Key Takeaways
- • Grain Complex Selloff: Corn May futures fell 11¼ cents and wheat markets experienced double-digit losses across all three exchanges (Minneapolis down 35¼ cents, Chicago down 27¼ cents, Kansas City down 25 cents) as speculative traders liquidated long positions from recent rallies.
- • Managed Money Position Reductions: Corn spec traders cut 49,342 contracts week-over-week to a net long of 218,632 contracts; wheat specs flipped to a net short of 5,633 contracts in CBT wheat; cotton shorts were reduced by 10,206 contracts to just 2,020 contracts net short—indicating broad-based profit-taking across grain and oilseed markets.
- • Crop Conditions and Balance Sheet Pressure: Winter wheat condition ratings came in at 35% good/excellent versus 48% at the same time last year; the Brugler500 crop health index fell to 298 points (30 points below prior year); USDA maintained US corn ending stocks at 2.13 billion bushels with no changes to the balance sheet.
- • Cotton Rally Continues: May cotton futures advanced 230 points with spec traders covering short positions; the Adjusted World Price rose 175 points to 58.74 cents/lb; USDA kept US cotton balance sheet steady at 4.4 million bales (matching 5-year average and 1% ahead of year-ago levels).
- • Livestock Mixed Performance: April live cattle gained $5.57 with cash trade firming at $246 in the South and $250 in the North; June hog futures declined 75 cents with CME Lean Hog Index rebounding 12 cents to $90.29; beef production remains down 6.5% year-over-year at 461.4 million lbs.
Summary
Agricultural futures markets entered a broad liquidation phase during the week ending April 13, 2026, as speculative traders systematically reduced long positions across grain and oilseed complex while managed money closed out shorts in cotton. The selloff represented a technical correction following the recent rally in these commodities, with May corn contracts bearing the brunt at 11¼ cents lower. The wheat complex experienced sharper declines across all three regional markets: Minneapolis CBOT down 35¼ cents, Chicago down 27¼ cents, and Kansas City off 25 cents in May deliveries.
Positioning data from the Commitment of Traders reports revealed substantial position trimming by speculative interests. Corn managed money reduced net long exposure by 49,342 contracts to 218,632 contracts as of April 7. In the wheat complex, spec traders executed a notable tactical shift, flipping CBT wheat from net long to a net short position of 5,633 contracts—representing a 14,274 contract position reversal for the week. Kansas City wheat specs cut 5,909 contracts from net longs to 15,608 contracts. Cotton presented a contrarian narrative, with managed money aggressively covering short positions by reducing net shorts by 10,206 contracts to just 2,020 contracts, allowing the market to extend gains with May futures up 230 points and the Adjusted World Price climbing 175 points to 58.74 cents/lb.
Fundamental data underscored structural headwinds in the grain markets. The USDA's WASDE report maintained US corn ending stocks at 2.13 billion bushels with no changes to the balance sheet, while planting progress remained near historical averages at 3% for corn. Winter wheat condition ratings deteriorated year-over-year, with only 35% of the crop rated good/excellent compared to 48% at the same time in 2025. The Brugler500 crop health index reflected this weakness, declining to 298 points—30 points below the prior year's opening level. Wheat heading progress stood at 7% as of the Monday Crop Progress report.
In livestock markets, live cattle demonstrated resilience with April futures gaining $5.57 for the week, supported by firmer cash trade at $246 in the South and $250 in the North. However, wholesale boxed beef prices weakened, with Choice down $6.88/cwt (-1.8%) to $380.90 and Select off $4.85 (-1.3%) to $381.34. Weekly beef production declined 4% week-over-week and 6.5% year-over-year at 461.4 million lbs. Hog futures reversed course, with June down 75 cents as managed money trimmed another 3,853 contracts from net long positions to 98,061 contracts. Pork production increased 3.1% week-over-week but remained essentially flat year-over-year at 539.4 million lbs.
Technical analysis of December corn indicated extended weakness, with prices breaking below key moving average support and failing to hold the 40-day and 2/3 speedline support levels at $4.78 ½ and $4.75 respectively. MACD generated a bearish sell signal while the market approached oversold conditions on stochastics and RSI indicators. The next support level anchors at the 50% retracement ($4.72), with further downside risk toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $4.65 ½.
Positioning data from the Commitment of Traders reports revealed substantial position trimming by speculative interests. Corn managed money reduced net long exposure by 49,342 contracts to 218,632 contracts as of April 7. In the wheat complex, spec traders executed a notable tactical shift, flipping CBT wheat from net long to a net short position of 5,633 contracts—representing a 14,274 contract position reversal for the week. Kansas City wheat specs cut 5,909 contracts from net longs to 15,608 contracts. Cotton presented a contrarian narrative, with managed money aggressively covering short positions by reducing net shorts by 10,206 contracts to just 2,020 contracts, allowing the market to extend gains with May futures up 230 points and the Adjusted World Price climbing 175 points to 58.74 cents/lb.
Fundamental data underscored structural headwinds in the grain markets. The USDA's WASDE report maintained US corn ending stocks at 2.13 billion bushels with no changes to the balance sheet, while planting progress remained near historical averages at 3% for corn. Winter wheat condition ratings deteriorated year-over-year, with only 35% of the crop rated good/excellent compared to 48% at the same time in 2025. The Brugler500 crop health index reflected this weakness, declining to 298 points—30 points below the prior year's opening level. Wheat heading progress stood at 7% as of the Monday Crop Progress report.
In livestock markets, live cattle demonstrated resilience with April futures gaining $5.57 for the week, supported by firmer cash trade at $246 in the South and $250 in the North. However, wholesale boxed beef prices weakened, with Choice down $6.88/cwt (-1.8%) to $380.90 and Select off $4.85 (-1.3%) to $381.34. Weekly beef production declined 4% week-over-week and 6.5% year-over-year at 461.4 million lbs. Hog futures reversed course, with June down 75 cents as managed money trimmed another 3,853 contracts from net long positions to 98,061 contracts. Pork production increased 3.1% week-over-week but remained essentially flat year-over-year at 539.4 million lbs.
Technical analysis of December corn indicated extended weakness, with prices breaking below key moving average support and failing to hold the 40-day and 2/3 speedline support levels at $4.78 ½ and $4.75 respectively. MACD generated a bearish sell signal while the market approached oversold conditions on stochastics and RSI indicators. The next support level anchors at the 50% retracement ($4.72), with further downside risk toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $4.65 ½.
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