Key Takeaways
- • Cotton rose slightly as a hurricane caused heavy rain and reported crop damage in the Delta; USDA put conditions at 33% good to excellent with the crop 34% harvested and 82% of bolls open.
- • USDA's Friday report estimated world cotton production at 13.442 billion bales with ending stocks at 380 million bales, up from 360 million last month.
- • Brazil's September green coffee exports rose 3.2% to 3.58 million bags according to Cecafe, while Colombia's 2025/26 output fell 15% to 12.65 million bags.
- • Central American coffee premiums are at or near record highs due to drought, and Vietnam exported 1.45 million metric tons in the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2%.
- • Ivory Coast's main cocoa crop is seen falling around 17% this season per a Reuters survey, and arrivals at Ivorian ports were 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from last year.
Summary
Cotton prices edged higher as a hurricane that struck southern areas over the weekend brought heavy rains, with reports of damage to crops and crop losses in the Delta. Rain in Texas was also reported to be affecting harvest operations. USDA data showed cotton conditions at 33% good to excellent, with the crop 34% harvested and 82% of bolls open. USDA's Friday report estimated production at 13.442 billion bales and yield at 790 pounds per acre. Ending stocks were projected at 380 million bales, up from 360 million last month, while world ending stocks were put at 68 million bales, compared with 69.86 million previously.
In coffee, New York and London both rose as Brazilian sellers were active but less so than earlier, while producers held back on sales after recent price weakness. Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, and rains are supporting next-crop development. Arabica prices have received near-term support from quality concerns tied to excess El Nino-linked rain. Central America has been dry, pushing premiums to or near record highs. Cecafe reported Brazil's September green coffee exports rose 3.2% to 3.58 million bags, though lower arabica shipments limited growth. Colombia's 2025/26 production fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, and Vietnam exported 1.45 million metric tons in the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2%. The ICO average price was 261.81 cents per pound.
Citrus and sugar markets were mixed. USDA estimated US orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million a year earlier; trees are reported to be recovering with Florida showers. In sugar, New York and London were slightly lower in range trading. Rains have returned to Brazil's center-south, but refineries are favoring ethanol over sugar, and higher petroleum prices are supporting ethanol and could reduce sugar output. Brazilian production dropped 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains, and Indian output has been reduced by hot, dry conditions.
Cocoa prices in New York and London were slightly higher, though weekly trends remain mixed. West Africa's main crop harvest is underway, but dry conditions in Ivory Coast have raised concerns for 2026/27 production. A Reuters survey pegs Ivory Coast's main crop down around 17% this season, and Ivorian farmers warned poor rainfall could end the September-to-February main crop early. Arrivals at Ivorian ports were 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% year over year. Analysts note that a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps near-term supplies ample, and demand is beginning to recover after last year's high prices.
In coffee, New York and London both rose as Brazilian sellers were active but less so than earlier, while producers held back on sales after recent price weakness. Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, and rains are supporting next-crop development. Arabica prices have received near-term support from quality concerns tied to excess El Nino-linked rain. Central America has been dry, pushing premiums to or near record highs. Cecafe reported Brazil's September green coffee exports rose 3.2% to 3.58 million bags, though lower arabica shipments limited growth. Colombia's 2025/26 production fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, and Vietnam exported 1.45 million metric tons in the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2%. The ICO average price was 261.81 cents per pound.
Citrus and sugar markets were mixed. USDA estimated US orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million a year earlier; trees are reported to be recovering with Florida showers. In sugar, New York and London were slightly lower in range trading. Rains have returned to Brazil's center-south, but refineries are favoring ethanol over sugar, and higher petroleum prices are supporting ethanol and could reduce sugar output. Brazilian production dropped 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains, and Indian output has been reduced by hot, dry conditions.
Cocoa prices in New York and London were slightly higher, though weekly trends remain mixed. West Africa's main crop harvest is underway, but dry conditions in Ivory Coast have raised concerns for 2026/27 production. A Reuters survey pegs Ivory Coast's main crop down around 17% this season, and Ivorian farmers warned poor rainfall could end the September-to-February main crop early. Arrivals at Ivorian ports were 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% year over year. Analysts note that a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps near-term supplies ample, and demand is beginning to recover after last year's high prices.
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