Key Takeaways
- • Trump-Xi meeting disappointment triggered commodity selloff: Lack of concrete announcements or trade progress details from the two-day presidential meeting sparked a "buy the rumor/collapse in the non-news" reaction, with corn July futures down 15.5 cents and soybeans July down 31 cents by week's end.
- • Corn pressured despite favorable planting pace: U.S. corn crop at 57% planted (ahead of 52% five-year average) and 23% emerged; WASDE raised old crop ending stocks to 2.142 billion bushels while new crop projected at 1.957 billion bushels near estimates; South American production increased 10 MMT (Argentina +7, Brazil +3).
- • Wheat held firm but quality concerns emerge: Winter wheat output came in well below USDA estimates at 1.048 billion bushels; Kansas Wheat Quality Tour posted lowest average yield since 2023 at 38.9 bushels per acre (218 million bushel production total), signaling potential supply tightness ahead.
- • Soybean stocks compressed significantly lower: New crop U.S. ending stocks dropped 10 million bushels to 310 million bushels, well below market estimates; planted acreage at 49% by May 10 (well ahead of 36% average); export bookings weak at just 102,059 MT for the week ending May 7.
- • Livestock markets mixed; cattle supported by wholesale strength: Live cattle June contract up $5 (2.01%) with cash trade pushing into $260-265 range; choice boxed beef up 86 cents/cwt to $389.25; feeder cattle under pressure as CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $4.74 week-over-week to $370.09; New World screwworm cases in Mexico at 1,831 active with closest case 79 miles from U.S. border.
Summary
Agricultural commodity markets delivered a sharp correction this week as the absence of meaningful trade announcements from the Trump-Xi bilateral meeting upended trader positioning. The grain complex, which had built long positions ahead of the two-day summit, faced a sharp reversal when minimal details emerged on U.S.-China trade negotiations. This "buy the rumor/collapse in the non-news" dynamic underscores how commodity markets can swing violently not on negative news, but on the absence of positive catalysts—particularly when geopolitical leverage points have been heavily anticipated.
Corn bore the brunt of the week's selloff, with July futures closing down 15.5 cents and December off 12.5 cents. Despite this weakness, the supply picture remains constructive. The USDA's Crop Progress report showed 57% of the U.S. corn crop planted as of May 10, ahead of the 52% five-year average, with emergence at 23%. The May WASDE update lifted old crop ending stocks by 15 million bushels to 2.142 billion bushels, while new crop projections came in at 1.957 billion bushels, near market estimates. South American production increased 10 million metric tons (Argentina +7 MMT, Brazil +3 MMT), adding pressure from competing supplies. On the demand side, ethanol production rose 65,000 barrels per day to 1.082 million bpd, though export demand remained subdued with old crop corn bookings at just 684,786 metric tons for the week ending May 7. A House bill approving E15 ethanol sales passed and advanced to the Senate, which could support domestic consumption going forward. Managed money positions in corn futures and options increased 44,442 contracts to a net long of 299,483 contracts by May 12.
The wheat complex proved more resilient, with both hard red winter and hard red spring wheat futures posting gains despite late-week selling pressure. July Chicago wheat led at 16.75 cents higher, while July Kansas City wheat gained 12.25 cents and July Minneapolis spring wheat advanced 6.75 cents. However, wheat supply concerns are mounting. The USDA Crop Production report released this week pegged winter wheat output at 1.048 billion bushels, well below analyst expectations, with total wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels. The Kansas Wheat Quality Tour, conducted this week, reported an average yield of 38.9 bushels per acre and total production of 218 million bushels—the lowest average yield for the tour since 2023 and the second lowest since 2018, signaling deteriorating crop conditions. Winter wheat conditions dropped 3 percentage points to 28% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 weighted index declining 19 points to 277. Spring wheat planting stood at 53% with 23% emerged. WASDE held old crop stocks at 935 million bushels (down 3 MMT) and new crop stocks at 762 million bushels. Export activity remained modest, with old crop sales at 133,485 MT and new crop bookings at 221,143 MT for the week ending April 30. Managed money in CBOT wheat trimmed their net short position by 9,120 contracts to 19,023 contracts.
Soybean markets faced the steepest losses of the grain complex, with July futures closing down 31 cents and November off 18.75 cents on the Trump-Xi disappointment. July soybean meal surged $14.60 per ton, while July bean oil fell 44 points. The May WASDE delivered a significant downward revision to new crop ending stocks, dropping 10 million bushels to 310 million bushels—materially below market estimates and signaling tighter availability ahead. Planted acreage reached 49% by May 10, well ahead of the 36% five-year average, with 20% emerged. Export demand remains a constraint, with bookings at just 102,059 MT for the week ending May 7. April crush data from NOPA showed 211.86 million bushels processed—a monthly record but down 6.33% from April 2025. Managed money spec traders cut 6,802 contracts from their net long position, leaving them at 214,815 contracts by May 12.
Livestock markets displayed divergent strength. Live cattle June futures bounced $5 (2.01%) higher, with cash trade extending the rally into the $260-265 range nationally. Wholesale boxed beef prices climbed further, with choice boxes up 86 cents per cwt to $389.25 and select boxes rising $4.24 (1.1%) to $389.25 by Friday close, leaving the choice-select spread even. Weekly beef production reached 480.4 million pounds, up 1.4% from the prior week but down 2.3% year-over-year; year-to-date production is down 6.7% on a 9.3% decline in slaughter. Feeder cattle, however, faced persistent pressure, with August futures down $2.775 and the CME Feeder Cattle Index declining $4.74 to $370.09. APHIS reported 1,831 active New World screwworm cases in Mexico as of May 15, with 144 in bordering Tamaulipas, 62 in Nuevo Leon, and 12 in Coahuila—the closest case just 79 miles from the U.S. border, a potential biosecurity concern. Hog markets closed the week modestly higher, with June futures up 12 cents, though the CME Lean Hog Index retreated 54 cents to $90.48. The USDA Pork Carcass Cutout held flat at $97.56/cwt, with weekly pork production at 516.4 million pounds (down 3.6% from the prior week but up
Corn bore the brunt of the week's selloff, with July futures closing down 15.5 cents and December off 12.5 cents. Despite this weakness, the supply picture remains constructive. The USDA's Crop Progress report showed 57% of the U.S. corn crop planted as of May 10, ahead of the 52% five-year average, with emergence at 23%. The May WASDE update lifted old crop ending stocks by 15 million bushels to 2.142 billion bushels, while new crop projections came in at 1.957 billion bushels, near market estimates. South American production increased 10 million metric tons (Argentina +7 MMT, Brazil +3 MMT), adding pressure from competing supplies. On the demand side, ethanol production rose 65,000 barrels per day to 1.082 million bpd, though export demand remained subdued with old crop corn bookings at just 684,786 metric tons for the week ending May 7. A House bill approving E15 ethanol sales passed and advanced to the Senate, which could support domestic consumption going forward. Managed money positions in corn futures and options increased 44,442 contracts to a net long of 299,483 contracts by May 12.
The wheat complex proved more resilient, with both hard red winter and hard red spring wheat futures posting gains despite late-week selling pressure. July Chicago wheat led at 16.75 cents higher, while July Kansas City wheat gained 12.25 cents and July Minneapolis spring wheat advanced 6.75 cents. However, wheat supply concerns are mounting. The USDA Crop Production report released this week pegged winter wheat output at 1.048 billion bushels, well below analyst expectations, with total wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels. The Kansas Wheat Quality Tour, conducted this week, reported an average yield of 38.9 bushels per acre and total production of 218 million bushels—the lowest average yield for the tour since 2023 and the second lowest since 2018, signaling deteriorating crop conditions. Winter wheat conditions dropped 3 percentage points to 28% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 weighted index declining 19 points to 277. Spring wheat planting stood at 53% with 23% emerged. WASDE held old crop stocks at 935 million bushels (down 3 MMT) and new crop stocks at 762 million bushels. Export activity remained modest, with old crop sales at 133,485 MT and new crop bookings at 221,143 MT for the week ending April 30. Managed money in CBOT wheat trimmed their net short position by 9,120 contracts to 19,023 contracts.
Soybean markets faced the steepest losses of the grain complex, with July futures closing down 31 cents and November off 18.75 cents on the Trump-Xi disappointment. July soybean meal surged $14.60 per ton, while July bean oil fell 44 points. The May WASDE delivered a significant downward revision to new crop ending stocks, dropping 10 million bushels to 310 million bushels—materially below market estimates and signaling tighter availability ahead. Planted acreage reached 49% by May 10, well ahead of the 36% five-year average, with 20% emerged. Export demand remains a constraint, with bookings at just 102,059 MT for the week ending May 7. April crush data from NOPA showed 211.86 million bushels processed—a monthly record but down 6.33% from April 2025. Managed money spec traders cut 6,802 contracts from their net long position, leaving them at 214,815 contracts by May 12.
Livestock markets displayed divergent strength. Live cattle June futures bounced $5 (2.01%) higher, with cash trade extending the rally into the $260-265 range nationally. Wholesale boxed beef prices climbed further, with choice boxes up 86 cents per cwt to $389.25 and select boxes rising $4.24 (1.1%) to $389.25 by Friday close, leaving the choice-select spread even. Weekly beef production reached 480.4 million pounds, up 1.4% from the prior week but down 2.3% year-over-year; year-to-date production is down 6.7% on a 9.3% decline in slaughter. Feeder cattle, however, faced persistent pressure, with August futures down $2.775 and the CME Feeder Cattle Index declining $4.74 to $370.09. APHIS reported 1,831 active New World screwworm cases in Mexico as of May 15, with 144 in bordering Tamaulipas, 62 in Nuevo Leon, and 12 in Coahuila—the closest case just 79 miles from the U.S. border, a potential biosecurity concern. Hog markets closed the week modestly higher, with June futures up 12 cents, though the CME Lean Hog Index retreated 54 cents to $90.48. The USDA Pork Carcass Cutout held flat at $97.56/cwt, with weekly pork production at 516.4 million pounds (down 3.6% from the prior week but up
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