions tightened the market, reducing U.S. corn stocks for 2025/26 by 125 million bushels to 2.02 billion bushels, with new crop carryout down 170 million bushels to 1.790 billion bushels, signaling tighter supply dynamics.
- • Wheat complex rallied across all varieties, with soft red winter wheat September futures up 40½ cents, Kansas City wheat up 37¾ cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat up 33¾ cents, supported by reduced USDA production estimates and Russian export constraints from the Sea of Azov.
- • Soybeans extended strength with China as active buyer, August contracts up 55½ cents and November up 43 cents, with China purchasing 872,000 metric tons (736,000 MT for 2026/27) and old crop carryout trimmed by 10 million bushels to 330 million bushels.
- • Livestock markets diverged sharply, with live cattle futures falling $4.025 (down $7-8 in cash trade) but lean hogs gaining 25 cents on stronger cutout values led by belly prices up $22.04, signaling divergent demand and supply pressures in the protein complex.
Summary
Agricultural futures markets rallied sharply during the week of July 13, 2026, as warmer-than-normal U.S. forecasts and tighter supply fundamentals drove broad-based commodity strength. Temperature conditions heading into the critical corn pollination period, combined with increased Chinese buying interest and a more constructive USDA outlook, propelled grain complex gains into double-digit territory across corn, wheat, and soybeans.
Corn led the advance with September futures closing 16½ cents higher and December contracts up 19½ cents on the week. USDA supply-and-demand revisions released June 30 provided fundamental support, reducing U.S. corn stocks for 2025/26 by 125 million bushels to 2.02 billion bushels, with new crop carryout falling 170 million bushels below prior estimates to 1.790 billion bushels. Crop progress remained solid, with 16% of the U.S. corn crop silking by July 5 and condition ratings holding steady at 67% good/excellent on the Brugler500 index at 371. Export activity remained robust, with old crop sales reaching 565,810 metric tons and new crop sales at 401,667 MT in the week ending July 2. Managed money positioning shifted materially bullish, flipping to a net long of 12,659 contracts—a 58,868-contract move to the long side during the week. Ethanol production trimmed 24,000 barrels per day to 1.093 million bpd, while stocks declined 762,000 barrels to 23.928 million barrels.
The wheat complex extended gains across all varieties, with soft red winter wheat September futures rallying 40½ cents, Kansas City wheat advancing 37¾ cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat up 33¾ cents. USDA Crop Production data released Friday showed total wheat production down 7 million bushels to 1.536 billion bushels, with winter wheat production cut by 40 million bushels to 990 million bushels, though spring wheat came in larger than expected at 475 million bushels. U.S. carryout fell 22 million bushels to 722 million bushels in the WASDE update. Geopolitical factors added support Friday, as Russia limited grain flows from the Sea of Azov following recent Ukrainian strikes. Winter wheat harvest progress reached 59% by the previous Sunday with condition ratings unchanged at 26% good/excellent (Brugler500 index: 263). Spring wheat was 54% headed with conditions declining 2% to 57% good/excellent (Brugler500 index: 354, down 1 point week-over-week). Managed money continued adding to net short positioning in CBT wheat, increasing by 6,705 contracts to 62,325 contracts as of July 7, while speculative traders in KC wheat added 4,845 contracts to their net long.
Soybeans opened and closed the week with strength, with August contracts up 55½ cents and November up 43 cents. Soybean meal and oil also posted significant gains, with August meal up $14.90 and August bean oil posting a 369-point gain. China emerged as an active buyer this week, purchasing 872,000 metric tons (including 736,000 MT for 2026/27), while unknown buyers added another 120,000 MT. USDA data on Friday surprised bullish traders, with old crop carryout trimmed by 10 million bushels to 330 million bushels, though new crop carryout held steady despite production being raised 40 million bushels. Crop progress showed 34% of the U.S. soybean crop blooming by July 5 with 9% setting pods. Condition ratings declined 1% to 64% good/excellent (Brugler500 index: 365). Export bookings totaled 54,349 MT for old crop in the week ending July 2, with new crop business at 408,250 MT. Speculative funds added back 37,479 contracts to reach a net long of 67,679 contracts as of July 7.
Livestock markets delivered mixed signals, with cattle and hogs moving in opposite directions. Live cattle August futures fell $4.025 for the week as cash trade pulled back $7–$8 to $248 per cwt. Feeder cattle declined $6.025 with the CME Feeder Cattle Index down 83 cents week-over-week to $370.42. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed; the Choice/Select spread narrowed to $14.35 with Choice boxes down $4.39/cwt to $382.68 and Select up 90 cents to $368.33. Weekly beef production fell 5.1% year-over-year to 469.1 million pounds, with year-to-date production down 5.9% on an 8.5% decline in slaughter. Speculative positioning in live cattle declined by 5,892 contracts to a net long of 113,321 contracts.
In contrast, lean hogs showed recovery, with August contracts up 25 cents on the week and the CME Lean Hog Index rising 87 cents to $92.35 as of July 8. USDA Pork Carcass Cutout strengthened $2.53 since Thursday to $101.34/cwt, led by belly prices up $22.04, with loin and ham also reporting gains. Weekly pork production climbed 3.5% year-over-year to 511.4 million pounds, and year-to-date production is up 0.8% with slaughter down only 0.3%. Cotton futures rallied aggressively with December contracts up 442 points, supported by USDA's WASDE raising new crop stocks by 400,000 bales to 4.1 million on identical production increases to 13.7 million bales. Crop progress showed 49% of cotton squared with 14% setting bolls, though condition ratings declined 2 percentage points to 46% good/excellent (Brugler500 index: 332, down 3 points). The Adjusted World Price closed Thursday at 63.88 cents/lb, up 151 points.
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Corn led the advance with September futures closing 16½ cents higher and December contracts up 19½ cents on the week. USDA supply-and-demand revisions released June 30 provided fundamental support, reducing U.S. corn stocks for 2025/26 by 125 million bushels to 2.02 billion bushels, with new crop carryout falling 170 million bushels below prior estimates to 1.790 billion bushels. Crop progress remained solid, with 16% of the U.S. corn crop silking by July 5 and condition ratings holding steady at 67% good/excellent on the Brugler500 index at 371. Export activity remained robust, with old crop sales reaching 565,810 metric tons and new crop sales at 401,667 MT in the week ending July 2. Managed money positioning shifted materially bullish, flipping to a net long of 12,659 contracts—a 58,868-contract move to the long side during the week. Ethanol production trimmed 24,000 barrels per day to 1.093 million bpd, while stocks declined 762,000 barrels to 23.928 million barrels.
The wheat complex extended gains across all varieties, with soft red winter wheat September futures rallying 40½ cents, Kansas City wheat advancing 37¾ cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat up 33¾ cents. USDA Crop Production data released Friday showed total wheat production down 7 million bushels to 1.536 billion bushels, with winter wheat production cut by 40 million bushels to 990 million bushels, though spring wheat came in larger than expected at 475 million bushels. U.S. carryout fell 22 million bushels to 722 million bushels in the WASDE update. Geopolitical factors added support Friday, as Russia limited grain flows from the Sea of Azov following recent Ukrainian strikes. Winter wheat harvest progress reached 59% by the previous Sunday with condition ratings unchanged at 26% good/excellent (Brugler500 index: 263). Spring wheat was 54% headed with conditions declining 2% to 57% good/excellent (Brugler500 index: 354, down 1 point week-over-week). Managed money continued adding to net short positioning in CBT wheat, increasing by 6,705 contracts to 62,325 contracts as of July 7, while speculative traders in KC wheat added 4,845 contracts to their net long.
Soybeans opened and closed the week with strength, with August contracts up 55½ cents and November up 43 cents. Soybean meal and oil also posted significant gains, with August meal up $14.90 and August bean oil posting a 369-point gain. China emerged as an active buyer this week, purchasing 872,000 metric tons (including 736,000 MT for 2026/27), while unknown buyers added another 120,000 MT. USDA data on Friday surprised bullish traders, with old crop carryout trimmed by 10 million bushels to 330 million bushels, though new crop carryout held steady despite production being raised 40 million bushels. Crop progress showed 34% of the U.S. soybean crop blooming by July 5 with 9% setting pods. Condition ratings declined 1% to 64% good/excellent (Brugler500 index: 365). Export bookings totaled 54,349 MT for old crop in the week ending July 2, with new crop business at 408,250 MT. Speculative funds added back 37,479 contracts to reach a net long of 67,679 contracts as of July 7.
Livestock markets delivered mixed signals, with cattle and hogs moving in opposite directions. Live cattle August futures fell $4.025 for the week as cash trade pulled back $7–$8 to $248 per cwt. Feeder cattle declined $6.025 with the CME Feeder Cattle Index down 83 cents week-over-week to $370.42. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed; the Choice/Select spread narrowed to $14.35 with Choice boxes down $4.39/cwt to $382.68 and Select up 90 cents to $368.33. Weekly beef production fell 5.1% year-over-year to 469.1 million pounds, with year-to-date production down 5.9% on an 8.5% decline in slaughter. Speculative positioning in live cattle declined by 5,892 contracts to a net long of 113,321 contracts.
In contrast, lean hogs showed recovery, with August contracts up 25 cents on the week and the CME Lean Hog Index rising 87 cents to $92.35 as of July 8. USDA Pork Carcass Cutout strengthened $2.53 since Thursday to $101.34/cwt, led by belly prices up $22.04, with loin and ham also reporting gains. Weekly pork production climbed 3.5% year-over-year to 511.4 million pounds, and year-to-date production is up 0.8% with slaughter down only 0.3%. Cotton futures rallied aggressively with December contracts up 442 points, supported by USDA's WASDE raising new crop stocks by 400,000 bales to 4.1 million on identical production increases to 13.7 million bales. Crop progress showed 49% of cotton squared with 14% setting bolls, though condition ratings declined 2 percentage points to 46% good/excellent (Brugler500 index: 332, down 3 points). The Adjusted World Price closed Thursday at 63.88 cents/lb, up 151 points.
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