Key Takeaways
- • Corn futures surged above $5 for the first time in 3 years, with September contracts up 28¼ cents and December up 28 cents on the week, as spec funds added 126,008 contracts to reach a net long of 376,513 contracts as of August 25.
- • Wheat led the grain complex rally with Chicago soft red winter futures gaining 85½ cents (12.55%) and Kansas City hard red winter up 71½ cents (9.45%), driven by ongoing Black Sea geopolitical tensions and supply concerns; managed money reduced net short positions by 12,314 contracts in CBT wheat.
- • Soybean complex rallied alongside grains, with September up 51¼ cents and November up 48½ cents; new crop export sales hit 2.478 MMT, while spec funds added 46,592 contracts to reach a net long of 198,254 contracts, despite EPA small refiner exemption rumors pressuring bean oil.
- • Cattle markets sustained losses as weakness persisted, with October live cattle down $6.20, cash trade declining $1–3 from the prior week, and feeder cattle down $8.12; wholesale boxed beef choice prices fell $9.46/cwt to $376.23 as spec funds trimmed positions.
- • Cotton futures breached the 90-cent level (December contract) despite Friday weakness, driven by stressful weather conditions and crop progress lagging year-ago levels; spec traders added 17,173 contracts to reach a net long of 95,841 contracts.
Summary
Agricultural commodity markets experienced a broad-based rally during the week ending August 31, 2026, led by strength in the grain complex amid geopolitical supply concerns and favorable technical momentum. Corn futures closed above the $5 level for the first time in three years, marking a significant technical breakout. September corn advanced 28¼ cents and December gained 28 cents on the week, as the U.S. corn crop progressed to 86% in the dough stage by August 23, with 46% dented and 6% mature. Crop condition ratings declined 3 percentage points to 57% good/excellent. Ethanol production rebounded, rising 23,000 barrels per day to 1.112 million bpd in the week of August 21, while stocks increased 85,000 barrels to 25.2 million barrels. Export activity showed divergent patterns: old crop corn sales totaled only 31,220 MT, but new crop sales reached a marketing-year high of 1.066 MMT in the week of August 20. Speculative positioning strengthened significantly, with managed money funds adding 126,008 contracts to establish a net long of 376,513 contracts in corn futures and options as of August 25.
Wheat emerged as the strongest performer across the agricultural complex. Chicago soft red winter futures surged 85½ cents (12.55%), while Kansas City hard red winter futures gained 71½ cents on the September contract (9.45% gain), and hard red spring futures rose 47 cents. The rally reflected ongoing tensions in the Black Sea region, with Russia signaling potential escalation. Weekly crop progress data showed 62% of the U.S. spring wheat crop harvested as of August 23, with condition ratings holding at 51% good/excellent. Export sales for 2026/27 reached 402,531 MT during the week of August 20—the third-highest booking rate for the marketing year. Managed money reduced net short positions by 12,314 contracts in Chicago Board of Trade wheat, while speculative traders added 9,227 contracts to their net long in Kansas City wheat, reaching 44,062 contracts.
Soybeans followed the grain rally higher, with September advancing 51¼ cents and November up 48½ cents. Soybean meal futures gained $20.50 on the week, while September bean oil posted a 124-point advance. Buyers remained active despite reduced activity levels compared to the prior week, with 873,000 MT sold to China and unknown buyers via daily announcements. Bean oil faced downward pressure from reports that the Environmental Protection Agency was considering additional small refiner exemptions, though late-week reports suggested the agency planned to offset this with 500 million in additional quotas for 2027—announcement pending. The U.S. soybean crop reached 91% pod-set stage by August 23, with 6% dropping leaves. Crop conditions deteriorated 1 percentage point to 60% good/excellent. Export sales data showed 2025/26 bookings at 73,913 MT for the week ending August 20, with new crop business reaching 2.478 MMT. Spec funds added 46,592 contracts to their net long position, bringing the total to 198,254 contracts of futures and options.
Cotton futures breached the 90-cent level (December contract) despite weakness on Friday, posting a weekly gain of 303 points. Crop progress showed 81% of the U.S. cotton crop setting bolls as of August 23, with 20% bolls opening. Condition ratings declined 1 percentage point to 37% good/excellent, reflecting ongoing stress from weather patterns. Weekly export sales for 2026/27 totaled 95,726 running bales, with 2027/28 sales at 39,600 running bales. Shipments were reported at 181,025 running bales. The Adjusted World Price rose 190 points to 71.52 cents/lb. Speculative traders added 17,173 contracts to their net long position, reaching 95,841 contracts.
Cattle markets remained under pressure as liquidation continued. October live cattle futures fell $6.20 on the week, with cash trading opening near $218/cwt early in the week and firming to $222 by Friday—still down $1–3 from the prior week. September feeder cattle declined $8.12, and the CME Feeder Cattle Index dropped an additional $8.20 to $332.80. Wholesale boxed beef prices weakened as the Choice/Select spread tightened to $15.15. Choice boxes fell $9.46/cwt to $376.23, while Select declined 24 cents to $361.08. Weekly beef production increased 3.7% from the prior week to 478.8 million lbs, though this represented a 3.1% decline from the same week last year. Spec funds trimmed 4,073 contracts from their net long position in live cattle, settling at 57,441 contracts, while managed money cut 1,784 contracts in feeder cattle to a net long of 5,714 contracts.
Key calendar events for the following week include the weekly Export Inspections report (Monday morning), NASS Crop Progress report (Monday afternoon), first notice day for September grain futures (Monday), last trading day for August live cattle (Monday), monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils data (Tuesday), weekly EIA data (Wednesday), and USDA Export Sales data alongside Census trade data (Thursday).
Wheat emerged as the strongest performer across the agricultural complex. Chicago soft red winter futures surged 85½ cents (12.55%), while Kansas City hard red winter futures gained 71½ cents on the September contract (9.45% gain), and hard red spring futures rose 47 cents. The rally reflected ongoing tensions in the Black Sea region, with Russia signaling potential escalation. Weekly crop progress data showed 62% of the U.S. spring wheat crop harvested as of August 23, with condition ratings holding at 51% good/excellent. Export sales for 2026/27 reached 402,531 MT during the week of August 20—the third-highest booking rate for the marketing year. Managed money reduced net short positions by 12,314 contracts in Chicago Board of Trade wheat, while speculative traders added 9,227 contracts to their net long in Kansas City wheat, reaching 44,062 contracts.
Soybeans followed the grain rally higher, with September advancing 51¼ cents and November up 48½ cents. Soybean meal futures gained $20.50 on the week, while September bean oil posted a 124-point advance. Buyers remained active despite reduced activity levels compared to the prior week, with 873,000 MT sold to China and unknown buyers via daily announcements. Bean oil faced downward pressure from reports that the Environmental Protection Agency was considering additional small refiner exemptions, though late-week reports suggested the agency planned to offset this with 500 million in additional quotas for 2027—announcement pending. The U.S. soybean crop reached 91% pod-set stage by August 23, with 6% dropping leaves. Crop conditions deteriorated 1 percentage point to 60% good/excellent. Export sales data showed 2025/26 bookings at 73,913 MT for the week ending August 20, with new crop business reaching 2.478 MMT. Spec funds added 46,592 contracts to their net long position, bringing the total to 198,254 contracts of futures and options.
Cotton futures breached the 90-cent level (December contract) despite weakness on Friday, posting a weekly gain of 303 points. Crop progress showed 81% of the U.S. cotton crop setting bolls as of August 23, with 20% bolls opening. Condition ratings declined 1 percentage point to 37% good/excellent, reflecting ongoing stress from weather patterns. Weekly export sales for 2026/27 totaled 95,726 running bales, with 2027/28 sales at 39,600 running bales. Shipments were reported at 181,025 running bales. The Adjusted World Price rose 190 points to 71.52 cents/lb. Speculative traders added 17,173 contracts to their net long position, reaching 95,841 contracts.
Cattle markets remained under pressure as liquidation continued. October live cattle futures fell $6.20 on the week, with cash trading opening near $218/cwt early in the week and firming to $222 by Friday—still down $1–3 from the prior week. September feeder cattle declined $8.12, and the CME Feeder Cattle Index dropped an additional $8.20 to $332.80. Wholesale boxed beef prices weakened as the Choice/Select spread tightened to $15.15. Choice boxes fell $9.46/cwt to $376.23, while Select declined 24 cents to $361.08. Weekly beef production increased 3.7% from the prior week to 478.8 million lbs, though this represented a 3.1% decline from the same week last year. Spec funds trimmed 4,073 contracts from their net long position in live cattle, settling at 57,441 contracts, while managed money cut 1,784 contracts in feeder cattle to a net long of 5,714 contracts.
Key calendar events for the following week include the weekly Export Inspections report (Monday morning), NASS Crop Progress report (Monday afternoon), first notice day for September grain futures (Monday), last trading day for August live cattle (Monday), monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils data (Tuesday), weekly EIA data (Wednesday), and USDA Export Sales data alongside Census trade data (Thursday).
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