Key Takeaways
- • Fidelity Portfolio Manager Roberto Croce advocates for multi-signal managed futures strategies over traditional single-driver trend-following approaches to better identify and adapt to market direction changes in volatile environments.
- • The actively managed Fidelity Managed Futures ETF (FFUT), launched in June 2025, employs long and short positions across equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity futures to capture price trends while providing portfolio diversification during market stress periods.
- • Traditional trend-following strategies face real-time interpretation challenges when markets stall, reverse abruptly, or pivot direction—dynamics observed in 2026 market movements—which multi-signal approaches may mitigate.
- • Croce argues that single-driver trend-following strategies, while effective during sustained rallies or prolonged drawdowns, involve trade-offs that a diversified input signal methodology can help address.
- • The strategy positioning aims to enhance portfolio diversification and provide exposure to inflation-driven market trends through systematic managed futures allocation.
Summary
Roberto Croce, portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments and head of liquid alternatives, contends that traditional trend-following managed futures strategies face material limitations in contemporary market conditions and proposes a more sophisticated alternative approach. According to Croce, many established managed futures strategies rely on a single return driver—trend-following—to profit from persistently directional markets. While this methodology has proven effective during extended rallies or prolonged drawdowns, it struggles when market dynamics shift abruptly, stall, or reverse direction, particularly as observed in 2026 market movements.
Croce's thesis centers on incorporating multiple input signals into a managed futures framework to improve real-time trend evaluation and identification. Rather than relying solely on directional momentum, a multi-signal approach enables portfolio managers to assess whether emerging trends are strengthening, weakening, or pivoting, thereby adapting more dynamically to market inflection points. This methodology addresses a critical vulnerability in traditional trend-following: the inability to interpret trend persistence in real time when market behavior becomes unpredictable.
The Fidelity Managed Futures ETF (FFUT), which Croce manages, exemplifies this approach. Launched in June 2025, the actively managed fund constructs exposure through long and short positions in futures contracts spanning equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities. The strategy explicitly targets two objectives: portfolio diversification and capital preservation during prolonged periods of market stress. By systematically capturing price trends across multiple asset classes and market directions, the fund aims to deliver returns that are less correlated with traditional equity and bond allocations, while simultaneously providing inflation-linked exposure as markets respond to macroeconomic pressures.
The strategic rationale reflects Croce's view that single-signal strategies inherently involve trade-offs between responsiveness and stability. Multi-signal managed futures approaches, by contrast, improve investor outcomes by providing more granular insight into market regime changes, enabling faster adaptation to shifts in trend strength and direction. In an environment characterized by rapid policy shifts, geopolitical volatility, and structural inflation pressures—conditions evident in 2026—this enhanced adaptability carries material implications for portfolio construction across institutional and alternative investment mandates.
Croce's thesis centers on incorporating multiple input signals into a managed futures framework to improve real-time trend evaluation and identification. Rather than relying solely on directional momentum, a multi-signal approach enables portfolio managers to assess whether emerging trends are strengthening, weakening, or pivoting, thereby adapting more dynamically to market inflection points. This methodology addresses a critical vulnerability in traditional trend-following: the inability to interpret trend persistence in real time when market behavior becomes unpredictable.
The Fidelity Managed Futures ETF (FFUT), which Croce manages, exemplifies this approach. Launched in June 2025, the actively managed fund constructs exposure through long and short positions in futures contracts spanning equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities. The strategy explicitly targets two objectives: portfolio diversification and capital preservation during prolonged periods of market stress. By systematically capturing price trends across multiple asset classes and market directions, the fund aims to deliver returns that are less correlated with traditional equity and bond allocations, while simultaneously providing inflation-linked exposure as markets respond to macroeconomic pressures.
The strategic rationale reflects Croce's view that single-signal strategies inherently involve trade-offs between responsiveness and stability. Multi-signal managed futures approaches, by contrast, improve investor outcomes by providing more granular insight into market regime changes, enabling faster adaptation to shifts in trend strength and direction. In an environment characterized by rapid policy shifts, geopolitical volatility, and structural inflation pressures—conditions evident in 2026—this enhanced adaptability carries material implications for portfolio construction across institutional and alternative investment mandates.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.