Key Takeaways
- • USDA cuts corn supply by 236 million bushels for 2026/27; December corn futures fell 6.5 cents despite the reduction, exemplifying "sell the fact" market dynamics where rallies preceding official data announcements give way to profit-taking.
- • Corn yield revised down 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5 bpa with total production at 15.8 billion bushels; old crop ending stocks reduced 23 mbu to 1.922 bbu and new crop carryout cut 86 mbu to 1.567 bbu.
- • Soybean November contracts declined 13.25 cents on late-week pressure despite 918,000 MT of sales to China and unknown buyers; spec traders hit record net long of 266,031 contracts as of September 8, signaling elevated positioning ahead of potential reversals.
- • Wheat complex weakened with CBT soft red winter down 8.75 cents and KC hard red winter off 3.75 cents; managed money trimmed net longs in CBT wheat by 10,392 contracts while spring wheat harvest reached 86% completion.
- • Live cattle October contracts gained $6.72 on firm cash trade ($224–225 range, up $2–6), but feeder cattle managed money reduced positioning by 727 contracts; wholesale boxed beef Choice fell 23 cents/cwt to $375.94 amid widening Choice/Select spread of $22.81.
Summary
Agricultural futures markets exhibited the classic "sell the fact" pattern during the week ending September 14, 2026, as major USDA crop revisions failed to sustain initial rallies. The primary dynamic centered on the September monthly Crop Production report and accompanying WASDE data, which reduced corn supply estimates but triggered profit-taking rather than continued buying. December corn futures declined 6.5 cents from the prior Friday despite the USDA cutting 236 million bushels from the 2026/27 balance sheet, illustrating how market participants had largely discounted the bearish production outlook in advance.
The corn complex faced material headwinds from tightening supply and slowing demand signals. The monthly Crop Production report revealed US corn yield contracted 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5 bpa, with total production down 213 million bushels from August's estimate at 15.8 billion bushels. WASDE data further pressured the market, trimming old crop ending stocks 23 mbu to 1.922 bbu and slashing new crop carryout by 86 mbu to 1.567 bbu. Crop Progress data showed 76% of the US corn crop dented by August 30, with 25% mature and only 5% harvested as of early September. Condition ratings slipped to 56% good/excellent. On the demand side, EIA ethanol production fell 11,000 barrels per day to 1.099 million bpd for the week of September 4, while ethanol stocks declined 152,000 barrels to 25.187 million barrels. Export sales for 2025/26 corn totaled 79,788 MT in the week ending September 3, while new crop sales reached 1.929 MMT with 993,349 MT in unshipped carryover. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec traders trimmed positions, reducing their net long by 5,891 contracts to 425,171 contracts as of September 8.
Soybeans experienced late-week pressure with November contracts declining 13.25 cents, despite strong export activity. Chinese buyers and undisclosed purchasers acquired 918,000 MT during the week, signaling sustained demand. The USDA's monthly Crop Production report showed soybean yield at 52.8 bpa, up 0.1 bpa from August, with total production rising 16 mbu to 4.535 bbu. Old crop stocks remained flat at 325 mbu while new crop carryout was cut 10 mbu to 310 mbu. Crop Progress data indicated 26% of US soybeans dropping leaves by September 6, with condition ratings steady at 58% good/excellent. Notably, spec traders added aggressively to positions, increasing their net long by 24,848 contracts to reach a record 266,031 contracts as of September 8. October soybean meal fell $1.40 while bean oil gained 30 points. Export cancellations for 2025/26 totaled 175,309 MT, with new crop sales at 2.637 MMT and 672,381 MT rolled over from prior-year unshipped sales.
The wheat complex declined broadly but at a measured pace. CBT soft red winter futures fell 8.75 cents, while KC hard red winter December contracts slipped 3.75 cents. HRS futures remained steady Friday. NASS Crop Progress data showed 86% of spring wheat harvested as of September 6, with winter wheat planting at just 2% as of the prior Sunday. The USDA left the US wheat balance sheet unchanged, though world stocks increased 3.04 MMT to 276.29 MMT. Export sales for 2026/27 wheat were minimal at 194,233 MT in the week ending September 3. Managed money trimmed net longs in CBT wheat by 10,392 contracts to 4,262 contracts as of September 8, while spec traders in KC wheat added 964 contracts to 51,248 contracts.
Livestock markets showed divergent trends. Live cattle October contracts gained $6.72 on the week as cash prices firmed in the $224–225 range, up $2–6 from the prior week. September feeder cattle rose another $13.00, though the CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $2.42 to $331.22. Wholesale boxed beef prices weakened, with Choice boxes down 23 cents/cwt to $375.94 and Select falling $2.74 to $353.13, widening the spread to $22.81. Weekly beef production declined 3.8% from the prior week at 448 million pounds, with year-to-date production down 5.2% on a 7.6% slaughter decline. Spec funds trimmed cattle futures positioning by 664 contracts to 47,250 net long, while managed money in feeder cattle reduced positions by 727 contracts to just 6,781 contracts. Hog futures declined 77 cents in October contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index fell $2.86 to $88.22 as of September 9. The USDA Pork Carcass Cutout lost $3.06 on the week to $89.80/cwt, with only ham primal trading higher while belly fell $23.40. Weekly pork production declined 0.7% to 481.6 million pounds, though year-to-date production remained up 0.1% despite a 1% slaughter reduction. Managed money trimmed net short positions in lean hog futures by 4,767 contracts to 23,556 contracts net short.
Cotton futures ended the week lower with December contracts down 27 points. The USDA revised cotton yield down 22 lbs per acre to 776 lbs/acre and cut production 410,000 bales to 13.2 million bales. WASDE trimmed old crop US stocks 50,000 bales to 4.15 million bales, with new crop carryout down 400,000 bales to 3.6 million bales. Crop Progress data showed 40% of the US crop with bolls opening and 7% harvested as of September 8, with condition ratings up
The corn complex faced material headwinds from tightening supply and slowing demand signals. The monthly Crop Production report revealed US corn yield contracted 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5 bpa, with total production down 213 million bushels from August's estimate at 15.8 billion bushels. WASDE data further pressured the market, trimming old crop ending stocks 23 mbu to 1.922 bbu and slashing new crop carryout by 86 mbu to 1.567 bbu. Crop Progress data showed 76% of the US corn crop dented by August 30, with 25% mature and only 5% harvested as of early September. Condition ratings slipped to 56% good/excellent. On the demand side, EIA ethanol production fell 11,000 barrels per day to 1.099 million bpd for the week of September 4, while ethanol stocks declined 152,000 barrels to 25.187 million barrels. Export sales for 2025/26 corn totaled 79,788 MT in the week ending September 3, while new crop sales reached 1.929 MMT with 993,349 MT in unshipped carryover. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec traders trimmed positions, reducing their net long by 5,891 contracts to 425,171 contracts as of September 8.
Soybeans experienced late-week pressure with November contracts declining 13.25 cents, despite strong export activity. Chinese buyers and undisclosed purchasers acquired 918,000 MT during the week, signaling sustained demand. The USDA's monthly Crop Production report showed soybean yield at 52.8 bpa, up 0.1 bpa from August, with total production rising 16 mbu to 4.535 bbu. Old crop stocks remained flat at 325 mbu while new crop carryout was cut 10 mbu to 310 mbu. Crop Progress data indicated 26% of US soybeans dropping leaves by September 6, with condition ratings steady at 58% good/excellent. Notably, spec traders added aggressively to positions, increasing their net long by 24,848 contracts to reach a record 266,031 contracts as of September 8. October soybean meal fell $1.40 while bean oil gained 30 points. Export cancellations for 2025/26 totaled 175,309 MT, with new crop sales at 2.637 MMT and 672,381 MT rolled over from prior-year unshipped sales.
The wheat complex declined broadly but at a measured pace. CBT soft red winter futures fell 8.75 cents, while KC hard red winter December contracts slipped 3.75 cents. HRS futures remained steady Friday. NASS Crop Progress data showed 86% of spring wheat harvested as of September 6, with winter wheat planting at just 2% as of the prior Sunday. The USDA left the US wheat balance sheet unchanged, though world stocks increased 3.04 MMT to 276.29 MMT. Export sales for 2026/27 wheat were minimal at 194,233 MT in the week ending September 3. Managed money trimmed net longs in CBT wheat by 10,392 contracts to 4,262 contracts as of September 8, while spec traders in KC wheat added 964 contracts to 51,248 contracts.
Livestock markets showed divergent trends. Live cattle October contracts gained $6.72 on the week as cash prices firmed in the $224–225 range, up $2–6 from the prior week. September feeder cattle rose another $13.00, though the CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $2.42 to $331.22. Wholesale boxed beef prices weakened, with Choice boxes down 23 cents/cwt to $375.94 and Select falling $2.74 to $353.13, widening the spread to $22.81. Weekly beef production declined 3.8% from the prior week at 448 million pounds, with year-to-date production down 5.2% on a 7.6% slaughter decline. Spec funds trimmed cattle futures positioning by 664 contracts to 47,250 net long, while managed money in feeder cattle reduced positions by 727 contracts to just 6,781 contracts. Hog futures declined 77 cents in October contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index fell $2.86 to $88.22 as of September 9. The USDA Pork Carcass Cutout lost $3.06 on the week to $89.80/cwt, with only ham primal trading higher while belly fell $23.40. Weekly pork production declined 0.7% to 481.6 million pounds, though year-to-date production remained up 0.1% despite a 1% slaughter reduction. Managed money trimmed net short positions in lean hog futures by 4,767 contracts to 23,556 contracts net short.
Cotton futures ended the week lower with December contracts down 27 points. The USDA revised cotton yield down 22 lbs per acre to 776 lbs/acre and cut production 410,000 bales to 13.2 million bales. WASDE trimmed old crop US stocks 50,000 bales to 4.15 million bales, with new crop carryout down 400,000 bales to 3.6 million bales. Crop Progress data showed 40% of the US crop with bolls opening and 7% harvested as of September 8, with condition ratings up
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