Key Takeaways
- • Cotton futures edged higher as crude oil strength and reports of Delta crop damage from a hurricane supported prices; December support sits at 79.30, 77.10 and 75.50 with resistance at 82.40, 84.00 and 85.30.
- • USDA data shows only 35% of the US cotton crop rated good to excellent, with 41% harvested and 85% of bolls open, while rain delayed harvest in Texas and Kansas.
- • Brazilian coffee producers are holding back sales after recent price weakness, and Central American coffee premiums are at or near record highs due to drought.
- • Ivory Coast's main cocoa crop is seen falling around 17% this season according to a Reuters survey, and cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports were down 52% year over year at 23,000 metric tons.
- • Sugar prices fell in New York and London as Brazilian refineries shifted output toward ethanol, with higher petroleum prices supporting ethanol economics.
Summary
Cotton was a little higher on strength in crude oil futures and reports of crop damage in the Delta following a hurricane that brought heavy rain to southern areas over the prior weekend. Rain in Texas and north into Kansas also disrupted harvest operations. USDA data showed 35% of the crop in good to excellent condition, with 41% harvested and 85% of bolls opening. Forecasts call for continued dryness in Texas, the Delta and the Southeast, with warm temperatures across all growing areas. ICE reported no notices posted against October futures, with total October deliveries at 14 contracts. For the week ended October 15, USDA reported upland cotton net commitment changes of 199.6 thousand running bales, with total commitments of 5,448.7 thousand bales.
In coffee, New York rose while London fell as Brazilian selling continued but at a slower pace. Producers are holding back sales after recent price weakness, and the Brazilian harvest is nearly complete. Arabica prices have received near-term support from quality concerns tied to excess El Nino-linked rains in Brazil. Premiums in Central America are at or near record highs due to drought, while Mexico is in good condition. The ICO average price stood at 270.31 cents per pound.
In cocoa, New York and London closed slightly higher, though daily trends are turning down. Dry conditions in Ivory Coast raise concerns about 2026/27 production, although a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps short-term supplies ample. A Reuters survey put Ivory Coast's main crop down around 17% this season, and Ivorian farmers warned that poor rainfall could end the September-to-February main crop early. Arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from a year earlier.
Sugar fell in New York and London, with trends still attempting to turn lower. Rains have returned to Brazil's center-south after drought concerns, but refineries are producing ethanol at the expense of sugar. Indian output has declined after hot, dry conditions, and El Nino could hurt production elsewhere in Asia. Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains, according to the report.
FCOJ futures were lower but remain in a range. USDA estimated US orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million a year earlier.
In coffee, New York rose while London fell as Brazilian selling continued but at a slower pace. Producers are holding back sales after recent price weakness, and the Brazilian harvest is nearly complete. Arabica prices have received near-term support from quality concerns tied to excess El Nino-linked rains in Brazil. Premiums in Central America are at or near record highs due to drought, while Mexico is in good condition. The ICO average price stood at 270.31 cents per pound.
In cocoa, New York and London closed slightly higher, though daily trends are turning down. Dry conditions in Ivory Coast raise concerns about 2026/27 production, although a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps short-term supplies ample. A Reuters survey put Ivory Coast's main crop down around 17% this season, and Ivorian farmers warned that poor rainfall could end the September-to-February main crop early. Arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from a year earlier.
Sugar fell in New York and London, with trends still attempting to turn lower. Rains have returned to Brazil's center-south after drought concerns, but refineries are producing ethanol at the expense of sugar. Indian output has declined after hot, dry conditions, and El Nino could hurt production elsewhere in Asia. Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains, according to the report.
FCOJ futures were lower but remain in a range. USDA estimated US orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million a year earlier.
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