Softs Report 10/09/2026

Cotton was near unchanged in trading ahead of the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, scheduled for release later on October 9, 2026. Traders anticipate slightly smaller production, exports and lower ending stocks. Weather is turning cooler and wetter, particularly in West Texas, where harvest progress has been interrupted and rain may create quality problems with open bolls. A hurricane could bring very heavy rain to southern areas late in the day. USDA reported that crop conditions stand at 33% good to excellent, with 23% of the crop harvested and 74% of bolls open. ICE reported no October delivery notices, leaving total October deliveries at 14 contracts. Another report said cotton had fallen the prior session on long liquidation by speculators, and weekly export sales data showed upland net sales of 165.1 thousand bales for the week ended October 1.

Arabica coffee prices fell in New York and London, with New York surrendering the prior sessions' gains while London extended its advance. Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, and crop conditions are improving with good weather, although producers are holding back sales following recent price weakness. Quality concerns linked to El Niño-related rain in Brazil have provided near-term support. Indonesia has nearly finished its harvest, Asian conditions are considered good, and Central American premiums are at or near record highs because of drought. Vietnam exported 1.45 million metric tons in the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2%. The ICO composite price was reported at 257.85 cents per pound in one edition and 269.61 cents per pound in another, and New York December trends remain mixed to up.

Sugar prices in New York and London declined again, and both markets are showing reversal formations. Drought in Brazil's center-south has eased as rains have returned, but refineries are diverting cane to ethanol rather than sugar. India's output has declined after hot, dry conditions, and El Niño could weigh on production elsewhere in Asia. Higher global petroleum prices are supporting ethanol and could reduce sugar output further. Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rain.

Cocoa rose in New York and London, with weekly trends turning up and charts forming a bottoming pattern. The West African main crop harvest is underway, but dry weather has set in for the next crop. A Reuters survey sees Ivory Coast's main crop falling about 17% this season, and Ivorian farmers warn poor rainfall could end the September-to-February crop early. Arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 18,000 metric tons in the week to October 4, bringing the 2025/26 season total to 54,500 tons. Demand is recovering from last year's high prices, while a large 2025/26 global surplus keeps near-term supplies ample.

FCOJ futures were slightly higher on the day, with mixed daily chart trends. Showers are returning to Florida groves, weather in Mexico is favorable, and Brazil's rainy season is starting on schedule.