Key Takeaways
- • Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from last year, while Ivory Coast's main crop is seen falling around 17% this season according to a Reuters survey.
- • Arabica coffee prices were boosted near term by quality concerns tied to excess El Nino-linked rains in Brazil, while Central America premiums are at or near record highs due to drought.
- • USDA estimates US orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, with Florida output at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million a year earlier.
- • Cotton conditions stand at 35% good to excellent, with the crop 41% harvested and 85% of bolls opening, as hurricane-related crop damage in the Delta and dry forecasts for Texas and the Southeast weigh on the market.
- • Brazilian sugar production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains, while Brazilian mills favor ethanol production as higher petroleum prices support ethanol values.
Summary
Soft commodities closed mixed to higher in the October 21, 2026 report, with cotton, cocoa, and sugar among the main movers. In cocoa, New York and London both closed higher, although daily trends are turning down. A large main crop harvest has finished in West Africa, but conditions have turned dry for the next crop. Dry weather in Ivory Coast has raised concerns about 2026/27 production, though a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps near-term supplies ample. According to a Reuters survey, Ivory Coast's main crop is seen falling around 17% this season, and Ivorian farmers warned that poor rainfall risks bringing the September-to-February main crop to an early end. Arrivals at Ivorian ports totaled 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from a year earlier. Production potential is reportedly increasing in Asia and Central America, and demand has begun to recover after high prices last year.
In coffee, New York and London both closed lower as Brazilian selling continued, though at a slower pace than before, and speculators liquidated long positions. Brazilian producers are holding back sales following recent price weakness. The Brazilian harvest is nearly complete, and rains are improving crop conditions, with the wet season starting on schedule. Arabica prices have received near-term support from quality concerns linked to excess El Nino-related rains. The ICO average price stood at 269.63 cents per pound. Central America has been dry, and premiums there are at or near record highs.
In cotton, prices closed higher on strength in crude oil and reports of crop damage and losses in the Delta after a hurricane brought heavy rains to southern areas. USDA reported crop conditions at 35% good to excellent, with the crop 41% harvested and 85% of bolls opening. Dry conditions are forecast for Texas, the Delta, and the Southeast, and temperatures will be warm across growing areas.
In FCOJ, futures closed higher on follow-through speculative buying. USDA estimates US orange production at 61.7 million boxes versus 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes compared with 13 million. Showers in Florida are supporting tree recovery. Conditions are considered good in Mexico, and the Brazilian rainy season is starting on time.
In sugar, New York and London closed slightly higher, but trends remain mixed and are still attempting to turn lower. Rains have returned to Brazil's center-south after a drought, but refineries are favoring ethanol over sugar. Indian output is lower after hot, dry weather, and Asian production could be hurt by El Nino. Higher world petroleum prices support ethanol values and could reduce sugar output. Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains.
In coffee, New York and London both closed lower as Brazilian selling continued, though at a slower pace than before, and speculators liquidated long positions. Brazilian producers are holding back sales following recent price weakness. The Brazilian harvest is nearly complete, and rains are improving crop conditions, with the wet season starting on schedule. Arabica prices have received near-term support from quality concerns linked to excess El Nino-related rains. The ICO average price stood at 269.63 cents per pound. Central America has been dry, and premiums there are at or near record highs.
In cotton, prices closed higher on strength in crude oil and reports of crop damage and losses in the Delta after a hurricane brought heavy rains to southern areas. USDA reported crop conditions at 35% good to excellent, with the crop 41% harvested and 85% of bolls opening. Dry conditions are forecast for Texas, the Delta, and the Southeast, and temperatures will be warm across growing areas.
In FCOJ, futures closed higher on follow-through speculative buying. USDA estimates US orange production at 61.7 million boxes versus 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes compared with 13 million. Showers in Florida are supporting tree recovery. Conditions are considered good in Mexico, and the Brazilian rainy season is starting on time.
In sugar, New York and London closed slightly higher, but trends remain mixed and are still attempting to turn lower. Rains have returned to Brazil's center-south after a drought, but refineries are favoring ethanol over sugar. Indian output is lower after hot, dry weather, and Asian production could be hurt by El Nino. Higher world petroleum prices support ethanol values and could reduce sugar output. Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains.
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