Key Takeaways
- • Cotton ending stocks revised down to 3.70 million bales in the WASDE report, with July delivery activity at 527 contracts; condition remains well below year-ago levels despite scattered improvement in some regions and deterioration in others.
- • Coffee markets rallied on First Notice Day deliveries and harvest delays in Brazil and Vietnam, with ICO average price at 258.73 ct/lb; New York trends are up with support at 268.00 and resistance at 285.00 for September contracts.
- • Cocoa built to new recent highs with 2,235 total July deliveries posted (235 contracts overnight); daily trends turning up amid West African main crop harvest and positive rainfall for next-crop development.
- • Sugar markets higher again on geopolitical relief—Iran war paused with memorandum of understanding and Geneva negotiations ongoing; good global supplies support mixed-to-down chart trends despite elevated long positions.
- • Open interest declined across all major softs: cotton down 55,142 contracts, coffee down 39,313, sugar down 49,075, and cocoa down 23,986 as of June 16, 2026, signaling position unwinding and reduced trader engagement.
Summary
Cotton futures declined on long liquidation as the USDA's WASDE report estimated ending stocks at 3.70 million bales, reflecting reduced beginning and ending inventory levels. Squaring and emergence metrics ran near or above normal last week, though overall crop condition remains materially behind year-ago levels. Scattered showers continue in Texas, the Delta, and Southeast regions with variable temperatures expected, creating mixed technical chart signals. ICE reported 527 contracts posted for July delivery, with support building at 75.10, 72.10, and 71.00 and resistance at 78.30, 79.10, and 80.00 for the July contract. Cotton's open interest fell 55,142 contracts week-over-week to 427,110, with non-commercial traders holding 92,247 long and 41,242 short positions as of June 16.
Coffee futures rallied in both New York and London markets following First Notice Day activity and harvest delays reported in Brazil and Vietnam. The International Coffee Organization average price stands at 258.73 ct/lb, with ICE reporting minimal delivery activity (zero notices posted on the reporting day, three total for June). New York September trends are up with support at 268.00 and 260.00, and resistance at 285.00 and 294.00, while London September shows mixed signals. Global production conditions remain generally favorable, though Brazil has turned mostly dry and Vietnam producers are withholding sales awaiting higher prices. Coffee open interest declined 39,313 contracts to 233,201.
Cocoa futures moved to recent highs in both New York and London with daily trends turning up. ICE New York registered 235 notices posted for July delivery (2,235 total for the month), reflecting active physical engagement. West Africa's main crop harvest is underway with positive rainfall supporting next-crop prospects, though increased production potential from Asia and Central America is also reported. Weak downstream demand—attributed to high prices from the prior year—is expected to persist. September support levels sit at 4,400, 4,190, and 3,960 in New York with resistance at 4,850 and 5,190, while London tracks similar uptrend structure. Cocoa open interest fell 23,986 contracts to 235,318.
Sugar futures advanced again on geopolitical risk reduction, as Iran and counterparties signed a memorandum of understanding with negotiations continuing in Geneva. Both New York and London markets benefited, though technical trends are mixed-to-down on daily charts. Global supplies remain abundant due to favorable growing conditions for cane in Brazil and India, with drier weather accelerating harvests in those regions. Sugar open interest declined 49,075 contracts to 1,153,487, with commercial short positions heavily represented at 285,974 contracts and non-commercial longs at 144,091. October support resides at 1,370, 1,340, and 1,310 with resistance at 1,410 and 1,450 in New York.
Across all softs commodities, declining open interest reflects broader position reduction and reduced speculative engagement. Freezing concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) remains under pressure with Florida still experiencing dry conditions, though Mexico shows good production weather and eastern Brazil has received scattered showers. Trends in FCOJ are mixed-to-down with July support at 142.00 and resistance at 178.00.
Coffee futures rallied in both New York and London markets following First Notice Day activity and harvest delays reported in Brazil and Vietnam. The International Coffee Organization average price stands at 258.73 ct/lb, with ICE reporting minimal delivery activity (zero notices posted on the reporting day, three total for June). New York September trends are up with support at 268.00 and 260.00, and resistance at 285.00 and 294.00, while London September shows mixed signals. Global production conditions remain generally favorable, though Brazil has turned mostly dry and Vietnam producers are withholding sales awaiting higher prices. Coffee open interest declined 39,313 contracts to 233,201.
Cocoa futures moved to recent highs in both New York and London with daily trends turning up. ICE New York registered 235 notices posted for July delivery (2,235 total for the month), reflecting active physical engagement. West Africa's main crop harvest is underway with positive rainfall supporting next-crop prospects, though increased production potential from Asia and Central America is also reported. Weak downstream demand—attributed to high prices from the prior year—is expected to persist. September support levels sit at 4,400, 4,190, and 3,960 in New York with resistance at 4,850 and 5,190, while London tracks similar uptrend structure. Cocoa open interest fell 23,986 contracts to 235,318.
Sugar futures advanced again on geopolitical risk reduction, as Iran and counterparties signed a memorandum of understanding with negotiations continuing in Geneva. Both New York and London markets benefited, though technical trends are mixed-to-down on daily charts. Global supplies remain abundant due to favorable growing conditions for cane in Brazil and India, with drier weather accelerating harvests in those regions. Sugar open interest declined 49,075 contracts to 1,153,487, with commercial short positions heavily represented at 285,974 contracts and non-commercial longs at 144,091. October support resides at 1,370, 1,340, and 1,310 with resistance at 1,410 and 1,450 in New York.
Across all softs commodities, declining open interest reflects broader position reduction and reduced speculative engagement. Freezing concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) remains under pressure with Florida still experiencing dry conditions, though Mexico shows good production weather and eastern Brazil has received scattered showers. Trends in FCOJ are mixed-to-down with July support at 142.00 and resistance at 178.00.
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